COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[roxas11]

Shame on Obama.

Shame on Sturgis.

Shame on Lollapalooza.


Anyone organizing or hosting a large gathering like these is doing so at the detriment to overall society.  And possibly creating situations in which people will eventually get sick and die.  I don't care who you are or what party you vote with...there should simply be no large gatherings until it's safe--and it isn't.  Vaccinated or not.  Even if the crowd is 100% vaccinated, as I suspect with the Obama birthday party, even then it sends a terrible message to the rest of the country struggling to get through this; it sends the wrong message and it's discouraging.  He should be sensible enough to realize it, and turning 60 with a bunch of rich celebs at your party sends such an unneeded "elitist" message at the absolute worst time.

And the unvaccinated morons at Sturgis.  I mean, what will it take for these people?  Their kids dying of covid?  Will they listen then?

Wait until the pandemic subsides/ends.

[walleye26]

Shame on Obama.

Shame on Sturgis.

Shame on Lollapalooza.


Anyone organizing or hosting a large gathering like these is doing so at the detriment to overall society.  And possibly creating situations in which people will eventually get sick and die.  I don't care who you are or what party you vote with...there should simply be no large gatherings until it's safe--and it isn't.  Vaccinated or not.  Even if the crowd is 100% vaccinated, as I suspect with the Obama birthday party, even then it sends a terrible message to the rest of the country struggling to get through this; it sends the wrong message and it's discouraging.  He should be sensible enough to realize it, and turning 60 with a bunch of rich celebs at your party sends such an unneeded "elitist" message at the absolute worst time.

And the unvaccinated morons at Sturgis.  I mean, what will it take for these people?  Their kids dying of covid?  Will they listen then?

Wait until the pandemic subsides/ends.

Hard disagree. There is an acceptable amount of risk that we all carry in our lives, all the time. I could be killed in a crash driving from work. But I wear my seatbelt and accept that risk. Likewise, the flu kills tens of thousands in a normal year but we only very rarely shut something down for a flu outbreak. The fact is, the government can help mitigate public health measures, but with vaccines providing excellent protection against severe covid, it’s time now for the government to let people make their own choices. Schools should be able to require masks for kids, but now it’s time for the government to let people incur these risks.

[pppolitics]

I expect South Dakota to explode in COVID cases due to the motorcycle rally.

Everyone said that last year too. But it never happened.

You remember wrong.

Aside from SD, there were also surges in nearby states that were attributed to the rally.

It did.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I expect South Dakota to explode in COVID cases due to the motorcycle rally.

Everyone said that last year too. But it never happened.

Wrong, that is precisely what happened last year too, and it was a significant contributor to the pandemic in nearby states as well.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-2020-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-caused-widespread-transmission-of-covid-19/ar-BB1ghT69

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/south-dakota/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I expect South Dakota to explode in COVID cases due to the motorcycle rally.

Everyone said that last year too. But it never happened.

You remember wrong.

Aside from SD, there were also surges in nearby states that were attributed to the rally.

It did.

That study from those economists was debunked.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Sadly, there is more to fear than fear itself (even if you are sensible enough to be vaccinated). Such as the possibility that you will get into a car accident or something similar and need emergency medical care, but not be able to get a hospital bed due to (mostly) the unvaccinated idiots clogging up all the hospitals in certain areas. Or long COVID. Chronic conditions that can last for years (or who knows how long, potentially for the rest of your life) are no joke.

[pppolitics]

I expect South Dakota to explode in COVID cases due to the motorcycle rally.

Everyone said that last year too. But it never happened.

You remember wrong.

Aside from SD, there were also surges in nearby states that were attributed to the rally.

It did.

That study from those economists was debunked.

COVID doesn't exist.

Fake news!

[emailking]

It's so weird seeing hysterical coverage like this while concerts, ball games, fairs, and other mass events are happening basically as they were in 2019 in most parts of the country:

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1424405873472966661?s=20

Why is the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally being singled out for national coverage again this year, as if most people were living under the same regulations and voluntary restrictions that were constraining them last summer? Is it just because these people seem weird and uncouth?

I think it's a stretch to call that hysterical and a stretch to say that Fauci was chastising anybody.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I expect South Dakota to explode in COVID cases due to the motorcycle rally.

Everyone said that last year too. But it never happened.

You remember wrong.

