2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota  (Read 39604 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
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« on: May 20, 2020, 09:19:14 AM »

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.
What do you propose? Splitting Mineapolis?

Anoka + Hennepin is almost exactly two districts,  why not use that instead of all the other county splits?
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2020, 05:34:23 PM »

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.
[/b]

.....



Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

I thought it was basically a lock to become one in 2020, or do I have that off?

Definitely off. Like lfromnj said, median is Trump +3.2 and the state is trending rightwards

I mean, sure on paper it looks really competitive, but if 2020 in the State Senate is anything like 2018 in the State House then it's not hard to see a Dem majority (MN has 2 house district per senate district).

There's only 3 D-Held seats in heavily Republican areas, and all three have dem incumbents running for re-election.   Democratic State House reps won in similar districts in 2018.

If the Generic Congressional Ballot (best we have to go on right now...) is any indicator I'd say chances are pretty good at a Dem majority.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2020, 07:36:14 PM »

Making 3 safe D districts isn't hard at all, you don't even need to split Minneapolis.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a93959-37d8-42b3-8879-608ed66e6d91








The MN-2 in this would even be trending D.    I'd honestly be shocked if MN Dems didn't demand 3 safe districts in the 2020 map,  they certainly have the leverage and it's easily obtainable.  Clinton won the yellow district 52.2% to 38.9%.

I assume the three rural districts will need to have Rochester, St Cloud, and Duluth in them as urban anchors,  so putting Rochester in with MN-2 seems out of the question, although that would make a better Dem seat slightly.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2020, 04:16:26 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2020, 05:02:48 PM by Nyvin »

Thankfully the Democrats control the Minnesota State Supreme Court. Won't be a gerrymander, but hopefully a favorable map that keeps Minneapolis and St. Paul separate.

Minneapolis and St Paul being separate doesn't really matter anymore for partisan balance.   It basically means MN-5 swings east instead of North.    

Both directions are heavy Dem,  doesn't seem to benefit Republicans to have the cities together.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2020, 12:34:30 PM »

This is probably as "plain" of a map that MN would find acceptable, as long as Omar doesn't mind losing some inner ring suburbs.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed56d09d-cd12-49b1-9c08-58160bc1511d





Easiest pairing in the Twin Cities is 2 districts between Anoka + Hennepin,  1 between Ramsey + Washington, and Dakota going south or west for the rest of the fourth district.   
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2021, 11:36:34 AM »

There's no reason the 5-2 DFL majority on the MN Supreme Court should refrain from imposing a gerrymander at this point. 100% of the state GOP delegation signed onto a judicial coup, and this is the result. They simply can't be trusted, and every effort should be made to minimize their Congressional influence.

There's also no reason for Wright to be put in with the Dakota district.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2021, 04:37:11 PM »

Yeah, folks without Minnesota ties do like putting the Cities together, but that would never, ever happen (and I appreciate you acknowledging that it wouldn't!) unless Republicans got a trifecta and really felt like flexing their muscles. Keeping Minneapolis and St. Paul separate is sacrosanct.
Why do you want to crack the Hmong population?

It's not exactly "cracking" if they've literally never been together in the same district ever in history.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2021, 08:28:17 PM »

Hmong population in the twin cities is estimated at about 60,000, which is about 8% of a single congressional district’s population. I don’t think that their ability to elect the candidate of their choice would stand up as a rationale in court.
Who said it was a legal requirement?

Why should suburbs be placed in inner city dominated districts?

The argument made against a Twin Cities districts is "we don't like it" and we remember when Minneapolis had its own district.

But then you are conflict with the reality that you are chopping up suburbs to a greater extent to keep Minneapolis and St.Paul apart.


What's gained by crossing county borders needlessly to put them together?  Are people in inner cities sub-human or something?
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2021, 12:03:25 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2021, 12:07:43 AM by Nyvin »

Hmong population in the twin cities is estimated at about 60,000, which is about 8% of a single congressional district’s population. I don’t think that their ability to elect the candidate of their choice would stand up as a rationale in court.
Who said it was a legal requirement?

Why should suburbs be placed in inner city dominated districts?

The argument made against a Twin Cities districts is "we don't like it" and we remember when Minneapolis had its own district.

But then you are conflict with the reality that you are chopping up suburbs to a greater extent to keep Minneapolis and St.Paul apart.


