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October 23, 2020, 07:14:19 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 78445 times)
swf541
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« Reply #1775 on: October 18, 2020, 10:52:35 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

Yes, GOP embracal of Qanon has removed any ambiguity of the subject
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1776 on: October 18, 2020, 10:54:56 AM »

Texas has temporarily surpassed Vermont as the leader with 43.2% of 2016's early vote numbers now in.

Harris County is now at ~600K early votes after 5 days, where 2016 took 8 days and 2012 13 days to reach that same figure.

Voting will be limited hours on Sunday and we can expect fewer ballots (Saturday only saw 75K in Harris compared to the 110K of Wed/Thu/Fri) and there will probably be a surge on Monday from people who didn't want to vote over the weekend, so Tuesday will be the next day we get a good estimate on the continuing trajectory.

What I would really be excited to see is 100% of 2016 turnout coming from early vote alone.  In Harris, that number is 1.5M.  If the current 100K vote/day trajectory continues we would easily reach that in 9 days.  However, there are 14 days until the election, so even if we decline to an average of 64K votes/day we'll still be on track.
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Non Swing Voter (FL Dems to 600k)
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« Reply #1777 on: October 18, 2020, 11:02:11 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

What's the most likely Clinton state to flip then?  Seems like Minnesota and Nevada are the only ones Trump is still competing in and there's been articles suggesting that the Trump campaign thinks it's over in Minnesota.

Possibly NH, or it could be MN, but we go through this every cycle with NV. Polls consistently overestimate Republicans in the state, and people are always shocked when it votes further left than expected, and then forget all about it two years later and keep overestimating Republicans in the state. It happened in 2012 (people thought it was more likely to flip than OH), 2016 (people thought Trump would win it while losing the election, and that the Senate race would go Republican while Democrats took the Senate) and 2018 (people thought it was more likely to go Republican than AZ-SEN, IN-SEN, and MO-SEN.

While Trump would have a “minuscule” chance here in a neutral year, there’s absolutely no way he wins while he’s down 5-6% in polling, when he’d probably need to be ahead by that much to win the state. Not to mention, population growth and registration chances in the state do not favor Republicans at all. It won’t vote as far left as VA, but I think it could vote left of ME.

I really think New Hampshire and Maine are going to vote for Biden by a much larger margin than this board thinks.  I do think Biden is a strong favorite in Nevada but there's a lot of uncertainty there with Las Vegas layoffs and stuff.  I think Biden is on pace to win New Hampshire and Maine by double digits.  He's a perfect fit for both states.  I just don't see Biden anywhere near those kinda margins in Nevada.
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Non Swing Voter (FL Dems to 600k)
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« Reply #1778 on: October 18, 2020, 11:03:47 AM »

I think we should have expected the Texas surge given what happened in 2018.  Beto did a real service by awakening the electorate there and showing people their vote mattered.  He's fundamentally changed national politics.
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Flabuckeye
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« Reply #1779 on: October 18, 2020, 11:04:06 AM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1780 on: October 18, 2020, 11:21:06 AM »

Just to do a quick back-of-the-envelope estimate, the most recent statewide poll of Texas (YouGov, 10/8, Trump +5) gives us the following numbers for early vote:

Biden voters:  85% vote early
Trump voters:  64% vote early

So we can assume that Trump voters will outnumber Biden voters 36-15, or about 70/30 split, on election day.  Meanwhile, Biden voters outnumber Trump voters 85-64, or 57/43 split, in the early vote.

Let's suppose that the election-day vote is the same as in 2016.  In 2016, there were 4.5M early votes cast, out of 8.5M total votes, so 4M votes total on election day.  In 2018, 4.8M were early, with 8.3M total, so 3.5M votes total on election day.

If there are 4M votes total on election day (2016 figure), and they're split 70/30 Trump/Biden, that gives Trump a 1.6M boost over Biden.  If that number is 3.5M (2018 figure), it's a 1.4M boost.  If you want to assume that we'll see lower early voting than either year due to COVID and a longer early-voting period, Trump loses 200,000 marginal votes for every 500,000 lost on election day, e.g. 3M = 1.2M Trump gain, 2.5M = 1M trump gain, etc.

Right now there's 3.88M early votes in the bank in Texas.  Let's assume the poll is accurate and those are a 57-43 split for Biden.  That gives Biden a 2.21M - 1.67M = 0.54M vote lead over Trump.  We can continue this forecasting similarly.  If the early vote reaches 5M, Biden has a 700K lead going into election day.  And he gains 140K for every extra million who vote.  So 6M = 840K, 7M = 980K, 8M = 1.12M.

With that in mind, assuming a 57/43 early vote split for Biden and a 70/30 early vote split for Trump, here is your table, with election day numbers on top and early vote numbers on the left.

*1.5M2M2.5M3M3.5M4M
4MTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
4.5MBidenTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
5MBidenTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
5.5MBidenTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
6MBidenBidenTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
6.5MBidenBidenTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
7MBidenBidenTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
7.5MBidenBidenBidenTrumpTrumpTrump
8MBidenBidenBidenTrumpTrumpTrump
8.5MBidenBidenBidenTrumpTrumpTrump
9MBidenBidenBidenBidenTrumpTrump
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2016
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« Reply #1781 on: October 18, 2020, 11:43:52 AM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1782 on: October 18, 2020, 11:46:31 AM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1783 on: October 18, 2020, 11:52:05 AM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

You could've stopped typing there. TargetSmart is garbage.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1784 on: October 18, 2020, 11:53:55 AM »

Democrats are already at 10%+ turnout in NV while Reps are only at 5%. Who in this thread was trying to spin this as good for Republicans right now?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1785 on: October 18, 2020, 11:57:28 AM »

Texas has temporarily surpassed Vermont as the leader with 43.2% of 2016's early vote numbers now in.