Aside from SD, there were also surges in nearby states that were attributed to the rally.

It did.

That study from those economists was debunked.

I guess you mean 'debunked' in the same sense that COVID was shown to be a 'myth' by some youtubers.

In seriousness, actual constructive criticism of studies is always a welcome thing with the scientific method, but it appears that is not what you are interested in.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/17/fact-check-sturgis-rallys-covid-19-cases-misstated-online-post/3458606001/

[Horus]

Sadly, there is more to fear than fear itself (even if you are sensible enough to be vaccinated). Such as the possibility that you will get into a car accident or something similar and need emergency medical care, but not be able to get a hospital bed due to (mostly) the unvaccinated idiots clogging up all the hospitals in certain areas. Or long COVID. Chronic conditions that can last for years (or who knows how long, potentially for the rest of your life) are no joke.

So we're supposed to live in a permanent state of depression, anxiety and fear? Not sure what the point of your response was.

Fighting a virus and fighting a war are pretty similar. The quote makes perfect sense.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, I've been vaccinated. So has almost everyone else I know. So I don't see what we have to fear.

[jamestroll]

Please I am begging for people to not to live in fear and keep the economy going but take all precautions and tools we have at our disposal to fight this pandemic. please

[Florida Man for Crime]

There is an acceptable amount of risk that we all carry in our lives, all the time. I could be killed in a crash driving from work. But I wear my seatbelt and accept that risk.

This is true, but there is a risk that when you get into your car crash, you will find that the hospital can't take you if it is too full of COVID patients, which is the point that seems to be starting to be reached in Florida, Texas, and some other areas. Given that the hospital need not be full of COVID patients, is that a risk you think you should need to take? This could be the difference between getting killed in your car crash or surviving it. Kind of like wearing your seatbelt, actually!

[Florida Man for Crime]

So we're supposed to live in a permanent state of depression, anxiety and fear? Not sure what the point of your response was.

Fighting a virus and fighting a war are pretty similar. The quote makes perfect sense.

The point was wrong, so I rebutted it. We *do* have things to fear other than fear itself, and to say otherwise in general is a foolish statement. Yes, it sounded good politically at the time FDR said it, but as a general risk-management procedure, it is foolish to think like that.

In a war, you should definitely fear things other than fear itself, such as being shot or hit by artillery shrapnel.



Anyway, as far as the virus goes and how to approach it (a different question than the merits of that FDR quote), I would say that there are other things we can do besides just "living in a permanent state of depression, anxiety and fear" on the one hand, or letting it run totally rampant on the other hand. I would say that is a false dichotomy.

Since this followed from a discussion of large gatherings, I would say that it would be reasonable right now to avoid large gatherings/festivals in order to make it more likely that other more important things such as schools for children can be run safely without resulting in the medical system getting overwhelmed.

And of course there are many other things we should be doing more broadly such as massively ramping up vaccine production and solving logistical problems preventing quick vaccination in much of the world (we should set as a goal to have the global capacity to produce and administer vaccines for the entire world within a few months for potential new variants), overcoming vaccine hesitancy in countries where that is a problem such as the USA through combinations of increasingly large carrots and also increasingly large sticks, increasing funding for monitoring COVID and other viruses in animals that could cross over to humans, and working to reduce the probability of future zoonosis (better sanitation, not encroaching as much on habitats of wild animals with potentially dangerous viruses), reviewing and strengthening biosecurity protocols, etc etc etc.

If we were to do those sorts of things, we could avoid "living lives in a permanent state of depression, anxiety and fear" while also not simply pretending that the risks are not significant and just sweeping them under the rug and ignoring them.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Please I am begging for people to not to live in fear and keep the economy going but take all precautions and tools we have at our disposal to fight this pandemic. please

There is a middle ground between this "living in fear" talking point (which I think is largely a straw man) and simply not trying to control the virus at all and having large festivals and/or having in-person schools without wearing masks like the governors of Florida and Texas want.

It is not "living in fear" to not go to large festivals or to think that they ought not to be held right now. It is simply responsible behavior. There are plenty of other things we can do besides going to large festivals to amuse ourselves.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting development: a close relative of mine had COVID (positive test, symptomatic) early this year. He then got fully vaccinated when he became eligible last Spring. Yesterday he was feeling sick with COVID symptoms again and it was confirmed by multiple positive tests.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Shame on Obama.

