2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[GP270watch]

https://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/general-election-early-voting-stats102020.pdf

Today's Miami-Dade numbers no partisan breakdown, voter locations look similar in tally.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout overall is still much better than Republican so far in Florida:

Democratic      31.5%
Republican      23.0%
Other      18.3%
All Voters      24.8%

(this means, 31.5% of all registered Democrats have already cast ballots whereas only 23% of all Republicans)

[Horus]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Yeah I'm not seeing the problem? Florida was always going to be close, today's numbers so far look like they're pretty much breaking even.

[Xing]

Wow. So Republicans narrowly winning the in-person vote in FL while Democrats continue to pad to their overall advantage by winning the mail vote by a wide margin means FL is Safe R now? I get being cautious about making conclusions about the Democratic turnout advantage so far, but wetting the bed because of these numbers? Get a grip, Atlas.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

[It’s so Joever]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

[Non Swing Voter]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

It's up to 650k now? 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hillary had a 200,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.

Right and Biden is at 479,000 already. Just saying

[It’s so Joever]

Hillary had a 200,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.

Right and Biden is at 479,000 already. Just saying

You seemed to have selectively not read a sentence.
This was before VBM was politicized.

[Gass3268]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Yeah I'm not seeing the problem? Florida was always going to be close, today's numbers so far look like they're pretty much breaking even.

Did people not expect Republicans to show up? Democrats are probably going to add about 10K votes from yesterday. That's not awful. Throw the old rule book out window. Things are going to be different this year.

Steve Schale predicted this would happen just today and he was right.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1318662951088345090?s=20

[Tintrlvr]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

It's up to 650k now?  

I've even seen someone say 800k. Honestly, who knows. Maybe Biden could win Florida with a 300k advance vote advantage. Maybe he needs 900k. It's too hard to predict with any certainty.

Historically, the Dems do better with weekend EV than weekday EV in Florida, which may or may not hold this year, FWIW.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hillary had a 200,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.

Right and Biden is at 479,000 already. Just saying

You seemed to have selectively not read a sentence.
This was before VBM was politicized.

Not sure if you’ve been paying attention in the other thread by VBM and absentee ballots aren’t getting rejected at the rates everyone was fearing
Edit: Also Biden in now currently with 2 weeks left double Hillary’s EV lead by the end how does that translate to “the numbers don’t favor us”. I’m not declaring this a lock for Biden but get a gripe

[GP270watch]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

 You are conflating your information. In 2016 Hillary(Democrats) was up by 96,450 by party ID, that's all we could know prior to Election Day. After Election Day when the vote was tabulated we could go back and see she actually entered Election Day with a real lead of nearly 250,000 votes and Trump ended up swinging that to win by 112,911.

[It’s so Joever]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

 You are conflating your information. In 2016 Hillary(Democrats) was up by 92,176 by party ID, that's all we could know prior to Election Day. After election day when the vote was tabulated we could go back and see she actually entered election day with a real lead of actual votes around nearly 250,000 votes and Trump ended up swinging that to win by 112,911.

...You are correct.
I should have been more careful with my information.

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

This is patently false dude. She had a 60k lead in the total early vote and Dems actually lost the VBM in 2016.

[It’s so Joever]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

This is patently false dude. She had a 60k lead in the total early vote and Dems actually lost the VBM in 2016.

Her final lead before Election Day was about 250,000 votes.

As GP pointed out, I mixed up Party Registration with final outcome.

[Gass3268]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

This is patently false dude. She had a 60k lead in the total early vote and Dems actually lost the VBM in 2016.

Her final lead before Election Day was about 250,000 votes.

As GP pointed out, I mixed up Party Registration with final outcome.

This is because NPA's lean hard to the left. Puerto Rican Americans and younger voters tend to register at greater rates as NPAs.

[DINGO Joe]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

This is patently false dude. She had a 60k lead in the total early vote and Dems actually lost the VBM in 2016.

Her final lead before Election Day was about 250,000 votes.

As GP pointed out, I mixed up Party Registration with final outcome.

