IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

One last post before I'm out. And this is coming from someone that accepted like a month ago that Iowa wasn't gonna flip and was gonna be a harder state for Biden to win than FL/GA/NC/OH/TX.  


It is very rich that the same folks who poo-poo any poll that shows Biden doing reasonably well are going apes**t over this one bad state poll and treating it as gospel for the entire national race.

If Biden wins on Tuesday, I wouldn't be shocked if all the bedwetters brush off this entire polling year of self-fulfilling freakouts and ripped hair because ya'll "didn't want to be right anyway". To Hell with that

[SnowLabrador]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

[S019]

Can we not doom about IA, this state was always coming home to Trump, focus on the positives like GA, PA, AZ, TX, MI, and WI instead. OH and IA were always destined to go GOP, it's not worth worrying that Trump will win, just because he wins those, they're both must wins for him and are zooming right. Also if early TX data is any indication, Trump isn't winning there and if he loses TX, it is game over. So, this poll can be right, and it might be, but let's be honest Biden still has >95% odds of winning this election, the race is bordering on Safe D, so please do not doom about IA, it was never happening, to begin with.

[Storr]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

Yes.

"Republicans are preferred by all age cohorts except those 65 and older, and also by independent voters and by people who didn’t vote in 2016, the poll found.'

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/11/01/election-2020-iowa-poll-us-house-races-republican-democrat-voters/6055438002/?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=iowapoll&utm_term=graphic

[It’s so Joever]

One last post before I'm out.


It is very rich that the same folks who poo-poo any poll that shows Biden doing reasonably well are going apes**t over this one bad state poll and treating it as gospel for the entire national race.

If Biden wins on Tuesday, I wouldn't be shocked if all the bedwetters brush off this entire polling year of self-fulfilling freakouts and ripped hair because ya'll "didn't want to be right anyway".

Now you know how we feel about you.

[Horus]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

It's a heavily white midwestern state, of course he is.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Can't wait till Biden wins lmao

[Sbane]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

[RBH]

Have you not seen how Biden is improving with seniors?

Guess we'll see on Tuesday night what happens. Nationwide, Trump was +7 with voters 65+ and +8 with voters 45+ back in 2016. I'm sure if you look around enough polls, the older demo numbers will bounce around.

Also wouldn't surprise me if the shy vote is more of a "not wanting to admit i'm voting for the candidate considered less likely to win" thing. Instead of being a "media shamed me into shyness over Trump's views" thing.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is a really really bad poll for Dems, perhaps the worst one all year. I wasn't really expecting Biden to win Iowa and would have been pleasantly surprised if he did (just did my prediction map with it going R yesterday), but the really bad thing about this is it suggests that Trump's gains (and over the longer term the GOP's gains) among northern/midwestern rural WWC whites were not a one time wonder. This means we should be worried in particular about Wisconsin and Michigan as well, and to a lesser extent Minnesota and Pennsylvania (though in those states I think the Minneapolis/Philadelphia suburbs will be enough of a countertrend regardless). Also despite most polls of ME-02 having Trump up, this suggests he could win that again. Yes, those other state are different from Iowa in various ways, but it is unlikely that WWC voters will swing/trend in a massively different direction in those different states.

This is just a single poll, but it is a very important one because it is the first significant hint that Trump may have a chance in quite a while.

Overall, this greatly raises Trump's chances of winning from essentially non-existent to give Trump a non-trivial chance of pulling out a skin-of-his-teeth win. And that is too high of a chance.

If this does come to pass, over the longer term, this points to the electoral college and the Senate becoming more systemically biased in favor of the GOP.

If nothing else good comes out of this, hopefully one thing this will accomplish is to persuade more Dems of the necessity of abolishing the electoral college, and abolishing the Senate and/or adding lots of new states and/or changing it so that states don't all have exactly 2 Senators.

Maybe it means the WWC voters are doing one last “swan song” for Biden like Dixiecrats did for Carter and suburbanites for Romney.

[EJ24]

Selzer completely botched the Dem primary as well as the 2018 race.