Harris County is now at ~600K early votes after 5 days, where 2016 took 8 days and 2012 13 days to reach that same figure.

Voting will be limited hours on Sunday and we can expect fewer ballots (Saturday only saw 75K in Harris compared to the 110K of Wed/Thu/Fri) and there will probably be a surge on Monday from people who didn't want to vote over the weekend, so Tuesday will be the next day we get a good estimate on the continuing trajectory.

What I would really be excited to see is 100% of 2016 turnout coming from early vote alone.  In Harris, that number is 1.5M.  If the current 100K vote/day trajectory continues we would easily reach that in 9 days.  However, there are 14 days until the election, so even if we decline to an average of 64K votes/day we'll still be on track.

Harris was roughly 1.3m in 2016, not 1.5m
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2016
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« Reply #1786 on: October 18, 2020, 12:05:12 PM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate
Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!
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Panda Express
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« Reply #1787 on: October 18, 2020, 12:07:09 PM »

In Colorado, Democrats are already at 21% of their total 2016 turnout, GOP at 9%. (Independents at 16%)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1788 on: October 18, 2020, 12:08:27 PM »

How is TargetSmart even modeling it when there is no party registration in TX's #s to begin with? I don't see how you could possibly even model that with no real prior info.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1789 on: October 18, 2020, 12:09:28 PM »

Oof, there’s gonna be quite a few “but Target Smart said” posts on Election Day, I think.
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« Reply #1790 on: October 18, 2020, 12:09:53 PM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

What's the most likely Clinton state to flip then?  Seems like Minnesota and Nevada are the only ones Trump is still competing in and there's been articles suggesting that the Trump campaign thinks it's over in Minnesota.

Possibly NH, or it could be MN, but we go through this every cycle with NV. Polls consistently overestimate Republicans in the state, and people are always shocked when it votes further left than expected, and then forget all about it two years later and keep overestimating Republicans in the state. It happened in 2012 (people thought it was more likely to flip than OH), 2016 (people thought Trump would win it while losing the election, and that the Senate race would go Republican while Democrats took the Senate) and 2018 (people thought it was more likely to go Republican than AZ-SEN, IN-SEN, and MO-SEN.

While Trump would have a “minuscule” chance here in a neutral year, there’s absolutely no way he wins while he’s down 5-6% in polling, when he’d probably need to be ahead by that much to win the state. Not to mention, population growth and registration chances in the state do not favor Republicans at all. It won’t vote as far left as VA, but I think it could vote left of ME.

I really think New Hampshire and Maine are going to vote for Biden by a much larger margin than this board thinks.  I do think Biden is a strong favorite in Nevada but there's a lot of uncertainty there with Las Vegas layoffs and stuff.  I think Biden is on pace to win New Hampshire and Maine by double digits.  He's a perfect fit for both states.  I just don't see Biden anywhere near those kinda margins in Nevada.

I’d say that layoffs will absolutely hurt Trump, and I think it’s NV which will go for Biden by double digits, assuming he does win the PV by high single-digits. He’ll easily win NH and ME as well in this kind of year, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a better “fit” for those states than NV, nor do I really think candidates being a “good/bad fit” for states is really a thing.

Either way, the only ones who think the EV so far in NV is good for Republicans are those with bad reading comprehension. The numbers in most states don’t tell us much yet, but NV is a state where it pays to pay attention to the EV, and the fact that Democrats already have almost the same lead in raw votes as they did by the end of early voting in 2016 is bad for Republicans no matter how you cut it.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1791 on: October 18, 2020, 12:11:43 PM »

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #1792 on: October 18, 2020, 12:12:04 PM »

Cotto/Gottfried
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In North Carolina, in-person early voting returns have eclipsed VBM ones by four points. Dems lead GOPers by a 23-point margin, with 1,243,340 ballots received. GOPers are slowly closing the gap, but this is pathetic all the same. GOPers will need an epic Election Day turnout.
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« Reply #1793 on: October 18, 2020, 12:15:28 PM »

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems
I look at county results. If Biden is crazy turnout in all urban/suburban Texas counties then thats bad news for republicans. Getting into the weeds about gender age or race can be misleading
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2016
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« Reply #1794 on: October 18, 2020, 12:36:09 PM »

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems
I look at county results. If Biden is crazy turnout in all urban/suburban Texas counties then thats bad news for republicans. Getting into the weeds about gender age or race can be misleading
Forget the Crazy Turnout. If Trump is at or above 50 % JA in Texas (which I expect he will) he is going to win the State.

I remember all the EV crap that was said in Texas in 2018.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1795 on: October 18, 2020, 12:37:07 PM »

We’re finally starting to get our ballots here in Washington. I’ll be sending my vote in tomorrow.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1796 on: October 18, 2020, 12:40:38 PM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate
Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.
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swf541
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« Reply #1797 on: October 18, 2020, 12:45:06 PM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate
Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1798 on: October 18, 2020, 12:46:14 PM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate
Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

TargetSmart tends to be off in both directions depending upon the circumstances; they're just bad, not partisan like Trafalgar polls.
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swf541
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« Reply #1799 on: October 18, 2020, 12:46:52 PM »

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate
Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

Target Smart isn't the end all be all.

According to TargetSmart Clinton was going to win Florida by 10%.......

TargetSmart tends to be off in both directions depending upon the circumstances; they're just wrong.

I'm aware im just giving an example and I remember that one the most
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