2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[swf541]

Targetsmart is garbage, mama.

are they off by a lot? i started using them today to check things out.

They were horrid in 2016, dont remember if they did much in 18

[swf541]

Got my ballot today

[swf541]

Long lines & big crowds in Minnesota/Ohio/Virginia: "Look at all the enthusiasm! Dems are gonna do great here for sure!"


Long lines & big crowds in Georgia: "Voter suppression! See why Democrats are foolish in even contesting this state?!?"

Yea this is pretty annoying, people should wait to complain about said states until people are actually reporting actual issues.

[swf541]

Can we just talk about early voting in this thread please

[swf541]

How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

They were horrid in 16+18 dont use them

[swf541]

Reading the article, seems over 90% of that number is duplicates caused from people not realizing they already requested one during the primary. 

Seems not that big of a deal to me unless im missing smth

[swf541]

Yeah, the primary made it clear that PA could be a real trouble spot when it comes to ballot processing/counting. Really hope Biden takes Florida and ends the race on November 3rd.

Completely agreed, while I think PA will handle the voting results well in the end I do think its going to take them a seriously long time to process it.

[swf541]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

That's what they claim: voting history, demographics and consumer interest. But this completely conflicts with polls showing that those that voted already are overwhelmingly democratic. I think 25% of Democrats in WI that were polled already voted early; only 5% of Republicans according to Siena/NYT poll.

Either polls will be historically atrocious or TargetSmart is up to something.

Well given TargetSmart's history they're up to smth alright, being massively off as per normal for them lol

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

You need to keep your trash out of here

Can we also acknowledge the brag here isnt even good?  27% is below heavily...

[swf541]

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

[swf541]

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

What's the most likely Clinton state to flip then?  Seems like Minnesota and Nevada are the only ones Trump is still competing in and there's been articles suggesting that the Trump campaign thinks it's over in Minnesota.

Yea Nevada is the likeliest but has a miniscule chance of flipping still.

But this is just bcs of the process of elimination not any inherent trump strength in nevada

[swf541]

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

Yes, GOP embracal of Qanon has removed any ambiguity of the subject

[swf541]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate

Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

[swf541]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate

Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

TargetSmart tends to be off in both directions depending upon the circumstances; they're just wrong.

I'm aware im just giving an example and I remember that one the most

[swf541]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate

Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

TargetSmart tends to be off in both directions depending upon the circumstances; they're just wrong.

I'm aware im just giving an example and I remember that one the most

Ok cool. There's some people on here who say because pollster x was off by y % last time, it'll be off by the exact same amount this time, which i think is a poor way of looking at it.

I am very aware of this lol
and yea it's a really poor way of dealing with polling biases

[swf541]

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

There is SOME value in looking into the data, just both sides here like to overhype/overdismiss it

[swf541]

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

There is SOME value in looking into the data, just both sides here like to overhype/overdismiss it

I seem to remember 2016 everyone saying Clinton had it IN THE BAG due to early voting. Turned out her supporters just voted early. Same thing happening here.

Does not change the fact that Biden is much farther ahead then Clinton was. But still regardless this means nothing for either a Trump or Biden win.

Agreed on 2016,

And it does matter in some states

[swf541]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

[swf541]

So combining VBM and early in-person did the Republicans make up ground in Florida today?

The prior posted numbers also didnt have Miami-Dade we do we dont even know the actual gop margin advantage statewide for in person ev

[swf541]

Ralston reported that Reps beat Dems 2-1 in Washoe today.

yeah:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318765844831244289

Yay!!! Go Trump!

Congrats fascist your now on my block list

Getting srsly irked with people just posting partisan stuff and clogging up the chat

[swf541]

Florida is at 38% of our 2016 turnout, if we get ~500k tomorrow we could get to 43% tomorrow

Damn, what was the total early vote vs election day breakdown in terms of overall percentage of the vote in 2016+2018?

[swf541]

Plus, you can assume some NeverTrump Republicans are still registered as R but top of the ticket will be abstaining/voting 3rd party/voting Biden. I can't imagine that there's many registered D's that will be voting Trump.

Never Trump republicans are far fewer than working class democrat Trump supporters. Outside the world of DC think tanks and National Review, Republicans tend to like Trump (maybe not as a person, but his policies at least). This isn't 1992. Trump got 94% of the GOP primary vote.

Yes lets ignore the senior voters many of whom are likely registered R, especially in florida the GOP told to effectively to go die in a ditch for the sake of the dollar...