2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is everybody so obsessed with Florida? It has no senate race on the ballot, there is no chance of flipping one of the state houses, and it will likely only vote for Dems if they don't need it.

Florida is probably one of the states where early vote is more telling.  We know that Democrats need to keep parity with Republicans there to have a great shot of winning.  So we can see how they are turning out each day.  They are probably targeting 80%+ turnout and we can see the number tick up each day.  The numbers are also coming in a lot more than the other big prize, Pennsylvania, which is tallying ballots very slowly.

[Roll Roons]

Why is everybody so obsessed with Florida? It has no senate race on the ballot, there is no chance of flipping one of the state houses, and it will likely only vote for Biden if he doesn't need it.

Because we'll know the results there on election night. If Biden wins it, he's almost certainly won 270 and Trump will have a much harder time contesting the results.

[woodley park]

Why is everybody so obsessed with Florida? It has no senate race on the ballot, there is no chance of flipping one of the state houses, and it will likely only vote for Biden if he doesn't need it.

Because if Biden claims Florida on Election Night, it is definitively over. And it strengthens his Electoral College victory if he wins Florida.

[Flabuckeye]

People are over freaking out about Miami-Dade.  They are above where they were at this point in 2016 which was the most votes ever out of the county....they are just late arriving by nature.

Haven’t you ever seen a Dolphins game?  No one there until Q2.  

[Bootes Void]

Why all the bad news about Florida? It's all turnout and getting Dems to return their ballots

[DaleCooper]

I'm just spitballing here, but isn't it also possible that Republicans are doing relatively well in Florida early voting because old retirees are more likely to vote on weekdays? It's just a guess, but I'd need to see their gains hold during the weekend for me to get worried.

I'm no expert, but the panicking seems premature and unfounded.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Sunday early voting could tell us whether AA turnout is actually going to be a concern for Biden or not. He probably won't be able to do better than Obama but if he can get closer to 2012 than 2016 then he should be safely cruising to victory and will have good odds in Florida. If it's like 2016 he probably won't win Florida but his gains with the elderly and whites should still give him the edge. But if he does worse than Hillary then that totally changes the picture in the Midwest plus GA and NC.

[brucejoel99]

People are over freaking out about Miami-Dade.  They are above where they were at this point in 2016 which was the most votes ever out of the county....they are just late arriving by nature.

Haven’t you ever seen a Dolphins game?  No one there until Q2.  

Hell, we don't even show up to a Marlins game 'til at least the 10th inning

[Rep Jessica]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

[Bootes Void]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

All I see is things speeding up for both parties. From this thread you would think Trump would win by 5% 2004 style

[EJ24]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

All I see is things speeding up for both parties. From this thread you would think Trump would win by 5% 2004 style

I think the bigger concern in Florida is that election day turnout will be 60-40 in favor of GOP, which might be enough to put them over the top if they hang with Dems in early vote.

However, people are forgetting the NPA vote, which if we believe polls, probably benefits Biden at least slightly.

[Gass3268]

It’s pretty clear everyone missed this from earlier.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

[Rep Jessica]

ET Breaking News
@breaking_et
·
13m

El Paso County, TX


In 2016, a total of 210,955 ballots were cast in the General Election.

As of now, 156,737 people have voted so far.

75% turnout from 2016

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

Here's the thing.  1/2 a million ballots are being processed a day now and Republicans are only cutting into the lead like 30-40k a day.  Not all that impressive.  Democrats are turning out too and people here are reading too much into the horserace.  Should just look at the percentage turnout of Dems.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

The age wave is back, it's been hiding since 2008.

[Gass3268]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

Here's the thing.  1/2 a million ballots are being processed a day now and Republicans are only cutting into the lead like 30-40k a day.  Not all that impressive.  Democrats are turning out too and people here are reading too much into the horserace.  Should just look at the percentage turnout of Dems.

It’s like people are expecting Republicans won’t vote. My guess is Democrats will be a bit stronger this weekend. Might not win the days, but they could do better.

[tagimaucia]

Yeah, I'd bet a lot that there will be a 2008 level 18-29-yo share of the electorate this year, if not even higher.  Due to pure negative partisanship/hatred of Trump (def not enthusiasm about Biden!)

[Alben Barkley]

I'm just spitballing here, but isn't it also possible that Republicans are doing relatively well in Florida early voting because old retirees are more likely to vote on weekdays? It's just a guess, but I'd need to see their gains hold during the weekend for me to get worried.

I'm no expert, but the panicking seems premature and unfounded.

And let’s not forget that based on the polls it is quite likely a bunch of seniors who are registered Republican and haven’t voted for a Democrat in years are voting for Biden. But you wouldn’t know that from the party ID.

[Gass3268]

Is this happening again?

https://twitter.com/maryellenklas/status/1319617945023205377?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

The age wave is back, it's been hiding since 2008.

Not shocked with the Michigan numbers given this is the first year with no excuse absentee in Michigan. Florida and North Carolina are very impressive.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Final Friday Update:, 214,549 votes were cast on Friday.

This includes 163,820 in-person votes and 50,729 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,625,250 in-person & 919,703 by mail, for a grand total of 2,544,953 (61.10% of 2016 total vote).

[Non Swing Voter]

This link allows you to see on a precinct level, absentee ballots in Virginia

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/absentee-ballots-precinct-nov-2020/

even though ti says potential votes, it's probably pretty close to actual votes because most people are just showing up, getting their ballot and voting all at once. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

Seems like we've been on schedule for 2 nights in a row

[Non Swing Voter]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

Seems like we've been on schedule for 2 nights in a row

So the Nevada freak out starts now?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/AZElections/status/1319757788000604160