Shame on Sturgis.

Shame on Lollapalooza.


Anyone organizing or hosting a large gathering like these is doing so at the detriment to overall society.  And possibly creating situations in which people will eventually get sick and die.  I don't care who you are or what party you vote with...there should simply be no large gatherings until it's safe--and it isn't.  Vaccinated or not.  Even if the crowd is 100% vaccinated, as I suspect with the Obama birthday party, even then it sends a terrible message to the rest of the country struggling to get through this; it sends the wrong message and it's discouraging.  He should be sensible enough to realize it, and turning 60 with a bunch of rich celebs at your party sends such an unneeded "elitist" message at the absolute worst time.

And the unvaccinated morons at Sturgis.  I mean, what will it take for these people?  Their kids dying of covid?  Will they listen then?

Wait until the pandemic subsides/ends.

I can’t agree with this either.
Once you are vaccinated, the threat of covid is much less than the threat of the flu or any number of other virus.
And frankly, covid is likely going to be with us forever.  If you are vaccinated and still afraid of covid, you are going to be living in fear your entire lift.

The one remaining concern I have is that children cannot yet be vaccinated.  The threat to young kids is obvoiusly still much less than to unvaccinated adults, but with the delta variant it is probably greater than the threat to vaccinated adults.  

I don’t quite understand why there hasn’t been more public pressure on the FDA to approve the vaccine for children more quickly.  I really expected approval by the fall when they moved so quickly for the 12-15 year olds, and I haven’t heard of any problems among this age group.  Why aren’t there pro-vaccine rallies demanding FDA action of at least the same vigor and the we see in the anti-vaxxers?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Shame on Obama.

Shame on Sturgis.

Shame on Lollapalooza.


Anyone organizing or hosting a large gathering like these is doing so at the detriment to overall society.  And possibly creating situations in which people will eventually get sick and die.  I don't care who you are or what party you vote with...there should simply be no large gatherings until it's safe--and it isn't.  Vaccinated or not.  Even if the crowd is 100% vaccinated, as I suspect with the Obama birthday party, even then it sends a terrible message to the rest of the country struggling to get through this; it sends the wrong message and it's discouraging.  He should be sensible enough to realize it, and turning 60 with a bunch of rich celebs at your party sends such an unneeded "elitist" message at the absolute worst time.

And the unvaccinated morons at Sturgis.  I mean, what will it take for these people?  Their kids dying of covid?  Will they listen then?

Wait until the pandemic subsides/ends.

I can’t agree with this either.
Once you are vaccinated, the threat of covid is much less than the threat of the flu or any number of other virus.
And frankly, covid is likely going to be with us forever.  If you are vaccinated and still afraid of covid, you are going to be living in fear your entire lift.

The one remaining concern I have is that children cannot yet be vaccinated.  The threat to young kids is obvoiusly still much less than to unvaccinated adults, but with the delta variant it is probably greater than the threat to vaccinated adults.  

I don’t quite understand why there hasn’t been more public pressure on the FDA to approve the vaccine for children more quickly.  I really expected approval by the fall when they moved so quickly for the 12-15 year olds, and I haven’t heard of any problems among this age group.  Why aren’t there pro-vaccine rallies demanding FDA action of at least the same vigor and the we see in the anti-vaxxers?

Because that's all already happening, so such protests would be pointless demonstrations of ignorance?

FDA, under pressure, plans ‘sprint’ to accelerate review of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for full approval
The F.D.A. could grant full approval to Pfizer’s vaccine by early September.
Covid vaccines for kids under 12 expected midwinter, FDA official says

[pbrower2a]

It's so weird seeing hysterical coverage like this while concerts, ball games, fairs, and other mass events are happening basically as they were in 2019 in most parts of the country:

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1424405873472966661?s=20

Why is the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally being singled out for national coverage again this year, as if most people were living under the same regulations and voluntary restrictions that were constraining them last summer? Is it just because these people seem weird and uncouth?

It could be that motorcycle clubs have an often-sinister reputation, and that motorcycle riders seem a reckless lot. people assume the worst about motorcyclists that they don't assume about another "lifestyle" -- Holy-Roller Christians -- that are also associated with high rates of COVID-19 infections.

Add to this, motorcyclists are highly mobile. Those attending the Sturgis festival could end up bringing back COVID-19 to places like Sturgis, Michigan and Sturgis, Kentucky. or -- well, anywhere that motorcyclists might congregate. At least the Holy Rollers aren't so mobile.

