538 model & poll tracker thread

[Horus]

Trump is now down to 12.

[Crumpets]

Ohio is back to red on the snake chart but Georgia remains blue.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

Anything more than Biden + 7 and a D senate I'm happy with

[BaldEagle1991]

Trump is now down to 12.

RIP Trump's Presidency.

[Crumpets]

I loled

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1316745933892325377?s=19

[Dr. Arch]

I loled

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1316745933892325377?s=19

No, Nate, you just have to put more work into it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

Anything more than Biden + 7 and a D senate I'm happy with

+7 is probably just enough to close the door on Trump contesting the results on the grounds of mythical "vote by mail fraud." If Biden wins the tipping point by 5% and wins several more states by more that 1%, there are really no legal or propaganda avenues Trump has to fight the result.

My nightmare, apart from Trump winning outright, is one or two decisive states with a GOP legislature and a result close enough to challenge the mail-in ballots. Or even with Democratic governments. The kidnapping plot against Gov. Whitmer is evidence that there are a whole lot of domestic terrorists out there willing to take matters into their own hands and try and subvert the process.

To avoid this and have an election result that is beyond doubt, a 7% NPV margin is in my estimation the bare minimum. We need to run up the score.

[Gass3268]

Also, after tightening since like early July, Trump's net approval ratings having been getting worse since the first debate.

[emailking]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

Anything more than Biden + 7 and a D senate I'm happy with

Dems are more likely to lose seats than not lose seats in 2022 so you want as much cushion as possible so judges can still get appointed after the first 2 years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

Anything more than Biden + 7 and a D senate I'm happy with

Dems are more likely to lose seats than not lose seats in 2022 so you want as much cushion as possible so judges can still get appointed after the first 2 years.

Very true. The more of a cushion the better, but not getting my hopes up too much yet.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

Anything more than Biden + 7 and a D senate I'm happy with

Dems are more likely to lose seats than not lose seats in 2022 so you want as much cushion as possible so judges can still get appointed after the first 2 years.

Except they’ll presumably get an extra 4 seat cushion from DC and PR statehood.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't know about anyone else, but the number I'm watching is the "Biden wins in a landslide" probability. It's been as high as 37, now back to 36.

If we keep getting polls like this from now until election day, it may approach 50.

Anything more than Biden + 7 and a D senate I'm happy with

Dems are more likely to lose seats than not lose seats in 2022 so you want as much cushion as possible so judges can still get appointed after the first 2 years.

Except they’ll presumably get an extra 4 seat cushion from DC and PR statehood.

We'll have to see about that. The filibuster would prolly need to be removed to get DC passed at least, and I have a hard time seeing the filibuster going.

[emailking]

Filibuster has to go to pack the courts too.

[It’s so Joever]

Ohio is back to red on the snake chart but Georgia remains blue.

The SUNBELT STACK 2020

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden took the forecast lead in Georgia for the first time. He's got a 51% chance of winning

[Sorenroy]

Biden took the forecast lead in Georgia for the first time. He's got a 51% chance of winning

Biden has taken a narrow lead before, but the chart only shows the last update for each day, so those earlier leads have mostly gone. The same could be true of today. Either way, Biden did lead yesterday, as their 9:08 PM update put him at a 50.3% chance to win.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden took the forecast lead in Georgia for the first time. He's got a 51% chance of winning

Biden has taken a narrow lead before, but the chart only shows the last update for each day, so those earlier leads have mostly gone. The same could be true of today. Either way, Biden did lead yesterday, as their 9:08 PM update put him at a 50.3% chance to win.

My bad then. I just pulled up the forecast now and it showed them at 50/50 yesterday.

At the very least, first time Biden has led outside of 50/50 & taken the lead in the popular vote forecast. Still think that's worth noting

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ReedForecasts/status/1317804062730035201

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at the national tracker, what is interesting is that most polls still lie slightly above Biden's line and slightly below Trump's line, with the outliers mostly pulling the average inwards. It seems like the majority of polls show Biden around 54 or 55% while most show Trump closer to 40 or 41%. Not saying that Biden's lead is 15% in reality, but just an interesting observation, which continues to be true ever since the convention.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Still waiting for Biden to cross that 90% line and become "clearly favored."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

By my calculations, this is where Biden becomes "clearly favored."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If people haven’t realized this yet, you can see changes in the topline probabilities on the 538 frontpage by looking at the 18x22 matrix of dots.  Each dot is about a 0.25% chance of winning, and each full row is about a 4.5% chance.  So a change in 4 dots is a 1% change in probability..

Biden has 2 or 3 dots in the 3rd row for much of last week when the probability was 87-13.  When Biden had 5 dots in the third row yesterday the probability was 87-12, and it flipped to 88-12 today when he picked up the 6th dot in the 3rd row.

[redjohn]

By my calculations, this is where Biden becomes "clearly favored."

He'll keep rising a bit each day probably. I guess the reason we've barely seen movement in the past few days is we've received barely any polling.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

By my calculations, this is where Biden becomes "clearly favored."

He'll keep rising a bit each day probably. I guess the reason we've barely seen movement in the past few days is we've received barely any polling.

Biden is blowing out Trump in every national poll that gets released, so I'm guessing all it will take is a few good state polls to put him over the line.