CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Greedo punched first]

I really think Trump's lack of involvement in the campaign hurt the Republicans. If he had been more active in the campaign, white voters would have increased their turnout and the gains with Latino votes would have been maintained.

They would still lose, but by a more decent margin.

White voters in California voted for Biden. Even white men in California flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

Possibly within California itself, but probably not outside of it. Note that CA swung the opposite way of the US as a whole at the last two presidential elections (2016/2018).

Not sure how important this is.  It's mostly explained by the ginormous 3rd party numbers in 2016.  There was likely a large Romney->3rd Party->Trump vote in CA.

[Badger]

The CAGOP just turned Newsom into a national star.

 More to the point, I think it says volumes about the California GOP, and frankly probably about the national GOP, that when given options as reasonable conservatives like Faulconer, and at least a not crazy conservative like John Cox, they overwhelmingly choose an absolute batsh**t crazy far right extremist.

It's not to say the recall would have passed without a less toxic alternative than Larry elder, but it just speaks volumes as to what complete radicals have taken over the party.. Compare that to democrats who resoundingly chose a relative left of center progressive guy over Bernie Sanders, and people who want a both sides extremism in this country being each party's fault can Choke on a heavy bite of reality

[Gass3268]

There are approximately 209k VBM ballots left to count in Orange County. I think these ballots will favor 'Yes' overall, but by a much smaller margin than the in-person votes. We shall find out around 5:30 PDT

Weren't the "drop off/mail in the absentee ballot day of" group of people pretty R leaning in 2020?  I remember AZ and NC moved toward Trump with the latest-cast mail votes. 

2020 was the first time that the late VBM was more Republican than Democratic. Does that happen again now? My guess is yes. The next question is how much more Republican is the late VBM? In 2020 it only moved the state a few points to the right. It was noticeable because of how close so many of the House seats where.

[Matty]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1438127075634946053?s=20

[Tintrlvr]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

It's obviously cultural. Most Asian and Latino immigrants are second-generation or first-generation and will have a lot of influence from their countries of origin. Now compare countries in Asia to countries in Latin America on responses to COVID.

[Non Swing Voter]

It would be absolutely insulting to your supporters and your staff to drop out of a Virginia Governor race because of what happened in a state on the other side of the country that is around 21 points more Democratic

Let’s not get carried away lol

That’s like saying obama should have suspended campaign after 2012 Wisconsin recall

^ guy who predicted "No" wins by "10."

[Badger]

Man, I love California.  Sane voters.  Natural beauty.  Pulls its weight and then some in terms of the economy and paying taxes (unlike Texas and Florida).  Great politics.  Just a great state overall.  They really should have 10 senators given how much they contribute to this country.

 This time's ten. Screw Wyoming and the Dakotas

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1438127075634946053?s=20

Old Take

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1438127075634946053?s=20

GOP keeps trying to read positive tea leaves with respect to latinos.  It's getting utterly pathetic.  Even if they could argue that there is a slight long term trend toward the GOP among latinos (data does not suggest this) it's more than offset by their rising share of the electorate.  

Perhaps rather than looking for any sign of good demographic news in the data they should just stop nominating racist candidates.

[xavier110]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

This isn’t rocket science. When it comes to COVID shaping our political discourse, it’s all about education and openness to masks and vaccines. Asians are generally better educated and come from countries that have histories of addressing infectious diseases/contagious respiratory illnesses via mask wearing.

[Non Swing Voter]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

[Хahar 🤔]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

This isn’t rocket science. When it comes to COVID shaping our political discourse, it’s all about education and openness to masks and vaccines. Asians are generally better educated and come from countries that have histories of addressing infectious diseases/contagious respiratory illnesses via mask wearing.

Indeed, ever since SARS it has never been uncommon to see Chinese pedestrians in Cupertino wearing surgical masks.

[BigSerg]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1438127075634946053?s=20

GOP keeps trying to read positive tea leaves with respect to latinos.  It's getting utterly pathetic.  Even if they could argue that there is a slight long term trend toward the GOP among latinos (data does not suggest this) it's more than offset by their rising share of the electorate.  

Perhaps rather than looking for any sign of good demographic news in the data they should just stop nominating racist candidates.

So only you are allowed to read positive tea leaves? Why?

Whether you like it or not, Latinos as a voting group will be important and watching the way they trend, even if a small amount, is reasonable.

The fact that they seemed to grow more Republican during the Trump era is something of note.

It could be a blip. It could not.

[Matty]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

He’s just really passionate, but it does come off as a bit hateful and visceral

It’s unhealthy to be so angry.

And not sure why his avatar is libertarian. He’s not libertarian

[Xing]

This result doesn't tell us anything about 2022, obviously, but I have to laugh at the knee-jerk take on Atlas back when this looked somewhat competitive that it was evidence that California was becoming a swing state. That was one of the most hilariously absurd takes I've ever seen on this site, and that's saying a lot.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

Truth hurts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Twitter is dragging Kasie Hunt for her thread on this-

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1437976644615090177

Remarkable how none of this is even remotely based in the actual results of the election.

The ability of pundits to just. Make up narratives out of nothing is remarkable.

[It’s so Joever]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

I mean…is it really surprising? Remember we have those communal values mixed with the respect for order/authority culturally in a way unlike most other parts of the World. That has its own issues of course, but Covid is one where it is a net positive.

[MillennialModerate]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Stop.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1438204106330542084?s=21

[Person Man]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

Southerners as a group are the most unhealthy Americans in terms of comorbidities.  They're also not really masking up or getting vaccinated.  Almost like people who are irresponsible about masking/vax are also irresponsible with respect to their health in general...

You really seem to be having a breakdown, are you okay?

He’s just really passionate, but it does come off as a bit hateful and visceral

It’s unhealthy to be so angry.

And not sure why his avatar is libertarian. He’s not libertarian

I thought personal responsibility was part of libertarianism but I agree with you that he’s probably as libertarian as I am. Someone who is liberal with a “libertarian” streak but not neoliberal. Not really a “progressive” and doesn’t identify as a Social Democrat.

[Badger]

While I would have preferred "YES" on recall, I would have been horrified if Elder had been that replacement. 

I've gotta get my politics straightened out. 

<Maitre'd voice>

 Red avatar. Party of one, red avatar......

[Oryxslayer]

Present sum totals of recall data by locality - and district parts - within Orange County. See this for the guy who wanted to know about how their community voted.