2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1493665853266710530?cxt=HHwWhMC-0cDLyLopAAAA
MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

Flashback to when MN-01 and MN-08 were better for Dems than MN-02 and MN-03.

Flashback to when MN-07 had a better history of electing Democrats over the past three decades than MN-03.

[lfromnj]

Also just yuck at Duluth and Washington county. I guess it sorta happens with a least change but no thanks.

[Nyvin]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

It definetely moved left in 2020. However this may merely have been a bounceback from 2016. The district is still a few points more Republican than it was in 2012.

[Gass3268]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

Doesn't help that the most Democrat parts of Anoka are in the 4th and the 5th.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So anyone got links to the state legislative maps?

This is boring but also about what I expected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

It definetely moved left in 2020. However this may merely have been a bounceback from 2016. The district is still a few points more Republican than it was in 2012.

St. Cloud isn't really significantly moving in either direction. That State Senate seat has always been a notable swing district. As for the 2016->2020 trend that happened in college towns everywhere in Minnesota. College student turnout was horrendous in 2016. I remember you now thinking that Blue Earth and Winona Counties were now "Lean R" based on that, LOL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1493665853266710530?cxt=HHwWhMC-0cDLyLopAAAA

MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

Flashback to when MN-01 and MN-08 were better for Dems than MN-02 and MN-03.

Those were the days...

[Nyvin]

So anyone got links to the state legislative maps?

This is boring but also about what I expected.

House
https://davesredistricting.org/join/67a3209f-3d4b-448f-86f0-18711d703553

Senate
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a0e056df-ee6f-41fd-b1fb-ff62de298ffd

[lfromnj]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

It definetely moved left in 2020. However this may merely have been a bounceback from 2016. The district is still a few points more Republican than it was in 2012.

St. Cloud isn't really significantly moving in either direction. That State Senate seat has always been a notable swing district. As for the 2016->2020 trend that happened in college towns everywhere in Minnesota. College student turnout was horrendous in 2016. I remember you now thinking that Blue Earth and Winona Counties were now "Lean R" based on that, LOL.

Yeah I wasn't really saying the seat was moving right, I was just saying people should look a bit deeper into the district as a whole. I made a similar point with CO-08 when they were drawing it back then as a lot of people obviously saw the 7 point leftwards shift from 2016 > 2020 but didn't notice the fact that it actually had a rightwards swing from 2012 at least. I don't know where these sort of districts will end up in the end but I wouldn't bet on any strong Democratic trends in any of these districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like they really changed how my State House district is oriented, it's now more of an east/west than north/south split. I'm in the same number though.

Also I'm in the single most Democratic seat in the state and the only one Biden topped 90% in, yes YES YES!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That State Senate map actually looks like a mild D gerrymander, albeit more in how they paired the districts than drew the maps. They REALLY f[inks]ed over Hennepin County Republicans.

Also what's basically a successor to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat actually voted for Biden! Just 49.22-48.54 though. Karin Housley also got put in a Biden district, even if just 50.08-47.46. But she probably lost it in 2018.

[lfromnj]

That State Senate map actually looks like a mild D gerrymander, albeit more in how they paired the districts than drew the maps. They REALLY f[inks]ed over Hennepin County Republicans.

Also what's basically a successor to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat actually voted for Biden! Just 49.22-48.54 though. Karin Housley also got put in a Biden district, even if just 50.08-47.46. But she probably lost it in 2018.

Any predictions on what the independent Iron Rangers do? All the senate seats voted for Trump in the NE other than the Duluth one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That State Senate map actually looks like a mild D gerrymander, albeit more in how they paired the districts than drew the maps. They REALLY f[inks]ed over Hennepin County Republicans.

Also what's basically a successor to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat actually voted for Biden! Just 49.22-48.54 though. Karin Housley also got put in a Biden district, even if just 50.08-47.46. But she probably lost it in 2018.

Any predictions on what the independent Iron Rangers do? All the senate seats voted for Trump in the NE other than the Duluth one.

