2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Brittain33]

We know Texas has to have high turnout for their to be a chance that Biden wins, but it's not clear to me that the sleeping giant in Texas is necessarily strongly Dem enough to mean that we should feel good about a Dem win. It could well be that tens of thousands of people in Denton and Collin County turning out for the first time are people who are conservative enough to be in sync with the GOP but not frequent voters because Texas wasn't contested. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't look at huge numbers in historically Republican counties, even if they're changing, as reliably good news.

[Tekken_Guy]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

I wouldn't read into SPP at all considering their numbers appear to be totally disconnected from the actual early vote we're seeing. They also overestimated Nelson in 2018.

Early vote is not the be-all end-all. Republicans could be cannibalizing their Election Day vote. There may be a lot of "Biden Republicans", mostly seniors and suburbanites. The NPA vote should be something to watch.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

This ends at 5 right?

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

This ends at 5 right?

I’m not 100% sure what time.

[GP270watch]

 Florida in person voting goes from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and longer if people are in line, in most counties.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Day one of early voting here in (Western) New York.

Went at 2PM, and saw a massive line of at least 100 people wrapping the entire perimeter of a Senior Center parking lot.

1 - Looks like I'll be dropping off my ballot on election night.

2 - If this is happening in highly Democratic WNY, imagine swing states. This is NOT good for the Trump campaign.

[GP270watch]

Day one of early voting here in (Western) New York.

Went at 2PM, and saw a massive line of at least 100 people wrapping the entire perimeter of a Senior Center parking lot.

1 - Looks like I'll be dropping off my ballot on election night.

2 - If this is happening in highly Democratic WNY, imagine swing states. This is NOT good for the Trump campaign.

 It's been unmistakeable that after 4 years people who are strong Democrats can not wait to vote out Donald Trump. We've seen that everywhere.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Day one of early voting here in (Western) New York.

Went at 2PM, and saw a massive line of at least 100 people wrapping the entire perimeter of a Senior Center parking lot.

1 - Looks like I'll be dropping off my ballot on election night.

2 - If this is happening in highly Democratic WNY, imagine swing states. This is NOT good for the Trump campaign.

 It's been unmistakeable that after 4 years people who are strong Democrats can not wait to vote out Donald Trump. We've seen that everywhere.

Albeit I'm 20, I've never seen a line (for anything) that long in my life. Even compared to videos I've seen in swing states, it was insane.

The momentum and energy of the Dems is undeniable.

[walleye26]

According to the Harris County clerk, at 3pm 31,000 more voters have voted today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From https://twitter.com/alexoimas/status/1320079972116107264:

Just cast my early vote in the outskirts of Philadelphia County, PA. It was...kind of jarring.

If you have option of *early voting*, do it!! If my experience was at all representative, Nov 3rd may be insane.

I arrived just as polling place opened. Short line. Thought I'd be in and out in 20 minutes tops. Even w/ this short line, it took 2+ hours.

About 10 minutes into me waiting in line, the first Semi started up the residential road adjacent to voting line. It started honking.

hen the next Semi followed, then the 3rd. A motorcade of Semis, jeeps, and a few sedans drove down the road. All honking. All flying Trump 2020 flags. With people yelling out the window.

This motorcade snaked around the polling place the entire time I was there (2 hrs)

Let me just say that a line of Semis honking at the same time is *LOUD*. Listening to this for hours is jarring.

Election officials, who were extremely professional, could not give instructions to people in line because no one could hear them. People covered their ears.

At some point the people in line started yelling at the trucks. Some of which stopped, and started yelling back. There were enough police/officials to keep things from escalating.

But all this being said: There is no telling what Nov 3 is going to be like. Vote early!

[Rep Jessica]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
16m
As of 4PM EST

In Florida there is a total of 5,595,759

There is currently
2,400,868 D ballots 42.91% (+155,836)
2,033,242 R ballots 36.34% (+177,472)
1,093,268 NPA ballots 19.54% (+97,463)
68,381 O ballots 1.22% (+5,909)

D+367,626 returns (-21,636)

% of RV
D 45.27%
R 39.34%

[NYSforKennedy2024]

From https://twitter.com/alexoimas/status/1320079972116107264:

Just cast my early vote in the outskirts of Philadelphia County, PA. It was...kind of jarring.


