2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 166582 times)
republican1993
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« Reply #1750 on: October 18, 2020, 01:01:57 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1751 on: October 18, 2020, 01:03:27 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

Instead of whining about it, how about you go into the data and show us exactly how we're wrong. Otherwise, and I mean no offense, you're not really contributing anything here with posts like these.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1752 on: October 18, 2020, 01:03:41 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

I mean, would I be happy if the GOP weren’t turning out at all this election? Of course. But that blog post is  not as simple as Jessica is (I suspect willfully) misrepresenting it to be.
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republican1993
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« Reply #1753 on: October 18, 2020, 01:08:48 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

I mean, would I be happy if the GOP weren’t turning out at all this election? Of course. But that blog post is  not as simple as Jessica is (I suspect willfully) misrepresenting it to be.

i can say the same thing about the texas turnout as well... nobody knows what the hell is going to happen
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1754 on: October 18, 2020, 01:23:21 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

Instead of whining about it, how about you go into the data and show us exactly how we're wrong. Otherwise, and I mean no offense, you're not really contributing anything here with posts like these.
LOL there’s no amount of data digging or argumentation that would convince Atlas D hacks because they just don’t want to believe it. Don’t pretend that the reason you jump on any little thing am R posts is because he hasn’t ‘dug into the data enough’, that’s straight horse sh**t.

Frankly turnout reports are pretty worthless this election because no one knows what absentee cast in person turnout will be. They’re just all we have to go on so many posters here like to try to read the tea leaves. As long as people understand that it’s an inexact art at best and pure nonsense at worst, there’s no problem with that.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1755 on: October 18, 2020, 01:40:57 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 01:46:34 AM by Arch »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

Instead of whining about it, how about you go into the data and show us exactly how we're wrong. Otherwise, and I mean no offense, you're not really contributing anything here with posts like these.
LOL there’s no amount of data digging or argumentation that would convince Atlas D hacks because they just don’t want to believe it. Don’t pretend that the reason you jump on any little thing am R posts is because he hasn’t ‘dug into the data enough’, that’s straight horse sh**t.

Frankly turnout reports are pretty worthless this election because no one knows what absentee cast in person turnout will be. They’re just all we have to go on so many posters here like to try to read the tea leaves. As long as people understand that it’s an inexact art at best and pure nonsense at worst, there’s no problem with that.

Sure thing. You just proved my point. I'm not saying that they haven't dug into the data enough. I'm saying that they're not talking about it in any meaningful way at all and instead resort to defensive reeling or dismissals,  much like you in this post.

It is not predictive of final results, of course that's been said enough times here, but it can indicate enthusiasm and potential turnout differentials. But by all means, LOL away.
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republican1993
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« Reply #1756 on: October 18, 2020, 01:59:49 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

Instead of whining about it, how about you go into the data and show us exactly how we're wrong. Otherwise, and I mean no offense, you're not really contributing anything here with posts like these.
LOL there’s no amount of data digging or argumentation that would convince Atlas D hacks because they just don’t want to believe it. Don’t pretend that the reason you jump on any little thing am R posts is because he hasn’t ‘dug into the data enough’, that’s straight horse sh**t.

Frankly turnout reports are pretty worthless this election because no one knows what absentee cast in person turnout will be. They’re just all we have to go on so many posters here like to try to read the tea leaves. As long as people understand that it’s an inexact art at best and pure nonsense at worst, there’s no problem with that.

Sure thing. You just proved my point. I'm not saying that they haven't dug into the data enough. I'm saying that they're not talking about it in any meaningful way at all and instead resort to defensive reeling or dismissals,  much like you in this post.

It is not predictive of final results, of course that's been said enough times here, but it can indicate enthusiasm and potential turnout differentials. But by all means, LOL away.

Listen man as a Republican I’m happy with how Nevada is going right now and it isn’t this double digit lead all you people are thinking is going to happen. I am backing it up with facts with how the pundits are stating the turnout isn’t as strong as 2016, doesn’t mean republicans win the state but it’s a red flag for Dems to watch out for. Nobody knows who’s going to win since all the normal election things to look out for are thrown out the door so all ur data about high turnout... means republicans and democrats are turning out it’s not some big dem blow out boo.
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Horus
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« Reply #1757 on: October 18, 2020, 02:01:09 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

Instead of whining about it, how about you go into the data and show us exactly how we're wrong. Otherwise, and I mean no offense, you're not really contributing anything here with posts like these.
LOL there’s no amount of data digging or argumentation that would convince Atlas D hacks because they just don’t want to believe it. Don’t pretend that the reason you jump on any little thing am R posts is because he hasn’t ‘dug into the data enough’, that’s straight horse sh**t.

Frankly turnout reports are pretty worthless this election because no one knows what absentee cast in person turnout will be. They’re just all we have to go on so many posters here like to try to read the tea leaves. As long as people understand that it’s an inexact art at best and pure nonsense at worst, there’s no problem with that.

Sure thing. You just proved my point. I'm not saying that they haven't dug into the data enough. I'm saying that they're not talking about it in any meaningful way at all and instead resort to defensive reeling or dismissals,  much like you in this post.

It is not predictive of final results, of course that's been said enough times here, but it can indicate enthusiasm and potential turnout differentials. But by all means, LOL away.

Listen man as a Republican I’m happy with how Nevada is going right now and it isn’t this double digit lead all you people are thinking is going to happen. I am backing it up with facts with how the pundits are stating the turnout isn’t as strong as 2016, doesn’t mean republicans win the state but it’s a red flag for Dems to watch out for. Nobody knows who’s going to win since all the normal election things to look out for are thrown out the door so all ur data about high turnout... means republicans and democrats are turning out it’s not some big dem blow out boo.