They're just political opportunists so if the DFL wins the majority they probably come back. Bakk had such a personal vote he'd be fine in that barely Trump district though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1493687983270154241

[lfromnj]

That State Senate map actually looks like a mild D gerrymander, albeit more in how they paired the districts than drew the maps. They REALLY f[inks]ed over Hennepin County Republicans.

Also what's basically a successor to Michele Bachmann's old State Senate seat actually voted for Biden! Just 49.22-48.54 though. Karin Housley also got put in a Biden district, even if just 50.08-47.46. But she probably lost it in 2018.

Any predictions on what the independent Iron Rangers do? All the senate seats voted for Trump in the NE other than the Duluth one.

They're just political opportunists so if the DFL wins the majority they probably come back. Bakk had such a personal vote he'd be fine in that barely Trump district though.

It's definitely some what opportunism but Its also regionalism. As far as I understand the DFL generally had a tradition of the state house would have a metro leader while the state senate would have an outstate leader.  By 2020 it was too skewed and they were too isolated.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

It definetely moved left in 2020. However this may merely have been a bounceback from 2016. The district is still a few points more Republican than it was in 2012.

Ye very unlikely, and it's unclear how blue of bubble Minneapolis will be. MN-03 kinda takes in most of the true suburbs from MN-8 so my guess is if it does become competitive. it'll kinda have to be like a Dallas County IA scenario where the suburbs develop very fast. That whole corridor between Minneapolis and St. Cloud seems to yield a lot of potential, but potential is just that, something that could happen but may not or even probably won't.

If the blue bubble and suburbs extends beyond Hennepin County, I guarantee you it will become competative.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

[Torie]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

How is that defined mathematically here?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

How is that defined mathematically here?

You add up the 4th and the 5th districts ordered by margins and divide by 2, like how you calculate any other median with an even number of objects.

[Torie]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

How is that defined mathematically here?

You add up the 4th and the 5th districts ordered by margins and divide by 2, like how you calculate any other median with an even number of objects.

Thank you.  I am not sure that is very meaningful where the gap is large in the two data points that are summed.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looking at the legislative maps, Biden won 36/67 senate seats (53.7%) and 77/134 house seats (57.5%).

Median senate seat is Biden +2.62%. Median house seat is Biden +4.36%. Biden won the state 7.12% so a pretty good sized bias toward Republicans. I'm not saying the map is unfair or gerrymandered just that Minnesota Democrats really self pack in the metro core. The most Republican house seat is Trump 76.3, there are 15 seats with a higher Biden percentage than that.

[Minnesota Mike]

Any predictions on what the independent Iron Rangers do? All the senate seats voted for Trump in the NE other than the Duluth one.

Tomassoni has announced his retirement. No surprise since he is fighting ALS. His district will be interesting, ancestrally Democratic (Walz+11 in 2018), but Trump +9 in 2020.  Candidates will make a huge difference here.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/824638e2-fb9a-4287-a2e3-c0d77c02567b

If I could change it, probably something like this, have mn06 take northern Washington so MN08 takes more of MN07 which takes part of MN01 which takes MN02 which finally takes parts of Carver from MN02. Overall no significant partisanship changes. MN01 stays the same while MN02 becomes Biden +10 . Overall improvement to both COI in my opinion and improvement to paritsan fairness in making median seat a Biden district.

How is that defined mathematically here?

You add up the 4th and the 5th districts ordered by margins and divide by 2, like how you calculate any other median with an even number of objects.

Thank you.  I am not sure that is very meaningful where the gap is large in the two data points that are summed.

It isn't meaningful, as obviously the 1st and 2nd are quite different districts and I did not change the map because of any partisan reasons, I merely suggest a change to it to improve COI's which coincidentally slightly benefitted Democrats.

[lfromnj]

By the way how college educated is Duluth anyway? Unlike the rest of the iron range counties other than Cook which is tourism it is actually more D than it has been in any presidential election I can see for a while. If you exclude Duluth and Cook County Trump actually slightly improved his margin in the rest of the iron range but the swing in Duluth/Cook was enough to swing the iron range left overall.