The rally of last year turned into a super-spreader event, and this festival will likely be much the same.     

[Inmate Trump]

Interesting development: a close relative of mine had COVID (positive test, symptomatic) early this year. He then got fully vaccinated when he became eligible last Spring. Yesterday he was feeling sick with COVID symptoms again and it was confirmed by multiple positive tests.

That’s…not good.

Your think he’d have antibodies from both his first infection and the vaccine. To get covid again so soon is odd. I can also personally attest to several people needing to be hospitalized with covid even while being fully vaccinated. I know it’s still a small percentage of the total of those fully vaxxed, but it does help to further the uneasiness a lot of people have.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1424195207088676865

'It's going to disappear': A timeline of Trump's claims that Covid-19 will vanish

[Omega21]

The Other "One Percenter":



It still kills about one percent of those that it successfully infects.

I hope that there are plenty of needles in Sturgis, and I do not mean for tattoo artistry.

1%, when counting 80-year-olds.

However, if you exclude people who can't bike anymore, i.e. 80-year-olds, it's lower.

This is about the same as when CNN screamed more Americans died from Covid than in Vietnam.

Sure, if a 19-year-olds death is the same as an 85-year-old's.

Note that Covid is definitely not to be underestimated, as it does sadly kill even young people sometimes, so I would encourage everyone to take their vaccines. I just don't like poor statistical analysis.

[pbrower2a]

The Other "One Percenter":



It still kills about one percent of those that it successfully infects.

I hope that there are plenty of needles in Sturgis, and I do not mean for tattoo artistry.

1%, when counting 80-year-olds.

However, if you exclude people who can't bike anymore, i.e. 80-year-olds, it's lower.

This is about the same as when CNN screamed more Americans died from Covid than in Vietnam.

Sure, if a 19-year-olds death is the same as an 85-year-old's.

Note that Covid is definitely not to be underestimated, as it does sadly kill even young people sometimes, so I would encourage everyone to take their vaccines. I just don't like poor statistical analysis.

Perception of the value of life and necessary expendability (we accept combat deaths but not deaths that result from crime) is obvious. A 19-year-old typically has yet to establish what he is, and an 85-year-old is typically at the end of the line in achievements. So?

There is no good side to COVID-19.

I have looked at the overall statistics, and they may be obsolete, but a 1% chance of death from infectious diseases is unusually high in the Industrial West among people whose immune systems are compromised.

it does not kill as the Spanish influenza did (cytokine storm that turns the body against itself) or HIV-AIDS, although we do not yet know the real (as in five years or so) prognosis of lasting effects. But nothing good can happen. Think of rheumatic fever which does heart damage effectively a ticking time-bomb that kills people before their time. Rheumatic heart disease is a reality.

More Americans have died from COVID-19 than Americans did in combat in any war except perhaps the Civil war in absolute numbers. It is not a perfect analogue for warfare, but it certainly kills in large numbers.

Yes, heart attacks, strokes, falls, and vehicle crashes are statistically more dangerous. We just do not have the story of COVID-19.  Aside from the untimely deaths are also organ disease, diabetes, cognitive decline, and sexual dysfunction as one might expect from partial suffocation. Cancer? Birth defects? Infertility? We may have no clue yet.

There is no perfect assessment of the danger of COVID-19 yet. I looked at infections and related deaths and saw over 1%.       

[Torie]

I just got a call from my contractor up in Hudson, NY. I am in Hoboken. A mason showed up to do some work on the lintels on a house that I am redoing that is well ventilated because it was gutted, and has some "holes" in it. Two days after, the mason and two of my contractor's workers got sick. All three who got sick had not been vaccinated, one with a very high morbidity risk, but thankfully, not sick enough yet to have to go to the hospital. My contractor and everyone else has now taken tests. Yes, my contractor was vaccinated. Delta is really, really contagious, even in very well ventilated settings. For the moment, work has stopped.

Below is the image of the "super-spreader" site.

[jamestroll]

Shame on the United States with our access to vaccines, large amounts of PPE and decent medical facilities.

With the resources we have we should have near zero deaths as vaccination and masking could keep cases to low that the very few hospitalizations can get proper care.

We don't have to make the choice between the economy and public health and honestly we really never did.