2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Horus]

It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

Older black voters are not particularly trustworthy of early voting, even less so of mail in voting (memories of disenfranchisement are too recent I would guess) and conservatives are being told to wait, but even before Trump probably just wanted to vote in the more traditional way.

[compucomp]

It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

It does to me, conservative voters were told by their Supreme Leader to not trust VBM, black voters are quite averse to being disenfranchised and regard VBM as higher risk, particularly with the USPS shenanigans, thus choose to vote on ED.

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,596,194 (66.1%)
Reps 555,805 (23.0%)
Others 262,352 (10.9%)
= 2,414,351

Dems have a +1.04M lead on Reps.

Return rates:
Dems 82.0%
Reps 70.6%
Others 72%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

Older black voters are not particularly trustworthy of early voting, even less so of mail in voting (memories of disenfranchisement are too recent I would guess) and conservatives are being told to wait, but even before Trump probably just wanted to vote in the more traditional way.

I was originally planning on flying back to Texas to vote in-person.  Had nothing to do with distrusting VBM.  It's just that, to me, Election Day is something of an event and I've always enjoyed voting on the day-of.  

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery County, PA is expected to have some mail ballot results by 8:30pm tomorrow night (even before Election Day votes). Most of the SEPA counties are starting to count at 7am tomorrow so it looks like if they do the same way, mail ballot results should start showing up in many places tomorrow night in PA.

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1323282901950173185

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

Trump: Rambles about mail ballots and fraud
Black voter: Oh, he's trying to throw out black people's ballots, I'm not trusting early voting
Conservative: I'm not voting early because Sorros Deep State Antifa Chinese are rigging the mail

[soundchaser]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,596,194 (66.1%)
Reps 555,805 (23.0%)
Others 262,352 (10.9%)
= 2,414,351

Dems have a +1.04M lead on Reps.

Return rates:
Dems 82.0%
Reps 70.6%
Others 72%

I really don't see how you can argue Trump's going to win PA at this point. A million ballot lead just seems very tough to overcome no matter how much election day turnout is.

[Ferguson97]

When are we getting that federal court ruling for Texas?

[Buzz]

I’m voting in person on Election Day because I want the full day to the the ultimate experience.

[Horus]

Good to see Montco getting out ahead of this, I would guess Chester, Bucks and Delaware will too. Philadelphia city and to a lesser extent Allegheny are where I worry about delays.

[LimoLiberal]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Montgomery County, PA is expected to have some mail ballot results by 8:30pm tomorrow night (even before Election Day votes). Most of the SEPA counties are starting to count at 7am tomorrow so it looks like if they do the same way, mail ballot results should start showing up in many places tomorrow night in PA.

SNIP!

I'd like to imagine they have ONE guy who cracks his knuckles, sits down, and starts counting at 7am.  

"Alright.  One for Biden.  One for Trump.  One for Biden..."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

Nothing credible.  If you see such reports before the polls close, I would take them with a LARGE grain of salt.

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,596,194 (66.1%)
Reps 555,805 (23.0%)
Others 262,352 (10.9%)
= 2,414,351

Dems have a +1.04M lead on Reps.

Return rates:
Dems 82.0%
Reps 70.6%
Others 72%

I really don't see how you can argue Trump's going to win PA at this point. A million ballot lead just seems very tough to overcome no matter how much election day turnout is.

Not to mention, I would be alarmed if I was the GOP that it's the day before and their return rate is only 70%.

[LimoLiberal]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

Nothing credible.  If you see such reports before the polls close, I would take them with a LARGE grain of salt.

I do actually recall some Kentucky counties in 2019 releasing their early votes before 6 PM.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

Nothing credible.  If you see such reports before the polls close, I would take them with a LARGE grain of salt.

On 2017 VA-GOV election day, I remember seeing a "pundit" (and I use that term SUPER loosely) reporting that "exit polling doesn't look good for Northam."

This was at 11:30am.  But, of course, the post already had a hundred likes and retweets.  

[wbrocks67]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

Nothing credible.  If you see such reports before the polls close, I would take them with a LARGE grain of salt.

On 2017 VA-GOV election day, I remember seeing a "pundit" (and I use that term SUPER loosely) reporting that "exit polling doesn't look good for Northam."

This was at 11:30am.  But, of course, the post already had a hundred likes and retweets.  

Was it that Ben Tribbett guy who always says things are good for Dems in the morning but then bad in the midday but then great in the afternoon lol

[wbrocks67]

New Mexico at nearly 100% of 2016 turnout and Dems still lead +14 among just D/R totals.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NM.html

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

New Mexico at nearly 100% of 2016 turnout and Dems still lead +14 among just D/R totals.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NM.html

Gotta be feeling good about that if you're Xochitl Torres Small

[Silent Hunter]

I think it's quite probable that on the day voting ends up a broad wash and Biden wins via early voting.

[wbrocks67]

I think it's quite probable that on the day voting ends up a broad wash and Biden wins via early voting.

This is quite possible. Especially considering many minority voters are still waiting to participate until election day. Which leads me to believe it will not be this Trump blowout that people are expecting.

[charcuterie]

I think it's quite probable that on the day voting ends up a broad wash and Biden wins via early voting.

So that scenario would require unexpectedly low election-day turnout, especially on the GOP side?

[Silent Hunter]

No, high turnout on both sides.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Election Day vote is probably going to skew a lot younger than average too...

[Non Swing Voter]

I’m voting in person on Election Day because I want the full day to the the ultimate experience.

I was going to do this.  Really like voting on Election Day.  Feels more patriotic.  But I walked right by a voting line and decided to just vote early.