2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[MATTROSE94]

In the Texas curbside voting case:

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1323348683203764225

how do you think it goes?

Andrew Hanen easily rules in favor of the Republicans, as he is a pretty vile character and a judge who should have been impeached 10 years ago.

I was wrong in my prediction lol.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713

Remind me, philly: what was being said about AA turnout?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713

Remind me, philly: what was being said about AA turnout?

That it was abysmal.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713

Take ContentedIndie with a grain of salt, he also says TN-SEN is Lean R

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323374898610319362

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713

Take ContentedIndie with a grain of salt, he also says TN-SEN is Lean R

Except he's quoting the Georgia SOS, which corroborated the Targetsmart numbers he was initially skeptical of.

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323376851952242688

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323374898610319362

Who is this guy and how does he have access to private polls?

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323374898610319362

Who is this guy and how does he have access to private polls?

He’s a nobody with a Twitter platform. Ignore.

[Asta]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

[philly09]

Giving the game away.

https://twitter.com/Jennifer_Hiller/status/1323376828522860545

[tallguy23]

Giving the game away.

https://twitter.com/Jennifer_Hiller/status/1323376828522860545

The judge ruled that the votes count. They aren't being thrown out.

[philly09]

Giving the game away.

https://twitter.com/Jennifer_Hiller/status/1323376828522860545

The judge ruled that the votes count. They aren't being thrown out.

I know, but I'm showing how he said the quiet part out loud.

[DaleCooper]

Giving the game away.

https://twitter.com/Jennifer_Hiller/status/1323376828522860545

The judge ruled that the votes count. They aren't being thrown out.

I know, but I'm showing how he said the quiet part out loud.

The more desperate and scared they get, the more brazen their crimes will be.

[Non Swing Voter]

Giving the game away.

https://twitter.com/Jennifer_Hiller/status/1323376828522860545

The judge ruled that the votes count. They aren't being thrown out.

I know, but I'm showing how he said the quiet part out loud.

someone should send that to the TX bar for review.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323390373264265216

[SenatorCouzens]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Schale predicted the major statewide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018 would all go to the Democrats. Either he is FINALLY being analytical and cautious, or he's seeing bad numbers.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323390373264265216

It would be cool if my home county ends up saving Biden's bacon in Florida.

[LimoLiberal]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Schale predicted the major statewide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018 would all go to the Democrats. Either he is FINALLY being analytical and cautious, or he's seeing bad numbers.

To be fair, his predictions were only off by ~1 point.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1323381649514647553

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Right, he's basically just stating the obvious: Florida will almost certainly be close and it comes down to turnout. 

[BudgieForce]

I think people are really underestimating moderate Republicans and NPAs in Florida. I'm smack dab in suburban Florida in a swing state house district and there are alot of Biden signs. Also a few Biden flags.

[DaleCooper]

I think people are really underestimating moderate Republicans and NPAs in Florida. I'm smack dab in suburban Florida in a swing house district and there are alot of Biden signs. Also a few Biden flags.

Yes, I know this is very anecdotal, but my precinct was also very traditionally Republican and I've been seeing tons of signs for Biden and local Democrats. Again, I know it's anecdotal, but you can practically feel the suburban disdain for Republicans in the air this year.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713

Take ContentedIndie with a grain of salt, he also says TN-SEN is Lean R

Except he's quoting the Georgia SOS, which corroborated the Targetsmart numbers he was initially skeptical of.

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323376851952242688

Sorry, I haven't been following this thread, but how do they know the race and age of those who've voted so far?  Is that information actually included in voter registrations?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323378544458739713

Take ContentedIndie with a grain of salt, he also says TN-SEN is Lean R

Except he's quoting the Georgia SOS, which corroborated the Targetsmart numbers he was initially skeptical of.

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323376851952242688

Sorry, I haven't been following this thread, but how do they know the race and age of those who've voted so far?  Is that information actually included in voter registrations?

It used to be required by VRA, but no longer is, and the state is no longer collecting it for new registrations (at least those done automatically when getting a driver's license).

[SenatorCouzens]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Schale predicted the major statewide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018 would all go to the Democrats. Either he is FINALLY being analytical and cautious, or he's seeing bad numbers.

To be fair, his predictions were only off by ~1 point.

Haha... I assume you're just sort of teasing but in case not... It's Florida, any prediction is going to be close! Literally anyone, and even a tossed coin, only would've been off by ~1 those years.