2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Flabuckeye]

Registered voters Florida:

2016:  12,863,773
2020: 14,441,869

RV gain of 1,578,096

based on the trajectory of the chart below, wouldn't be out of bounds to say both Rs and Ds hit 81% and NPAs achieve 65%

This would result in 10.9M votes or 1.9M on Election Day

[redjohn]

Judge Hanen rules Plaintiffs Do not have standing in Texas. Votes will stand!

Thank god.

[Non Swing Voter]

Registered voters Florida:

2016:  12,863,773
2020: 14,441,869

RV gain of 1,578,096

based on the trajectory of the chart below, wouldn't be out of bounds to say both Rs and Ds hit 81% and NPAs achieve 65%

This would result in 10.9M votes or 1.9M on Election Day

Sounds right to me.  If the internal numbers are true, then that means Republicans would need to net like 200k votes on Election Day.  So R's would need 1.05m to D's 850k.  So they need at least a 10% margin.

[Bootes Void]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1323349300743753733

[Flabuckeye]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

[Non Swing Voter]

BTW - if the internals are right then Susan Collins is toast in Maine.

[cp]

Judge Hanen rules Plaintiffs Do not have standing in Texas. Votes will stand!

Thank god.

To confirm:

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1323360824753270785

[Non Swing Voter]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

Nice for Republicans to vote early so Dems have short wait times on Election Day there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

[Flabuckeye]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

Hard core GOP, perhaps a few youngins NPA...but then they would be persuadeable

[Non Swing Voter]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

Hard core GOP, perhaps a few youngins NPA...but then they would be persuadeable

So NPA's are likely to break toward Biden?

[emailking]

Judge Hanen rules Plaintiffs Do not have standing in Texas. Votes will stand!

Makes sense. I don't see how individual voters can claim to be injured because somebody else voted. A candidate or party might have standing.

[Flabuckeye]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

Hard core GOP, perhaps a few youngins NPA...but then they would be persuadeable

So NPA's are likely to break toward Biden?

Polls suggest so....NYT/Siena suggests 47%-37%, but we shall see.   I'm just rooting for as many as possible to show up.   If turnout is high among NPAs, that means young folk turnout is high....good for Biden

[Alben Barkley]

Nate Silver explains why even with R +3 turnout in Florida, Biden would still win:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323366696208531460?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/CHueyBurns/status/1323284335798243330

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/CHueyBurns/status/1323284335798243330

This is totally unheard of anywhere else in the world.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Well maybe, on the other hand, if something was wrong with my mail ballot paperwork in Germany the ballot would just be tossed out without notification. So being able to fix such issues is actually something several US states are better at.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ZachGorchow/status/1323334086308618240

[swf541]

That's a pretty major jump for Detroit

[Dr. Arch]

That's a pretty major jump for Detroit

We saw the opposite of this happen last minute in 2016, when Clinton's campaign suddenly noticed that Democrats weren't sending in their ballots as much as her campaign thought they would.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/ZachGorchow/status/1323334086308618240

From what I've read on the USPS situation, it appears like active measures have been taken to make sure all ballots are processed in time in Michigan. Hopefully we're seeing the results of that.

[philly09]

Here's the full Jen O'Malley Dillon video from today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j03BNEV_cuI

[EJ24]

Here's the full Jen O'Malley Dillon video from today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j03BNEV_cuI

She sounds pretty confident in WI, NC, and AZ.

That alone + Hillary's 2016 states gets Biden to 268.

[philly09]

Looking good for Biden in AZ, especially considering the GOP crossover votes.

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323386585065361411

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713