CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Florida Man for Crime]

Let’s wait for all the votes to be in, but it looks like the polls were off again. They seem to have overestimated Recall (538 average: 57 No-42 Yes), which is a break from their pro-Democratic bias.

Possibly (hopefully) it might be evidence of a real and significant "Trump effect" - Trump turned out voters who would typically not vote Republican (and typically not vote at all). But with Trump not on the ballot, those voters don't turn out, and don't vote R.

If that hypothesis turns out to be correct, it would be a good thing for the Dems in 2022. Another test of this will come in the 2021 governor elections. If Dems do well in those, it will also point to there being a large difference between Trump being on the ballot and not.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So with nearly 95% of the vote in, Newsom is nearly exactly matching Biden's 29% margin of victory.

I don't think even the most optimistic projections for Dems saw this coming...

Where do you look? NyT shows just 67% of votes reported?

Yeah. Expected around 20-25% as Dems best-case-scenario.

[JGibson]

Newsom staying in office is a victory.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Let’s wait for all the votes to be in, but it looks like the polls were off again. They seem to have overestimated Recall (538 average: 57 No-42 Yes), which is a break from their pro-Democratic bias.

Possibly (hopefully) it might be evidence of a real and significant "Trump effect" - Trump turned out voters who would typically not vote Republican (and typically not vote at all). But with Trump not on the ballot, those voters don't turn out, and don't vote R.

If that hypothesis turns out to be correct, it would be a good thing for the Dems in 2022. Another test of this will come in the 2021 governor elections. If Dems do well in those, it will also point to there being a large difference between Trump being on the ballot and not.

There is already pretty solid evidence for that (Georgia senate runoffs).

[Panhandle Progressive]

I find it hilarious Newsom is winning Orange County w/ 75% of the vote in. All that money wasted to attempt recalling the gov and Republicans are currently losing OC. lol

Edit: the current top story on FoxNews.com reads "Calif. Gov Newsom declares victory, Larry Elder concedes as troubled state sticks with status quo" also lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Placer and Inyo Counties has flipped to Yes, ruining the contiguous map….

(Stanislaus also flipped)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

While I would have preferred "YES" on recall, I would have been horrified if Elder had been that replacement. 

I've gotta get my politics straightened out. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This has dividends for D's, it's momentum going into 2021/22

[wbrocks67]

Current results via CA SOS:

NO 5,840,283 (63.9%)
YES 3,297,145 (36.1%)

Looks like all E-Day votes are in, or nearly all of them, and Newsom still leads by 28%. Damn.

Remains to be seen how the rest of the mail ballots fall, if they are more R-leaning or D-leaning, but seems very likely he'll definitely stay above his 2018 margin.

[wbrocks67]

Also can this put to rest finally the idea that Trafalgar is some good pollster? They are literally trash and pull their #s out of nowhere.

[wbrocks67]

Twitter is dragging Kasie Hunt for her thread on this-

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1437976644615090177

[Holmes]

Would love to see a blank vs Elder map when all is said and done.

[Florida Man for Crime]

While I would have preferred "YES" on recall, I would have been horrified if Elder had been that replacement. 

I've gotta get my politics straightened out. 

You can still vote for Rs on the local level etc if you want, if you like their policies on things like municipal property taxes, garbage collection, dog catching, and the like. But...:

-snip-

You are observant, reflective, and make good points. You attempt to engage with reality and analyze the wider world on an intellectual level.

Which is why you are not a Republican.

I know it feels like a big step, but it is time to change your avatar to a different color. Doesn't have to be any particular one. Could be C. Could be L. Could be I. Could be D, or even S or G. But you are definitely no longer R. Not because you have changed, but because R has changed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Twitter is dragging Kasie Hunt for her thread on this-

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1437976644615090177

Somebody should tell her that CNN already has Cillizza for this kind of hot takes.

[Gass3268]

Current results via CA SOS:

NO 5,840,283 (63.9%)
YES 3,297,145 (36.1%)

Looks like all E-Day votes are in, or nearly all of them, and Newsom still leads by 28%. Damn.

Remains to be seen how the rest of the mail ballots fall, if they are more R-leaning or D-leaning, but seems very likely he'll definitely stay above his 2018 margin.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1438126221079072774?s=21

[Pollster]

Am now hearing from the same folks who made the comments re: McCarthy/Valadao/Nunes/Issa's districts that the results have so far exceeded even their most optimistic expectations. Some believe the initial exit polls of Latinos are off the mark, but don't say so confidently.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Would love to see a blank vs Elder map when all is said and done.

Earlier in the thread someone said BLANK got like 40 odd percent to Elders 20 odd so it’d just be a sweep probably

[Ferguson97]

While I would have preferred "YES" on recall, I would have been horrified if Elder had been that replacement. 

I've gotta get my politics straightened out. 

Join the dark side, become a D-TX avatar

[Gass3268]

Orange County map with early vote + election day.

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1438134042784763905?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if this was brought up, but Elder told his supporters to be "gracious in defeat": https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article254249308.html

It's something, I guess.

[riceowl]

So weird how Fox is barely talking about this today after it being Front Page News for weeks!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1438130898537435139

If you ever doubt that institutional sexism exist, remember that Chris Cillizza still has his job and Claire Malone lost hers.

[Matty]

So weird how Fox is barely talking about this today after it being Front Page News for weeks!

It was front page news when the polls were close but the media generally lost interest once the polling reverted back.

The silver lining is that it appears that the “yes” to recall is going to slightly overperform gop 2020 vote share in most house districts in the state

[Holmes]

So weird how Fox is barely talking about this today after it being Front Page News for weeks!

It was front page news when the polls were close but the media generally lost interest once the polling reverted back.

The silver lining is that it appears that the “yes” to recall is going to slightly overperform gop 2020 vote share in most house districts in the state

But it will also underperform the GOP’s 2018 vote.

[The Dowager Mod]

56,355 idiots voted for Jenner.