Also, Trump winning every age group other than seniors, complete joke.

This is an outlier.

[EJ24]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

YES. That's how you know it's garbage.

[OBD]

We'll see what happens on Tuesday. No point to bemoan something that's already out of our hands.

[Bootes Void]

im not a doomer but this had me shook. by the way, no other polls are showing any "tightening. If there was we would have seen it by now

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

[Illiniwek]

11 pages? The doomers have taken over...

[philly09]

Four years ago around this time, the Hillary campaign tinged Iowa and told Obama not to visit the state, as it was clear that Trump was running away with it.


I've seen no indication that Biden campaign is triaging the state.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Congrats y'all on making this the most replied to post in the polling board 🥳

[BudgieForce]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Shot fired  

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is a really really bad poll for Dems, perhaps the worst one all year. I wasn't really expecting Biden to win Iowa and would have been pleasantly surprised if he did (just did my prediction map with it going R yesterday), but the really bad thing about this is it suggests that Trump's gains (and over the longer term the GOP's gains) among northern/midwestern rural WWC whites were not a one time wonder. This means we should be worried in particular about Wisconsin and Michigan as well, and to a lesser extent Minnesota and Pennsylvania (though in those states I think the Minneapolis/Philadelphia suburbs will be enough of a countertrend regardless). Also despite most polls of ME-02 having Trump up, this suggests he could win that again. Yes, those other state are different from Iowa in various ways, but it is unlikely that WWC voters will swing/trend in a massively different direction in those different states.

This is just a single poll, but it is a very important one because it is the first significant hint that Trump may have a chance in quite a while.

Overall, this greatly raises Trump's chances of winning from essentially non-existent to give Trump a non-trivial chance of pulling out a skin-of-his-teeth win. And that is too high of a chance.

If this does come to pass, over the longer term, this points to the electoral college and the Senate becoming more systemically biased in favor of the GOP.

If nothing else good comes out of this, hopefully one thing this will accomplish is to persuade more Dems of the necessity of abolishing the electoral college, and abolishing the Senate and/or adding lots of new states and/or changing it so that states don't all have exactly 2 Senators.

Maybe it means the WWC voters are doing one last “swan song” for Biden like Dixiecrats did for Carter and suburbanites for Romney.

Yeah, I think Biden will probably nonetheless (despite this 1 poll) do relatively well among Midwestern WWC voters. And, for example, Biden may do significantly better in WI as compared to IA this time around due to the COVID outbreak in WI. But over the longer term it definitely suggests that those voters are likely to keep trending Republican. The new electoral map in the future is going to be a contest between Dems trying to win with a map based on winning competitive sunbelt states like TX, GA, NC, and FL on the one hand and Republicans trying to base their route to 270 on winning states like WI, MI, MN, ME, and PA while holding on to a few of those sunbelt states.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure/don't remember 2% (-1 from Not sure at 3%)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

[Storr]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Shot fired  

Declaration of War delivered.

[RBH]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

Younger people are also a bit difficult to contact for polls, or if you're phonebanking, or canvassing. Especially how many would have the 'wrong' phone number on record or a household number or something not a cell phone. If you can get them to pick up.

So, out of 814 people polled, how many were in the "youth vote" category, 100-150? So, it's not going to be representative.

Polls usually underestimate Dems with young people and various minority groups, and probably overestimate them with white people and old white people

[NOVA Green]

Key question is gonna be not just Statewide numbers, but rather how places like Sioux City vote:

Everybody just gotta chill out over one poll and look at what has been going on even in the most Republican City in Iowa...

Here are a few posts I made about Sioux City a few Months back...

It is amazing that Atlas, with all of our collective knowledge, as well as "Tribal Knowledge" continues to ignore the terrain of the Cities...

Even smaller Cities in smaller States are frequently more representative of "swings" than State Level Polls or National polls...

Let's take a peak at the largest Trump City in Iowa in 2016:

Iowa: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sioux City....   Tossup/ Tilt Trump[/size]

 US PRES GE Results from 2000 > 2016:



1.) NOVA GREEN pet peeve is when Absentee Votes are not consolidated into precincts at a County level....

