2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

HAYS County has surpassed 70k and is just 2k shy of TOTAL 2016 turnout.  They’ll pass it today. They need to hit 80k to break the 2018 record, which they’ll do sometime early next week. I’ll be shocked if Hays total turnout this election doesn’t break 100k. I think Biden will net 20k+ out of here.

Ok, that's done it: dropping $50 on PredictIt for Biden to win Texas.

I bet 2 friends who don’t follow politics at all $100 each on Texas, so I got $200 riding on Biden. These bitches better get out and vote pronto

[EJ24]

To be honest, it's hard not to get excited/confident about Texas. If they are already at 71% of the TOTAL 2016 vote, and we know early vote favors Dems, I think it's gonna a pretty tall order for Republicans to totally erase that.

If early turnout matched 2016 and Dems had the advantage, that's one thing. But this, combined with the changing demographics of the state. I can't help it, I'm feeling really optimistic.

[psychprofessor]

To be honest, it's hard not to get excited/confident about Texas. If they are already at 71% of the TOTAL 2016 vote, and we know early vote favors Dems, I think it's gonna a pretty tall order for Republicans to totally erase that.

If early turnout matched 2016 and Dems had the advantage, that's one thing. But this, combined with the changing demographics of the state. I can't help it, I'm feeling really optimistic.

There really isn't one place where Dem turnout isn't enthusiastic. This isn't 2016 - the question becomes does Dem turnout overtake R's in states like NC, GA, AZ and TX? I think Biden can win one or two of these states if the election were today.

[Tintrlvr]

I live right next to one of the early voting centers in Brooklyn that is open for the first time today. I just came back home and had to cross the line to get inside. People I spoke to had been waiting since before it opened at 10am and were not inside the polling place yet (after more than 2 hours in line).

Anecdata but I don’t think NY is going to release early voting data at all because the Board of Elections is a joke, so this is what we’ll get.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

An interesting bit of insight from Nate Cohn with regard to ballot counting in Arizona:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319969436137410562

Do we have a thread compiling covid era reporting progressions since these are likely to differ from the norm. Mainly at this stage, what states can be expected to count mail in and early votes quickly, versus those that will take days.

I read that NC expects to have most of them counted by election day?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320035870838325250
Ok this is bad. This is supposed to be souls to the polls weekend time

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320035870838325250
Ok this is bad. This is supposed to be souls to the polls weekend time

Their isn’t church on Saturday.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320035870838325250
Ok this is bad. This is supposed to be souls to the polls weekend time

Their isn’t church on Saturday.

I’m speaking in general that the weekend is supposed to be the big turnout time for Dems these are bad numbers and VBM isn’t great either

[Rep Jessica]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320035870838325250
Ok this is bad. This is supposed to be souls to the polls weekend time

Starting to like what I am seeing!!!! I really doubt the opinions of the Florida voters have changed since 2018 and Trump is probably favored. That is the honest truth.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1320036568783093760?s=21

[Gass3268]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

There is like a 90% chance that Republicans are just cannibalizing their election day vote, exactly as Dems have done in the past. Y'all are ridiculous.

[Non Swing Voter]

Morning data file from the Florida DOE.   Statewide Democrats inching closer to their 2016 EV Turnout number.  Gains from yesterday

Dem-   43.2% (+3.4)
Rep-    36.7% (+4.1)
NPA-    27.4% (+2.8 )



Looking at County specifics-

Larger counties chugging along (go Palm Beach & Pinellas).  However, look at mid-size counties, doing quite well but that is to be expected given they are mostly retirement counties and have the time to vote mid-week.  I expect Larger counties to make a run this weekend (more working class & hopefully souls to the polls)



Note:  Democrats in 3 of Florida's 68 counties have already surpassed '16 EV Turnout.   This includes the relatively large Pasco County- Suburb of Tampa....hmmmmm.  

Democrats in many more counties will surpass EV numbers today.

Most useful info being posted on this site.  Thank you!!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

There is like a 90% chance that Republicans are just cannibalizing their election day vote, exactly as Dems have done in the past. Y'all are ridiculous.

Explain, darthpi!

[Non Swing Voter]

Can everyone stop freaking out over the daily partisan breakdown in Florida and just focus on the charts Flabuckey is posting.  Democrats were never going to maintain a 400,000 vote advantage in Florida, that's why it's a battleground state.  The key for Democrats is to get their turnout up.  The single most important number to look at is the percentage of registered democrats voting and how it moves each day.  Flabuckey is providing that info and there should be more focus on that.  Democrats just need to get their people out in Florida, period.

[Panda Express]

Yeah, Dems need to get those Miami numbers up. Can't Pitbull hold an event or something?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

There is like a 90% chance that Republicans are just cannibalizing their election day vote, exactly as Dems have done in the past. Y'all are ridiculous.

Explain, darthpi!

In a state where Republicans already turn out at a high rate because of a well-organized party apparatus, almost all of the early vote for them is probably just coming from people who were going to vote anyway on election day if they hadn't voted early. If their early vote numbers are better than some people are expecting, there's a high chance that the election day advantage for Republicans actually won't be as large as many people are assuming.

[Donerail]

And if you keep getting ~500,000 votes every day of early voting (as we did today), you won't have any votes left for ED, whatever their partisan composition

[Bootes Void]

Yeah, Dems need to get those Miami numbers up. Can't Pitbull hold an event or something?

They had Luis fonsi in Central Florida and played despacito but people complained that it was cheasy or pandering

[exopolitician]

Yeah, Dems need to get those Miami numbers up. Can't Pitbull hold an event or something?

I'm pretty sure Obama is holding an event there.

[Gass3268]

Big mail drop in Clark County today:

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1319895049312808960?s=21

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

There is like a 90% chance that Republicans are just cannibalizing their election day vote, exactly as Dems have done in the past. Y'all are ridiculous.

But that’s not what the tweet said. Reps still have a lot more 4/4 votes left compared to Dems

[Xing]

Big mail drop in Clark County today:

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1319895049312808960?s=21

Democrats are just 6K shy of their advantage in Clark in 2016 by the end of EV, and just one week has finished.

[Gass3268]

Big mail drop in Clark County today:

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1319895049312808960?s=21

This guy makes a good point about mail. Given the issues with the post office, you are gonna have some good mail days and some bad mail days. Really depends on post office performance. Also this is a good time to start reminding people that they should stop putting their ballots in the mail and start using drop boxes.