If you have option of *early voting*, do it!! If my experience was at all representative, Nov 3rd may be insane.

I arrived just as polling place opened. Short line. Thought I'd be in and out in 20 minutes tops. Even w/ this short line, it took 2+ hours.

About 10 minutes into me waiting in line, the first Semi started up the residential road adjacent to voting line. It started honking.

hen the next Semi followed, then the 3rd. A motorcade of Semis, jeeps, and a few sedans drove down the road. All honking. All flying Trump 2020 flags. With people yelling out the window.

This motorcade snaked around the polling place the entire time I was there (2 hrs)

Let me just say that a line of Semis honking at the same time is *LOUD*. Listening to this for hours is jarring.

Election officials, who were extremely professional, could not give instructions to people in line because no one could hear them. People covered their ears.

At some point the people in line started yelling at the trucks. Some of which stopped, and started yelling back. There were enough police/officials to keep things from escalating.

But all this being said: There is no telling what Nov 3 is going to be like. Vote early!

Hello Voter Intimidation Department?

[Holmes]

From https://twitter.com/alexoimas/status/1320079972116107264:

Just cast my early vote in the outskirts of Philadelphia County, PA. It was...kind of jarring.

If you have option of *early voting*, do it!! If my experience was at all representative, Nov 3rd may be insane.

I arrived just as polling place opened. Short line. Thought I'd be in and out in 20 minutes tops. Even w/ this short line, it took 2+ hours.

About 10 minutes into me waiting in line, the first Semi started up the residential road adjacent to voting line. It started honking.

hen the next Semi followed, then the 3rd. A motorcade of Semis, jeeps, and a few sedans drove down the road. All honking. All flying Trump 2020 flags. With people yelling out the window.

This motorcade snaked around the polling place the entire time I was there (2 hrs)

Let me just say that a line of Semis honking at the same time is *LOUD*. Listening to this for hours is jarring.

Election officials, who were extremely professional, could not give instructions to people in line because no one could hear them. People covered their ears.

At some point the people in line started yelling at the trucks. Some of which stopped, and started yelling back. There were enough police/officials to keep things from escalating.

But all this being said: There is no telling what Nov 3 is going to be like. Vote early!

Surprised those cops didn’t charge them with public disturbance, but then again I’m sure they’re on the same side, so.

[bilaps]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

yeah, it should be called, a stupid way to look at Florida

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

From https://twitter.com/alexoimas/status/1320079972116107264:

Just cast my early vote in the outskirts of Philadelphia County, PA. It was...kind of jarring.

If you have option of *early voting*, do it!! If my experience was at all representative, Nov 3rd may be insane.

I arrived just as polling place opened. Short line. Thought I'd be in and out in 20 minutes tops. Even w/ this short line, it took 2+ hours.

About 10 minutes into me waiting in line, the first Semi started up the residential road adjacent to voting line. It started honking.

hen the next Semi followed, then the 3rd. A motorcade of Semis, jeeps, and a few sedans drove down the road. All honking. All flying Trump 2020 flags. With people yelling out the window.

This motorcade snaked around the polling place the entire time I was there (2 hrs)

Let me just say that a line of Semis honking at the same time is *LOUD*. Listening to this for hours is jarring.

Election officials, who were extremely professional, could not give instructions to people in line because no one could hear them. People covered their ears.

At some point the people in line started yelling at the trucks. Some of which stopped, and started yelling back. There were enough police/officials to keep things from escalating.

But all this being said: There is no telling what Nov 3 is going to be like. Vote early!

That's actually a pretty good representation of Trump, himself.  

[mijan]

More facts about Iowa early voting

Today for the first time GOP win early vote in IA. They win by 300 votes. But, I think its too late.

R finally takes 176 votes lead in IA 4. R outnumbers  D in IA 4 210k to 120 k in terms of registered  voters.
But, Dems are still going strong in other three, remember Polk county still has many ballots yet to return .

227k Gop voters have voted early , in 2016 225 k R voted early . 2k R more voted in 2020, but they still blown away as 364 k D have voted early , in 2016 267 k D voted early. 97 k D more voted in 2020.


899 k voters requested for early ballots .
D 436 k
R 285 k

Overall R are still in poor conditions and on their way to lose Pres,senate, and IA 1,2,3. If there is below the average turnout on election day in IA 4, they could lose IA 4 also.