What's gained by crossing county borders needlessly to put them together?  Are people in inner cities sub-human or something?
Hennepin must be split. Are you aware of that?

Ramsey does not.   Hennepin is much better paired with Anoka, which it almost perfectly forms two districts worth of population.

I really don't know why you always post smug comments like this.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2021, 11:38:42 PM »

The MN high court in the 2010 cycle was not partisan when it came to drawing the CD's, and I have no reason to believe that they would be this time. But my guess is that both parties will agree on a map, in part because, as in so many other places, the evolution of MN politics, and where, is unusually uncertain. The map will have 3 Pub CD's, 3 Dem CD's, and one swing CD that will favor the Dems (e.g., Trump 2020 actually lost a CD that would combine Wright, Carver, Scott and Dakota counties by a few thousand votes), if the Pub Party continues to embrace a politics that is off putting to better educated suburban voters.

I do — the Capitol insurrection. Which was inspired by all four of the MN GOP Congressional representatives, who signed onto the TX AG's lawsuit. Punishing insurrectionists isn't partisan, it's the duty of any liberal democrat.

Yeah, the MNSC "should" be partisan in favor of the Democrats because the Republican Party in this country has legitimately gone insane.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2021, 10:50:09 AM »

These are my final maps. I think the split of Wright worked particularly well.





MN-1 (South) 0.996
MN-2 (Dakota-Scott-Carver) 0.992 Also includes the southern of Washington similar to the current map; and Eden Prairie and the tiny bit of Chanhassen in Hennepin. This is to balance population. Eden Prairie is a good fit at the Carver-Scott junction, and with Chaska and Chanhassen.
MN-3 (Hennepin-Wright) 0.991 Buffalo is about at the limits of commuting range, as you would spend an 1-1/2 in a car each day to get to and from Minneapolis, and it would be a grind when the roads are snow-packed.
MN-4 (Anoka-Ramsey-Washington) 1.006 Excludes St. Paul and St.Anthony in Ramsey and the southern part of Washington
MN-5 (Twin Cities) 1.014 Brooklyn Park was too large, so I added Robbindale and Crystal instead. Both have an increasing black population which might be approaching 20%. St. Anthony (Hennepin and Ramsey parts) was added to avoid a quadruple split of Hennepin County.
MN-6 (Northeast) 0.998
MN-7 (West) 1.001

Surprisingly I'd be okay with this,  pairing Hennepin with Wright is better than Dakota with Wright at least.

No chance of it happening with St Paul and Minneapolis paired though.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2021, 02:54:10 PM »

Aside from what the final population numbers might be, this seems to be the most Dem friendly division of the Twin Cities metro pie. I am a bit surprised it has not been put up yet.  Huh



Now all that is needed is to reverse engineer the COI argument. Well that prong of Anoka used to be or should have been in Hennepin, it is right next door to Minneapolis, and taking in the rest of Anoka just fills out the missing population, and BRTD has relatives in Coon Rapids to boot. The fact that Jimrtex would hate it is proof positive, because there is 100% correlation between what he wants and what is wrong. When was the last time he was even in a place known as full of nice people? We know it is never because he does not like spending time with nice people. That is why he lives in Texas come to think of it.

Moderators, absolutely nothing in the above paragraph is true. I admit that now. So it cannot be infracted because I just denounced it. Thank you.

Kinda looks like the map I posted on page 3.   Only real difference is that I don't use Wright county at all and keep MN-2 with the southeastern counties similar to how it's setup right now.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2021, 09:25:26 PM »

I find it utterly hilarious how much of this thread is devoted to the idea of pairing Minneapolis and St Paul together...when that is never going to happen under any scenario.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2021, 09:59:23 PM »

Here's the districts I'd see Democrats winning more often than not after redistricting (Lean D or better in other words) -

14 of 15 in Hennepin
11 of 14 between Anoka, Ramsey, Washington
4 of 5 in Dakota
2 Iron Range
1 Rochester
1 Mankato
1 St Cloud

That's 34 seats, a bare majority.   The second Iron Range seat might be iffy in the future, and didn't include the Fargo seat.   There's seats in the Twin Cities that'll be competitive, and if Scott and Carver continue to trend D then Democrats might form a solid majority (1 seat a piece).
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2021, 10:38:45 AM »

Here's my Minnesota map. I don't really understand why the twin cities shouldn't go together but it's whatever I separated them anyways. I'm not sure about the 3rd and 4th but I was able to calculate how the rest voted in 2020 since county splits are minimal in my map.