Reported for conflating.

[MT Treasurer]

MONTANA, as of 10/19:

County (2016 Presidential vote, 2016 Gubernatorial vote, 2018 Senate vote) - % of mail-in ballots returned

Cascade (Trump +22, Bullock +10, Tester +5) - 35.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (Trump +36, Gianforte +15, Rosendale +15) - 19.8% of mail-ins returned

Gallatin (Clinton +1, Bullock +15, Tester +21) - 24.5% of mail-ins returned

Lake (Trump +21, Bullock +2, Tester +3) - 37.0% of mail-ins returned

Lewis & Clark (Trump +7, Bullock +23, Tester +18) - 46.0% of mail-ins returned

Missoula (Clinton +16, Bullock +34, Tester +37) - 34.2% of mail-ins returned

Ravalli (Trump +38, Gianforte +14, Rosendale +19) - 37.0% of mail-ins returned

Silver Bow (Clinton +14, Bullock +44, Tester +45) - 39.9% of mail-ins returned

Yellowstone (Trump +27, Gianforte +1, Rosendale +3.5) - 36.6% of mail-ins returned

Statewide: 32.6% of mail-ins returned (207.593 / 635.764)

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary had a 250,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.
The numbers simply don’t favor us.

 You are conflating your information. In 2016 Hillary(Democrats) was up by 92,176 by party ID, that's all we could know prior to Election Day. After Election Day when the vote was tabulated we could go back and see she actually entered Election Day with a real lead of nearly 250,000 votes and Trump ended up swinging that to win by 112,911.

Where are you getting the data for the early vote?

[Tintrlvr]

MONTANA, as of 10/19:

County (2016 Presidential vote, 2016 Gubernatorial vote, 2018 Senate vote) - % of mail-in ballots returned

Cascade (Trump +22, Bullock +10, Tester +5) - 35.9% of mail-ins returned

Flathead (Trump +36, Gianforte +15, Rosendale +15) - 19.8% of mail-ins returned

Gallatin (Clinton +1, Bullock +15, Tester +21) - 24.5% of mail-ins returned

Lake (Trump +21, Bullock +2, Tester +3) - 37.0% of mail-ins returned

Lewis & Clark (Trump +7, Bullock +23, Tester +18) - 46.0% of mail-ins returned

Missoula (Clinton +16, Bullock +34, Tester +37) - 34.2% of mail-ins returned

Ravalli (Trump +38, Gianforte +14, Rosendale +19) - 37.0% of mail-ins returned

Silver Bow (Clinton +14, Bullock +44, Tester +45) - 39.9% of mail-ins returned

Yellowstone (Trump +27, Gianforte +1, Rosendale +3.5) - 36.6% of mail-ins returned

Statewide: 32.6% of mail-ins returned (207.593 / 635.764)

Doesn't seem like much of a partisan pattern, honestly. May reflect more when ballots where first mailed out or how quickly counties are updating their tallies.

I assume these counties are all all-mail? I know a handful of mostly small MT counties are still doing in-person voting but not sure which ones.

[Non Swing Voter]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

It's up to 650k now?  

I've even seen someone say 800k. Honestly, who knows. Maybe Biden could win Florida with a 300k advance vote advantage. Maybe he needs 900k. It's too hard to predict with any certainty.

Historically, the Dems do better with weekend EV than weekday EV in Florida, which may or may not hold this year, FWIW.

Yeah, souls to the polls.

[philly09]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

It's up to 650k now?  

I've even seen someone say 800k. Honestly, who knows. Maybe Biden could win Florida with a 300k advance vote advantage. Maybe he needs 900k. It's too hard to predict with any certainty.

Historically, the Dems do better with weekend EV than weekday EV in Florida, which may or may not hold this year, FWIW.

As of now, the Democrats have a 517k lead in VBM and a 479k lead in the total vote.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1170489266

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Where do people get the 250k lead from?

This is from the Florida DOS site for 2016?



It was like 76k?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ralston reported that Reps beat Dems 2-1 in Washoe today.