2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

You just never know with Florida

I remember during the 2012 election Mitt Romney was leading in most FL polls and on election night The Obama campaign said that they expected Romney to win Florida

But as the numbers came in on election night Obama pulled off a shocking upset and won a state that even his own campaign said he was going to lose lol

It just goes to show that we dont truly know what FL is going to do until all the votes are counted. So yes the early vote looks ok for Trump so far but things also looked even Better for Mitt Romney in 2012 and look at how that worked out him in the end......

Obama's hurricane Sandy response in NJ probably helped him in FL as well because they are so used to hurricanes and he looked like a good leader working with Christie.

[xavier110]

You just never know with Florida

I remember during the 2012 election Mitt Romney was leading in most FL polls and on election night The Obama campaign said that they expected Romney to win Florida

But as the numbers came in on election night Obama pulled off a shocking upset and won a state that even his own campaign said he was going to lose lol

It just goes to show that we dont truly know what FL is going to do until all the votes are counted. So yes the early vote looks ok for Trump so far but things also looked even Better for Mitt Romney in 2012 and look at how that worked out for him in the end......

Well I’ll put on my tinfoil hat and add that they didn’t have to steal votes last minute for Romney in FL because the election was already determined.

Almost every Florida election is suspect IMO, lol.

[compucomp]

You just never know with Florida

I remember during the 2012 election Mitt Romney was leading in most FL polls and on election night The Obama campaign said that they expected Romney to win Florida

But as the numbers came in on election night Obama pulled off a shocking upset and won a state that even his own campaign said he was going to lose lol

It just goes to show that we dont truly know what FL is going to do until all the votes are counted. So yes the early vote looks ok for Trump so far but things also looked even Better for Mitt Romney in 2012 and look at how that worked out for him in the end......

Well I’ll put on my tinfoil hat and add that they didn’t have to steal votes last minute for Romney in FL because the election was already determined.

Almost every Florida election is suspect IMO, lol.

To add to the tinfoil hat theme, if the Republicans were to try to pull off the rumored "state legislature coup" to appoint Republican electors even if Biden won more votes, Florida is where it might be possible. Republicans have a trifecta there. The legislature could pass a law saying the general election was full of fraud and thus invalid, declare Trump the winner, and DeSantis would sign the law.

This wouldn't work nearly as well in PA, WI, MI, and NC since the governors are Dems, who would never sign any such law, and would appoint D electors to contest the R electors.

[psychprofessor]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

[exopolitician]

Obama is currently in Miami holding a rally for Joe. He's on MSNBC, so they are working on getting that turnout it seems.

[Hindsight was 2020]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

At this point you just gotta assume that NPA is breaking really heavy for Biden for the consistent polling about FL lining up with the numbers

[Non Swing Voter]

Notice they didn't send Obama to North Carolina today, where the black vote is even more determinative.  I think that's because the black vote is turning out big there already. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Did we already discuss the PA Supreme Court ruling re: signature verification? I couldn't find it while browsing back through previous pages. 

[Tekken_Guy]

Notice they didn't send Obama to North Carolina today, where the black vote is even more determinative.  I think that's because the black vote is turning out big there already. 

True, but it probably won't hurt to send him there as well.

[Tintrlvr]

Did we already discuss the PA Supreme Court ruling re: signature verification? I couldn't find it while browsing back through previous pages.  

I didn't see any discussion, either, but this one is a big deal. Also hard to see how the US Supreme Court could justify hearing an appeal to this from the PA Supreme Court when the laws on the topic vary widely from state to state with no federal standard, so that should settle the issue.

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia numbers

Fulton = 303k (2016 total vote = 439k)
DeKalb = 224k (2016 total vote = 318k)
Cobb = 215k (2016 total vote = 334k)
Gwinnett = 207k (2016 total vote = 331k)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Did we already discuss the PA Supreme Court ruling re: signature verification? I couldn't find it while browsing back through previous pages.  

I didn't see any discussion, either, but this one is a big deal. Also hard to see how the US Supreme Court could justify hearing an appeal to this from the PA Supreme Court when the laws on the topic vary widely from state to state with no federal standard, so that should settle the issue.

Well in case it somehow got missed:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1319695864525475840

[randomusername]

Any idea of what's going on in TN? 61% of their 2016 turnout but most of it is in early voting (which I assume is skewing for the Republicans, however, TN doesn't list it's partisan divide in the page. I'm not expecting TN to flip, even if it has a reputation of being one of the most volatile states of the solid South, historically speaking.

[DaleCooper]

Did we already discuss the PA Supreme Court ruling re: signature verification? I couldn't find it while browsing back through previous pages.  

I didn't see any discussion, either, but this one is a big deal. Also hard to see how the US Supreme Court could justify hearing an appeal to this from the PA Supreme Court when the laws on the topic vary widely from state to state with no federal standard, so that should settle the issue.

From my understanding, the law they want to use as a justification for throwing out ballots based on signatures literally has no provisions related to signature requirements. So there really isn't even a case to appeal.

[Donerail]

Obama's hurricane Sandy response in NJ probably helped him in FL as well because they are so used to hurricanes and he looked like a good leader working with Christie.

Honestly we mostly just thought it was kinda funny that everyone up there was freaking out over a Cat 1.

[Tekken_Guy]

Obama's hurricane Sandy response in NJ probably helped him in FL as well because they are so used to hurricanes and he looked like a good leader working with Christie.

Honestly we mostly just thought it was kinda funny that everyone up there was freaking out over a Cat 1.

Speaking as a Jerseyite, it was not just "a Cat 1". Sandy was a massive hurricane/nor'easter hybrid.

[Bootes Void]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

[TopShelfGoal]

Obama ripping Trump on Puerto Rico in his Florida rally. Talking about how he didn't help Puerto Rico when there was a hurricane and that he considered selling Puerto Rico. Seems like a play at charging the Puerto Rican turnout.

[Tintrlvr]

Obama ripping Trump on Puerto Rico in his Florida rally. Talking about how he didn't help Puerto Rico when there was a hurricane and that he considered selling Puerto Rico. Seems like a play at charging the Puerto Rican turnout.

This should be a focus in the closing. NPA turnout is key for the Democrats in the late stages in Florida.

[Non Swing Voter]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

[psychprofessor]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Sure, but he only won the state by 100k. Don't look at raw numbers right now - look at turnout % for D's and R's. In 2016, Trump won by a little over a point while R's won turnout by 7%. If D's can keep close with turnout % they will be very good in Florida.

[Tekken_Guy]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

VBM?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

I wouldn't read into SPP at all considering their numbers appear to be totally disconnected from the actual early vote we're seeing. They also overestimated Nelson in 2018.