MN-1: Biden+32
MN-2: Trump+12
MN-5: Biden+0.5
MN-6: Trump+25
MN-7: Trump+18

2012-2016 PVI
MN-1: D+12
MN-2: R+6
MN-3: D+24
MN-4: R+2
MN-5: R+5
MN-6: R+11
MN-7: R+6

It's not how I would arrange the districts, but this is a decent map.

Kinda splits up the St Cloud area a bit too much IMO.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2021, 05:19:23 PM »







https://davesredistricting.org/join/6154781b-9ee2-48fa-8909-94860fd619e0

Nice and clean, only four counties are split, and those are all micro splits except Hennepin.   MN-7 retains all it's original territory,  MN-2 does too except what was in Washington.

St Cloud Metro kept intact.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2021, 03:06:13 PM »

Soooooo, in light of the news that MN will unexpectedly keep its 8th seat, what do we expect will happen here? Presumably the lower-growth seats (01, 07, 08) will have to expand a bit and the higher-growth seats in the Twin Cities metro will have to grow?

Perhaps MN-02 sheds some of its more conservative areas to MN-01, locking in a 4-4 as opposed to possibility of a 5-3 result for either party. Seems like a fair outcome, very slightly D-favorable relative to the current state of affairs which feels appropriate given they control more of the state's government.

A 4-4 delegation seems 100% locked in now,  I can't see any other scenario happening at all.

MN-1 might be a bit less than Safe R though since it has to take in less rural territory.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2021, 07:11:23 PM »

It's kind of an open question on what happens to MN-1,  could be made somewhat, kinda competitive (but still R).







https://davesredistricting.org/join/f27e6b94-e78f-4726-bf94-4a5d9911d535

Obviously this doesn't really matter without the actual county data from the Census, but still interesting that MN-1 doesn't really have to be a safe R seat.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2021, 08:36:29 PM »

I think Minnesota loses a district.

Nope,  it keeps the eighth.   Results came out today.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2021, 05:19:46 PM »

This could be considered a slightly cleaned up least change map.  I could see the state supreme court drawing this.







https://davesredistricting.org/join/7f034fda-12ec-49ed-9860-f1d526237634

No municipality splits other than the ones that cross counties.   No major changes from the existing map really.   

Don't see why MN-2 needs Goodhue, Rice, and Wabasha when it can get all the population it needs from Washington pretty easily.  Also this gets rid of that ugly western tail of MN-1.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2021, 06:04:13 PM »

Quote
No municipality splits other than the ones that cross counties.   No major changes from the existing map really.   

Don't see why MN-2 needs Goodhue, Rice, and Wabasha when it can get all the population it needs from Washington pretty easily.  Also this gets rid of that ugly western tail of MN-1.

But you push the MN-04 (St Paul) into the exurbs.

That can be fixed easily, but it requires a muni split in Anoka.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #21 on: September 07, 2021, 10:06:19 PM »

League of Women Voters submitted a map to the Special Redistricting Panel appointed in advance by MN State Supreme Court.

https://www.lwvmn.org/league-news/2021/9/3/wattson-plaintiffs-release-proposed-minnesota-congressional-district-plan



Looks like a pretty bland least change map mostly.  I don't like how Carver is split with three districts.

Craig would lose Northfield, giving it to MN-1.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #22 on: November 19, 2021, 05:54:31 PM »



State Senate -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55999e5e-5536-4923-bcab-0d404427e277

State House -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/99956a7e-14f7-4469-997b-3c485281a37f
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #23 on: November 19, 2021, 06:24:31 PM »



State Senate -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55999e5e-5536-4923-bcab-0d404427e277

State House -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/99956a7e-14f7-4469-997b-3c485281a37f

Thanks for putting them on DRA. I really should learn how to do that myself but I'm an old fart who never learned a lot of this computer stuff Smiley

It's actually really easy if you have the shapefile in a zip folder,  load the blank respective map you need (Minnesota State Senate for example) go to the gear icon in the top right, scroll to the bottom where it says "color map from file" and hit browse and select the shapefile zip folder, then wait for it to process.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2021, 10:57:40 AM »

Strange that they actually removed Northfield from Craig's district. Trying to make the 1st competitive again?

Yeah, I was thinking they're angling for MN-1 to be a target later in the decade.
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