Where are you getting your IA early vote data?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

[Rep Jessica]

Two counties have now broken their 2016 total vote now.

Hays and Williamson.

Quote Tweet
Contented Independent
@ContentedIndie
 · 56m
Looks like Williamson County is the first Texas county to break its total vote from 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

So banking on the 25% of the country that is rural while getting crushed in the 25% that's urban and losing handily in the 50% that's suburban wasn't a good strategy for Trump?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

Honestly, these numbers are underwhelming for Trump IMO in light of the massive Dem VBM advantage.  It seems like the GOP is on track to get the typical 80% turnout, which might have been enough in 2016 when Dem turnout was down but probably not enough this year, especially when Indies are going to swing to Biden.

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

Honestly, these numbers are underwhelming for Trump IMO in light of the massive Dem VBM advantage.  It seems like the GOP is on track to get the typical 80% turnout, which might have been enough in 2016 when Dem turnout was down but probably not enough this year, especially when Indies are going to swing to Biden.

Further, look at how NPA's are voting, almost 2:1 VBM. That is interesting. It may show a bias toward voting D if D's are trending VBM and R's early in person. The NPA's are breaking 2:1 VBM.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320108039295455236

[libertpaulian]

Florida is tightening...sigh...

[EJ24]

The NPA's in Florida will decide the winner.

They are voting by mail by a 2:1 margin.

That is very interesting, and likely very good for Mr. Biden.

STOP THE BEDWETTING OVER BUZZ AND JESSICA'S CHERRYPICKED TWEETS.

[BudgieForce]

https://www.jamesmadison.org/floridas-changing-electorate-more-racially-ethnically-and-age-diverse/

The graphs are a little old, but the point being made about NPA's is accurate. NPA's are skewing younger and less white. Those demographics tend to favor democrats. While I don't want to put the cart before the horse, no one should assume NPA's are going to evenly split between democrat and republican.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I interrupt the Florida bedwetting to bring you an update on Texas' early vote numbers:


Day 11 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 23)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:     678,155     33.9%
2016:     869,392     38.9%  (73.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     755,877     32.3%
2020:  1,020,885     41.2%  (77.8% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:     386,654     32.8%
2016:     485,081     37.7%  (68.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     468,715     35.1%
2020:     563,148     40.3%  (74.2% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     364,509     37.4%
2016:     457,966     42.5%  (75.0% of 2012 turnout) 
2018:     413,372     36.8%
2020:     482,640     39.8%  (72.2% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:     324,157     35.3%
2016:     424,135     40.6%  (82.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     370,277     33.7%
2020:     466,498     39.2%  (79.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     201,373     31.8%
2016:     334,132     46.1%  (86.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     326,927     42.1%
2020:     399,954     46.8%  (85.3% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     190,790     41.6%
2016:     270,853     50.4%  (89.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     254,362     43.9%
2020:     333,514     51.4%  (92.3% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     148,107     38.3%
2016:     214,546     46.2%  (88.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     203,582     40.9%
2020:     283,253     50.1%  (94.9% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:       82,035     21.4%
2016:     133,304     31.1%  (77.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     123,951     27.2%
2020:     158,017     32.4%  (73.8% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     142,101     41.8%
2016:     189,548     46.9%  (86.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     175,336     40.6%
2020:     225,171     46.7%  (85.9% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:       88,890     29.2%
2016:     123,851     36.6%  (89.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     100,773     27.9%
2020:     130,747     33.4%  (75.4% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:       90,980     35.9%
2016:     144,966     48.3%  (88.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     145,475     43.6%
2020:     193,856     51.4%  (95.5% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     108,377     40.9%
2016:     140,912     45.2%  (81.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     124,416     37.3%
2020:     161,244     43.6%  (78.8% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:       74,037     39.9%
2016:       91,675     44.0%  (83.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:       80,519     37.9%
2020:     102,655     44.9%  (83.5% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:       36,878     20.4%
2016:       55,823     28.2%  (72.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:       48,341     23.4%
2020:       68,504     31.3%  (74.4% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     53,194     27.7%
2016:     66,442     33.3%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     59,898     29.2%
2020:     80,454     38.0%  (77.1% of 2016 turnout)