I don't disagree that Nevada is the most likely Hillary state to flip Trump, but Ralston knows his stuff and Nevada is one of the only states where we can actually model a little bit from the EV. If Ralston is saying numbers are good for Dems, numbers are good for Dems.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1758 on: October 18, 2020, 02:03:20 AM »

Georgia: For the final update, 93,184 votes were cast on Saturday.

This includes 64,604 in-person votes and 28,580 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 783,426 in-person & 654,858 by mail, for a grand total of 1,438,284.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1759 on: October 18, 2020, 02:29:25 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.
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swf541
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« Reply #1760 on: October 18, 2020, 02:30:54 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1761 on: October 18, 2020, 02:40:30 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

What's the most likely Clinton state to flip then?  Seems like Minnesota and Nevada are the only ones Trump is still competing in and there's been articles suggesting that the Trump campaign thinks it's over in Minnesota.
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swf541
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« Reply #1762 on: October 18, 2020, 02:50:10 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

What's the most likely Clinton state to flip then?  Seems like Minnesota and Nevada are the only ones Trump is still competing in and there's been articles suggesting that the Trump campaign thinks it's over in Minnesota.

Yea Nevada is the likeliest but has a miniscule chance of flipping still.

But this is just bcs of the process of elimination not any inherent trump strength in nevada
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ExSky
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« Reply #1763 on: October 18, 2020, 03:29:50 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

I mean, would I be happy if the GOP weren’t turning out at all this election? Of course. But that blog post is  not as simple as Jessica is (I suspect willfully) misrepresenting it to be.

i can say the same thing about the texas turnout as well... nobody knows what the hell is going to happen

Then stop talking about it as if you know.
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n1240
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« Reply #1764 on: October 18, 2020, 04:11:40 AM »

NC 10/17, day 3 early in-person vote:

Dem 72506 (42.4%)
Rep 52366 (30.6%)
Una 46197 (27.0%)
Total 171042

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 363665 (44.0%)
Rep 244289 (29.6%)
Una 217699 (26.4%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 665013 (46.5%)
Rep 355632 (24.9%)
Una 408012 (28.6%)

Dem share is a bit stronger compared to yesterday and vote total about half of what it was yesterday (counties generally had polling places open 4-6 hours less compared to Thursday/Friday).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1765 on: October 18, 2020, 07:23:05 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

If someone cheers for an article that says the opposite of what they think it says, yes you can bet our pedantic asses will shut that down.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1766 on: October 18, 2020, 07:24:05 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

I mean, would I be happy if the GOP weren’t turning out at all this election? Of course. But that blog post is  not as simple as Jessica is (I suspect willfully) misrepresenting it to be.

i can say the same thing about the texas turnout as well... nobody knows what the hell is going to happen

She 👏 was 👏 the 👏 one 👏 drawing 👏 conclusions 👏
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1767 on: October 18, 2020, 08:27:50 AM »

If Kansas is close things like this will be a pain



This is Johnson Co. 
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1768 on: October 18, 2020, 09:01:11 AM »

Demographics of LA early vote after day 2

2020--62-34-4 (W-B-O)   2016--70-27-4

2020--52-32-15 (D-R-O)  2016--45-39-17

Not quite at half of the 2016 early vote.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1769 on: October 18, 2020, 09:10:14 AM »

If Kansas is close things like this will be a pain


This is Johnson Co. 

That’s why in Austria you can only vote early by bringing your absentee ballot with you to your polling station ...
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1770 on: October 18, 2020, 09:18:38 AM »

If Kansas is close things like this will be a pain



This is Johnson Co. 

If Kansas is close, the presidency is long gone and Democrats have at least 53 or 54 Senate seats.
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bilaps
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« Reply #1771 on: October 18, 2020, 09:35:28 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?
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indietraveler
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« Reply #1772 on: October 18, 2020, 09:52:56 AM »

So by the end of its first week of early voting it looks like TX could be within striking distance of 50% of 2016 turnout. I wasn't sure what to expect, but it definitely wasn't this.

Chances they exceed 2016 turnout by the end of early voting?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1773 on: October 18, 2020, 09:54:28 AM »

So by the end of its first week of early voting it looks like TX could be within striking distance of 50% of 2016 turnout. I wasn't sure what to expect, but it definitely wasn't this.

Chances they exceed 2016 turnout by the end of early voting?

Texas exceeding its 2016 vote with just early voting alone would be insane. I don't know if it will happen but I can see it getting close.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1774 on: October 18, 2020, 10:15:21 AM »

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

What's the most likely Clinton state to flip then?  Seems like Minnesota and Nevada are the only ones Trump is still competing in and there's been articles suggesting that the Trump campaign thinks it's over in Minnesota.

Possibly NH, or it could be MN, but we go through this every cycle with NV. Polls consistently overestimate Republicans in the state, and people are always shocked when it votes further left than expected, and then forget all about it two years later and keep overestimating Republicans in the state. It happened in 2012 (people thought it was more likely to flip than OH), 2016 (people thought Trump would win it while losing the election, and that the Senate race would go Republican while Democrats took the Senate) and 2018 (people thought it was more likely to go Republican than AZ-SEN, IN-SEN, and MO-SEN.

While Trump would have a “minuscule” chance here in a neutral year, there’s absolutely no way he wins while he’s down 5-6% in polling, when he’d probably need to be ahead by that much to win the state. Not to mention, population growth and registration chances in the state do not favor Republicans at all. It won’t vote as far left as VA, but I think it could vote left of ME.
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