538 model & poll tracker thread

[iammucow]

Nate Silver, regression-based estimate tweet (Talk Elections won't let me include links until I post more)

They only have Biden up 76% in DC? Are they expecting Trump to triple his vote share from last election?

[Former President tack50]

Nate Silver, regression-based estimate tweet (Talk Elections won't let me include links until I post more)

They only have Biden up 76% in DC? Are they expecting Trump to triple his vote share from last election?

Well the Trump campaign is running ads in DC so I think they expect DC to be competitive

[emailking]

Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.

Nor should he rush it. He doesn't have an obligation to release one at all

I mean, he does though? He runs a politics website that relies on advertising dollars, especially after it was bought by ABC. They need clicks and views and the forecast is a huge part of the website every 4 years.

He doesn't have an obligation to us. We didn't pay him. Don't go to his site if you don't want to. What obligations he has to people he's actually signed contracts with, I don't know. But there's a ton of content on the site, and I doubt he ever guaranteed anyone that he would have a formal model of the 2020 election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe it'll be released tomorrow; the first of August

[Gass3268]

Maybe it'll be released tomorrow; the first of August

If it gets released over the weekend it would be on Sunday during This Week With George Stephanopoulos on ABC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nate Silver didn't post much on twitter today; maybe he's busy finalize it

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe it'll be released tomorrow; the first of August

If it gets released over the weekend it would be on Sunday during This Week With George Stephanopoulos on ABC.

Welp that didn't happen. However, they're clearly very close to releasing it, they added some more stuff in "Local Storage" upon inspecting the web page, however don't know what to make sense of what was added; it's mostly random numbers and lists of states. Could be "'fake data" for test, because I wasn't able too correlate the numbers with anything

[wbrocks67]

i've just given up at this point lol

[G_Master]

In all seriousness...what in fresh hell is taking him so long?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Silver doesn't want to be wrong that what taking him so long.

[wbrocks67]

Silver doesn't want to be wrong that what taking him so long.

tbh... this.

[Crumpets]

Nate on his podcast released a few hours ago said he's 98.7% done, but there will be a bit of a delay of when it is released and that he is not rushing anymore to release it.

Nor should he rush it. He doesn't have an obligation to release one at all

I mean, he does though? He runs a politics website that relies on advertising dollars, especially after it was bought by ABC. They need clicks and views and the forecast is a huge part of the website every 4 years.

He doesn't have an obligation to us. We didn't pay him. Don't go to his site if you don't want to. What obligations he has to people he's actually signed contracts with, I don't know. But there's a ton of content on the site, and I doubt he ever guaranteed anyone that he would have a formal model of the 2020 election.

I'd love to see the headline "Target pulls sponsorship of 538 citing Nate Silver broken pledge to release 2020 forecast in timely manner."

[Andrew]

Silver doesn't want to be wrong that what taking him so long.

He has a model that estimates the probability of each candidate winning.  How can he be wrong?  I guess he could put one candidate at 100.0% and then have that candidate lose, but that’s really the only way—and he’s obviously not going to do that.

I’d say that the so-called delay is really just impatience by people wanting to see it.  He probably doesn’t have any kind of deadline beyond planning to release it when it’s ready to go.

[wbrocks67]

Silver doesn't want to be wrong that what taking him so long.

He has a model that estimates the probability of each candidate winning.  How can he be wrong?  I guess he could put one candidate at 100.0% and then have that candidate lose, but that’s really the only way—and he’s obviously not going to do that.

I’d say that the so-called delay is really just impatience by people wanting to see it.  He probably doesn’t have any kind of deadline beyond planning to release it when it’s ready to go.

The 2016 version was released in *June*. There's gotta be a reason.

[Andrew]

That one was ready in June.  This one is probably not ready yet.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm so glad my enjoyment of following this election isn't predicated on whether or not a forecast model comes out

[GeorgiaModerate]

What we need is a model to predict the release date of the 538 model.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

i've just given up at this point lol

Me too, I have moved to JHK and predictit.

[GeorgiaModerate]

i've just given up at this point lol

Me too, I have moved to JHK and predictit.

Try The Economist's model too.  It's good. 

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[wbrocks67]

At this point I just want it b/c I want a better aggregate for senate polls too, since RCP doesn't include even half the ones 538 does.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point I just want it b/c I want a better aggregate for senate polls too, since RCP doesn't include even half the ones 538 does.

I made an aggregate of polls for the senate using 538 polling page to collect polls for my model:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1odwJDvqAY3UXreN8XY4Hmql9cJG5r7MCiPCTwzrAVA0/edit?usp=sharing

Not sure if these are what you're looking for, but feel free to use them

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1291462510332256262?s=20

Seems like they've completed the model, and based on the tweets from last week the graphics are at the very least almost done. Can't see why it's taking them so long

[BaldEagle1991]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1291462510332256262?s=20

Seems like they've completed the model, and based on the tweets from last week the graphics are at the very least almost done. Can't see why it's taking them so long

There is no model, they're just messing with us.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model and implied he was in no rush to release it

[BaldEagle1991]

Nate did say on his last podcast he was done with the model but was in no rush to release it

He's gonna release it when Wonder Woman 1984 gets released in theaters.