IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They may not be in trouble now, but if it is a Biden midterm in 2022, Bustos/Kind will be in trouble then. If IL Dems have half a brain, they will draw a ridiculous tentacle from Bustos' district into Chicagoland.

There is little need to draw it to Chicago Land, just strip the rurals and add Mcclean county. There isn't even enough room in Chicago land.

Time for hardcore Republican Driftless Area. I expected this in 2022, it might be coming earlier than expected.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Read my lips:

The Republicans are not going to win IA-2. Anyone who says otherwise is either a dumbass, someone who doesn't live in Iowa, or someone who wants to sell you an agenda.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This thread is Exhibit A why I'm not going to be looking at Atlas on E-Day

I mean if you showed up the site would probably crash on Nov 3 from traffic lol

[It’s so Joever]

Read my lips:

The Republicans are not going to win IA-2. Anyone who says otherwise is either a dumbass, someone who doesn't live in Iowa, or someone who wants to sell you an agenda.

I will enjoy quoting this

[libertpaulian]

So, what ABC/WaPo polls get released tonight?  National?  State?

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

No, Europe didn't handle it the right way. Certain countries, like Germany, did. South Korea or Singapore are good examples as well. We couldn't even get the basics right, such as our leader telling everyone to put on a mask!

South Korea and Singapore are not applicable to the western democracies.
The people in the western democracies are free and they don't like being told what to do.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It's like Atlas has collectively forgotten how outlier polls work.

[BudgieForce]

So, what ABC/WaPo polls get released tonight?  National?  State?

It's got to be national. We're almost 3 days away from the election and we've gotten almost no national numbers from the major pollsters.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Read my lips:

The Republicans are not going to win IA-2. Anyone who says otherwise is either a dumbass, someone who doesn't live in Iowa, or someone who wants to sell you an agenda.

I will enjoy quoting this

If you know anything about Iowan electoral politics, you know I'm right.

[libertpaulian]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

No, Europe didn't handle it the right way. Certain countries, like Germany, did. South Korea or Singapore are good examples as well. We couldn't even get the basics right, such as our leader telling everyone to put on a mask!

South Korea and Singapore are not applicable to the western democracies.
The people in the western democracies are free and they don't like being told what to do.

South Korea and Singapore are free-market countries, in fact, somewhat freer than the USA even.

[Alben Barkley]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

[Orwell]

This has to be the longest poll thread of 2020

[Democratic Hawk]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

Yes. Not every country has a Jacinda Ardern when they need one

[TheLaRocca]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

[Gass3268]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

Or it could just be Biden supporters who dont want to reveal who they've voted for. Its a weird reservation quite a few people seem to have. I once got sent to the principles office for asking my 5th grade teacher who she voted for. She got so upset and told me its incredibly rude to ask.

The “Don’t Want to Tell” option is only available to folks who have already voted. It also almost exactly the same as what Biden and Greenfield lost. I’m not sure why you add that option if he want a clear response.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This has to be the longest poll thread of 2020

Tara Reade says hi.

[Orwell]

This has to be the longest poll thread of 2020

Tara Reade says hi.

Poll thread Brodie

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Exactly, Iowa isn't determining who wins the Presidency, the overall Senate control or the House, even if all three seats flip.

Let's say Selzer is right and a premature uber Republican driftless area causes Iowa to trend even more Republican. The only other state that could possible impact is WI and for various reason it is less likely to be decisive there. Two massive urban centers (where turnout should be way up) and a massive suburban chain where Trump is likely to lose ground in (WOW).

Its like people don't understand how trends work anymore. Everyone needs to calm down and accept the eventual reality that is a sunbelt Democratic Party and a rust belt GOP.

[Tartarus Sauce]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

An even better equivalent would be the +17 Biden Wisconsin poll from ABC/WaPo, another A+ polling firm. Many of the people losing their minds right now correctly understood that poll was an outlier, but seem to think that every data point leading up to now is rendered moot by a single Ann Selzer poll.

[Andy Hine]

Democrats are weirdos. Why do you all act like girls when one thing doesn't go your way? Grow up. We have had polls with Biden leading in Iowa in the last week. and Republicans, just enjoy your final few months with your dear leader in office. You will be locked out until 2032 at least.

[Storr]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

I get that Iowa is a place where trends don't favor Democrats. But Democrats still flipped two Congressional seats in 2018. "Nothing has changed since 2016" is complete BS. It's not like Democrats have been relying on only hope and Obama era success for 2020.  

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1322711183628132353

[BudgieForce]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

Or it could just be Biden supporters who dont want to reveal who they've voted for. Its a weird reservation quite a few people seem to have. I once got sent to the principles office for asking my 5th grade teacher who she voted for. She got so upset and told me its incredibly rude to ask.

The “Don’t Want to Tell” option is only available to folks who have already voted. It also almost exactly the same as what Biden and Greenfield lost. I’m not sure why you add that option if he want a clear response.

That seems quite short sighted on Selzer's part. If polls are right and the vast majority of early voters support Biden, it stands to reason Biden's topline took the biggest hit from that option.

And honestly, if this poll was Trump +4, there would not be the same level of hysterics right now.

[Alben Barkley]

I’ll give Selzer one thing: If they were trying to scare the pants off liberals on Halloween, they sure as hell succeeded.