2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2  (Read 86179 times)
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2325 on: November 02, 2020, 02:07:23 PM »
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EJ24
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« Reply #2326 on: November 02, 2020, 02:08:23 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 02:07:23 PM


Dem vote by mail lead increasing by the hour now.
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emailking
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« Reply #2327 on: November 02, 2020, 02:08:59 PM »
It says support levels which I figured meant it's like a poll. If it's just how many Dems & Reps have early voted then isn't it publicly available data?
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2328 on: November 02, 2020, 02:09:10 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on November 02, 2020, 02:08:23 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 02:07:23 PM


Dem vote by mail lead increasing by the hour now.
very very slowly. no idea if you get updates tomorrow on this
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2329 on: November 02, 2020, 02:09:29 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2020, 01:48:18 PM
Looks like TX is gone. FL will be a heavy lift too.


Looks like NC is gone for Trump by the same standard. 
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2330 on: November 02, 2020, 02:15:39 PM »

The standard is that all data no matter what it says indicates that Trump is winning. So actually by the same standard NC is gone for Biden.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2331 on: November 02, 2020, 02:15:47 PM »
The Biden campaign is expecting over 7 million votes in Pennsylvania?  
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2332 on: November 02, 2020, 02:22:02 PM »

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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2333 on: November 02, 2020, 02:22:25 PM »
Is it true that those O'Malley-Dillon numbers are only assessing the percentage of voters by party affiliation, and thus leaving out NPAs, or are they estimates of the actual vote?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2334 on: November 02, 2020, 02:25:07 PM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 02, 2020, 02:22:25 PM
Is it true that those O'Malley-Dillon numbers are only assessing the percentage of voters by party affiliation, and thus leaving out NPAs, or are they estimates of the actual vote?

Someone can go back and watch the live stream, but there is no breakdown in the slides we have.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2335 on: November 02, 2020, 02:25:23 PM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 02, 2020, 02:22:25 PM
Is it true that those O'Malley-Dillon numbers are only assessing the percentage of voters by party affiliation, and thus leaving out NPAs, or are they estimates of the actual vote?

It looks like it's estimates of the actual vote to me.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2336 on: November 02, 2020, 02:30:09 PM »
I don't think there's 20% of the Florida vote remaining. 

We are at over 9 million votes returned, which is over 94% of the 2016 vote.  Yes turnout will be higher but millions of votes higher?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
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« Reply #2337 on: November 02, 2020, 02:37:34 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
I don't think there's 20% of the Florida vote remaining. 

We are at over 9 million votes returned, which is over 94% of the 2016 vote.  Yes turnout will be higher but millions of votes higher?

80% turnout plus 4 years of population growth=11.25 million votes.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2338 on: November 02, 2020, 02:40:03 PM »
Quote from: Blairite on November 02, 2020, 02:37:34 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
I don't think there's 20% of the Florida vote remaining. 

We are at over 9 million votes returned, which is over 94% of the 2016 vote.  Yes turnout will be higher but millions of votes higher?

80% turnout plus 4 years of population growth=11.25 million votes.

Seems doubtful it gets quite that high.  Probably more like 10.5-11 million.  Plus we are over 9 million.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2339 on: November 02, 2020, 02:40:47 PM »



Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
I don't think there's 20% of the Florida vote remaining. 

We are at over 9 million votes returned, which is over 94% of the 2016 vote.  Yes turnout will be higher but millions of votes higher?
There is almost 100% of the 2016 vote in Florida as of now not including ED vote. I expect turnout to be 125 to 130% of 2016 vote, when you account for more population growth and registrations.There will also be alot of florida voters left as it is only about 67% Rv for both parties and at this point, it wouldn't surprise if we see if the RV% goes up to 80-85% for both parties(maybe higher but not sure for now). Im not sure about how many millions higher, but I have heard anywhere from 11 to 12 million out of 14 million registered Florida voters that will cast their vote.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2340 on: November 02, 2020, 02:45:03 PM »
In the Texas curbside voting case:
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2341 on: November 02, 2020, 02:49:09 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2020, 02:45:03 PM
In the Texas curbside voting case:


how do you think it goes?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #2342 on: November 02, 2020, 02:53:37 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 02:49:09 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2020, 02:45:03 PM
In the Texas curbside voting case:


how do you think it goes?
Andrew Hanen easily rules in favor of the Republicans, as he is a pretty vile character and a judge who should have been impeached 10 years ago.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2343 on: November 02, 2020, 02:53:52 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 02:49:09 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2020, 02:45:03 PM
In the Texas curbside voting case:


how do you think it goes?

He'll allow the votes already cast.  He might shut down curbside voting for tomorrow, though.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2344 on: November 02, 2020, 03:12:00 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2020, 02:53:52 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 02:49:09 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2020, 02:45:03 PM
In the Texas curbside voting case:


how do you think it goes?

He'll allow the votes already cast.  He might shut down curbside voting for tomorrow, though.

This is my guess
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2345 on: November 02, 2020, 03:13:10 PM »
Early votes are now at 97M. We might close the day at over 100M, even before the final updates tomorrow and the VBM votes that will come in throughout the week.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2346 on: November 02, 2020, 03:16:11 PM »
O'Malley Dillon is never going to put out real #s and lead to complacency.

Also take PA. Dems 67-33? The current early vote is 66-23-11. That would mean all of the Indies - and I mean *ALL* of them are voting for Trump.
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Roblox
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« Reply #2347 on: November 02, 2020, 03:20:21 PM »
Yeah I seriously doubt the Biden campaign would just casually release their actual internal analytics like that.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2348 on: November 02, 2020, 03:22:08 PM »
Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?
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ExSky
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« Reply #2349 on: November 02, 2020, 03:27:13 PM »
Judge Hanen rules Plaintiffs Do not have standing in Texas. Votes will stand!
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