IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Pericles]

Yikes, scary poll.

[Pericles]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

Democrats being panicked is brilliant for the Biden campaign. Let everyone think it's a pure tossup election.

[Pericles]

This poll is a bad indicator for Biden, but there are so many good indicators for Biden that he's very likely to win, and win comfortably, anyway. I was hoping that this would disprove my suspicions that IA and OH polls are underestimating Trump by a few points and Biden will fall short there, but unfortunately a gold-standard poll with evidence for that hasn't emerged. However, IA isn't a tipping-point state, Biden would be well ahead in the EC and PV if he is winning here (and it's possible that IA trends to the right so that Biden wins an EC and PV landslide but still loses it).

[Pericles]

Scary poll. I was worried Biden might in trouble in Wisconsin and maybe Michigan. Looks like Biden has held the blue wall in spite of Trump's big win here.

He kind of was, he only won it by 0.6%.