2.) It appears that Iowa helped resolve this problem in '08 in order to create a greater level of granularity.... Iowa FF's live on, from the ancestors who fought and died in the Battlefields of the Civil War from Northern States, not to mention my German-American Ancestors who fled Germany after the failed revolution of '48 to come to the New World, and next thing you know as "Shoe Makers" are shoving their inventory up the "Dutch Ovens" as Johnny Reb marches North starting as a Provision Raid and feint into Pennsylvania... shorty before the Battle of Gettsyburg (Basically an Hour Drive from the road from Grandparents on my Mother's side)...

3.) Rant aside, it appears that Sioux City voted for Gore in 2000...

Kerry/Bush '04: Starts to become sketch because of distribution of votes, but still '04 "City Votes", even if we assign Absentee Votes heavily towards the City vs other precincts, looks pretty clear that Bush Jr won Sioux City by decent numbers.

4.) O'Bama was clearly popular out here in both '08 / '12.... Could be because he was a Midwest Populist Democrat with deep roots in both Illinois and Kansas...

So rolling at 52%- 53% DEM in '08 / '12 might have been an outlier...

5.) 2016 GE PRES number clearly indicated not only massive Obama > Trump swings, but additionally likely the highest performance of a Republican Presidential Candidate in Sioux City since Bush Jr in '04...

Haven't really spent time looking at the '18 Iowa GE Results, but quite frankly Sioux City will most likely be the "bell-weather City" when it comes to if Biden or Trump wins Iowa...

Thoughts all y'all?

Iowa: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sioux City....   Tossup/ Tilt Trump

So--- since I had today off of work, I thought I would go through and look at some other recent election results from the City...

Let's start with election results in Sioux City for CD-04 from 2012 to 2018:



Now let's look at a few other recent miscellaneous elections in Sioux City:



So--- a few brief observations:

1.) The 2018 CD-04 numbers theoretically could represent bad news for Trump in the GE in Iowa and the City of Sioux City.

A +16% DEM vote against Steve King, represented a +21% DEM swing from the CD-04 results in 2016.

2.) However, it should be noted that turnout was significantly lower in 2018, so it is difficult to ascertain how much of these votes were simply a significantly higher DEM base turnout versus PUB base turnout with Steve King becoming increasingly toxic even among many Republican leaning voters.

3.) The 2016 CD-04 results tell another interesting story:

Steve King's 2016 numbers, both in terms of raw vote and Republican % of the vote effectively mirrored Trump's numbers.

This strongly suggests that 2016 3rd Party PRES voters voted overwhelmingly Democratic for the CD-04 candidate.

4.) It appears that Trump's ceiling in Sioux City is somewhere around the 52% range, and also that Biden should be a massive net beneficiary of 2016 3rd Party PRES voters and that Biden is likely looking at a 46-47% floor in 2020.

5.) The 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Election reinforces the point, and indicates that Sioux City tends to vote slightly to the Right of Iowa as a whole, effectively meaning that it might well be considered a bit of bellwether place when looking at how Iowa as a whole will vote in 2020 for US-PRES and US-SEN.

6.) The US-SEN results from '16 accentuate this point with Sioux City actually voting slightly to the Left of Iowa, in what was effectively a Grassley landslide...

The US-SEN results from '14 show Ernst slightly over-performing Statewide numbers...

7.) Recent state polling appears to indicate that Iowa is currently pretty much close to toss-up territory for both the Presidential and US-Senate race in 2020...

8.) Despite the '08 & '12 Obama PRES performance numbers, as well as CD-04 numbers from '12 and '18, I would still consider Trump to be a slight favorite here.

Running the additional numbers reinforces my initial assessment that Sioux City is a Tossup / Tilt Trump City.

Additionally, BOLD PREDICTION: If Biden wins Sioux City he will have won Iowa and most likely we will have a Democratic Senator representing the State once the new session of the Senate is sworn in...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7599895#msg7599895