538 model & poll tracker thread

[Ferguson97]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model but was in no rush to release it

He's gonna release it when Wonder Woman 1984 gets released in theaters.

Right after GRRM releases The Winds of Winter

[BaldEagle1991]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model but was in no rush to release it

He's gonna release it when Wonder Woman 1984 gets released in theaters.

Right after GRRM releases The Winds of Winter

By then we'd probably would have gone through 3 Presidential elections.

[wbrocks67]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model and implied he was in no rush to release it

like what??? he HAS to be worried about how it's going to be received. "no rush to release it" yet we're going to be approaching two months later than 2016?

[BlueSwan]

This is starting to become a bit of a joke, really. If Silver doesn't think his model is important enough to release a few months before the election, then why even release it at all.

Honestly, this should have been out for at least a month already, we have been getting plenty of polls for a long time now.

[wbrocks67]

This is starting to become a bit of a joke, really. If Silver doesn't think his model is important enough to release a few months before the election, then why even release it at all.

Honestly, this should have been out for at least a month already, we have been getting plenty of polls for a long time now.

yeah, the "it's finished but i'm in no rush" thing truly has me gobsmacked. like what?? lmao.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is starting to become a bit of a joke, really. If Silver doesn't think his model is important enough to release a few months before the election, then why even release it at all.

Honestly, this should have been out for at least a month already, we have been getting plenty of polls for a long time now.

yeah, the "it's finished but i'm in no rush" thing truly has me gobsmacked. like what?? lmao.

Maybe he's worried it's too bullish on Biden? I just can't see how a fair statistical model that accounts for many factors can give Trump over a 1/4 chance of winning, although the general public seems to think the election is more of a tossup, so he's worried for being hammered. It could also be him trying to adjust the senate forecast; senate forecasts tend to be harder to code because there are unique circumstances in every race that are hard to account for in a purely statistical manner.

[BlueSwan]

This is starting to become a bit of a joke, really. If Silver doesn't think his model is important enough to release a few months before the election, then why even release it at all.

Honestly, this should have been out for at least a month already, we have been getting plenty of polls for a long time now.

yeah, the "it's finished but i'm in no rush" thing truly has me gobsmacked. like what?? lmao.

Maybe he's worried it's too bullish on Biden? I just can't see how a fair statistical model that accounts for many factors can give Trump over a 1/4 chance of winning, although the general public seems to think the election is more of a tossup, so he's worried for being hammered. It could also be him trying to adjust the senate forecast; senate forecasts tend to be harder to code because there are unique circumstances in every race that are hard to account for in a purely statistical manner.

I tend to think that you are on to something.

[BlueSwan]

So, do we think Silver finally puts out the model this week?

[wbrocks67]

Maybe he's going to release the Prez, Senate, and House model all at once? Didn't he release them separately in 2016? (at least Prez and then Senate/House later?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe he's going to release the Prez, Senate, and House model all at once? Didn't he release them separately in 2016? (at least Prez and then Senate/House later?)

Yes, they were separate in 2016.

[Figueira]

Maybe he's going to release the Prez, Senate, and House model all at once? Didn't he release them separately in 2016? (at least Prez and then Senate/House later?)

There wasn't a House model in 2016 IIRC. The first House model was in 2018 since that was the focus of everyone's attention that cycle.

[Skye]

It seems the model is taking longer than expected, but all the doom talk in this thread is frankly ridiculous. The conventions haven't even happened. The model doesn't need to be up this early. But I hope it's released soon.

[JRP1994]

Can't release the model, but gotta tweet those s***y COVID-takes every afternoon like clockwork

[catographer]

What do we think of the Economist’s model? I like it a lot, especially cuz it uses state polls where it can. It has the most realistic results I’ve seen.

[pppolitics]

Can't release the model, but gotta tweet those s***y COVID-takes every afternoon like clockwork

The model probably said that Biden has a ~90% chance of winning and that's probably why he doesn't want to release it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model but was in no rush to release it

He's gonna release it when Wonder Woman 1984 gets released in theaters.

Right after GRRM releases The Winds of Winter

Will that be before or after we finally get 'Half-Life 3?"

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do we think of the Economist’s model? I like it a lot, especially cuz it uses state polls where it can. It has the most realistic results I’ve seen.

I like it, and am also impressed that Morris has published the source code on Github and encourages others to play with it and provide feedback and suggestions for improvement.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly, the delayed release of the model is a blessing in disguise in some ways. It forces people to have more independent takes instead of always resorting to the model. It also encouraged me to make a model of my own which gave me valuable skills in Excel and taught me a lot about how the math I learned in school is actually applicable.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/galendruke/status/1292940631137034242

Okay so who's gonna listen to the whole thing lol

[The Other Castro]

Release date: Wednesday morning

[wbrocks67]

Release date: Wednesday morning

TY. doing the lords work.

love how Biden just had a +10 poll in NC and he's still at +2.5 in the average

[ProgressiveModerate]

Release date: Wednesday morning

Ah thank you! JHK, the Economists, and my model will have to do until then

[ugabug]

So for everyone waiting for the 538 model, Nate announced on the 538 podcast that it should be released wednesday morning.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-veepstakes-are-almost-over/

It's right at the beginning so you shouldn't have to listen to long to come upon it.

[Crumpets]

Feeling like a Millerite on October 20th, 1844.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Here's the likely link to the forecast