COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1278349068817833984

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1278349068817833984

I think this might be the highest number of per capita new cases that any state has ever reported.

Edit: For reference, this would be the equivalent of 220,000 new cases if scaled up to the US population.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1278349068817833984

I think this might be the highest number of per capita new cases that any state has ever reported.

Edit: For reference, this would be the equivalent of 220,000 new cases if scaled up to the US population.

We're screwed. They've literally had to implement Death Panels because the hospitals are overrun.  There is blood on our idiot Governor's hands.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2020/06/30/crisis-care-standards-arizona-code-coronavirus-death-panels/3285410001/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

And Independence Day is right around the corner.

Arizonans, PLEASE PLEASE take this seriously. 

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1278349068817833984

I think this might be the highest number of per capita new cases that any state has ever reported.

Edit: For reference, this would be the equivalent of 220,000 new cases if scaled up to the US population.

We're screwed. They've literally had to implement Death Panels because the hospitals are overrun.  There is blood on our idiot Governor's hands.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2020/06/30/crisis-care-standards-arizona-code-coronavirus-death-panels/3285410001/

This November's election and the election two years from that one will be more of a self-appraisal of the lives of those who participate in it.

[It’s so Joever]

Now do you people see why I called this a genocide early on?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1278349068817833984

I think this might be the highest number of per capita new cases that any state has ever reported.

Edit: For reference, this would be the equivalent of 220,000 new cases if scaled up to the US population.

Yikes

[Mr. Reactionary]

And Independence Day is right around the corner.

Arizonans, PLEASE PLEASE take this seriously. 

They probably won't. The optics of basically demanding everyone go outside and celebrate slave emancipation day and mere weeks later declaring the 4th of july not important enough to celebrate (as Dems prematurely tweet its a racist holiday before hastily deleting that) are so apparently partisan and racialist that a lot of people aren't going to stand for being told to go inside. Im going to a cookout at my grandpa's since hes getting home hospice care now and i haven't seen him since pre-lockdown.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1278405761077477376

[GP270watch]

 All pandemics eventually tail off but imagine being the President of the most powerful country on Earth and that being your game-plan.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

And Independence Day is right around the corner.

Arizonans, PLEASE PLEASE take this seriously. 

They probably won't. The optics of basically demanding everyone go outside and celebrate slave emancipation day and mere weeks later declaring the 4th of july not important enough to celebrate (as Dems prematurely tweet its a racist holiday before hastily deleting that) are so apparently partisan and racialist that a lot of people aren't going to stand for being told to go inside. Im going to a cookout at my grandpa's since hes getting home hospice care now and i haven't seen him since pre-lockdown.

Taking things seriously doesn't mean staying indoors -- it's not an all-or-nothing kinda thing.  It just means just being mindful of physical contact and distances. 

[GP270watch]

And Independence Day is right around the corner.

Arizonans, PLEASE PLEASE take this seriously. 

They probably won't. The optics of basically demanding everyone go outside and celebrate slave emancipation day and mere weeks later declaring the 4th of july not important enough to celebrate (as Dems prematurely tweet its a racist holiday before hastily deleting that) are so apparently partisan and racialist that a lot of people aren't going to stand for being told to go inside. Im going to a cookout at my grandpa's since hes getting home hospice care now and i haven't seen him since pre-lockdown.

Taking things seriously doesn't mean staying indoors -- it's not an all-or-nothing kinda thing.  It just means just being mindful of physical contact and distances. 

 It's good for you to walk or bike outside and get sunshine. Just keep away from people, don't touch anything, and don't overdo it.

 In my area I've never seen so many of my neighbors biking and walking with their kids. It's actually been one of the few positives of the quarantine. I bike all the time and I'm usually one of a few in the hot Florida sun but that's changed since March. I see at least 20-40 bike riders everyday now around my subdivision.

[It’s so Joever]

And Independence Day is right around the corner.

Arizonans, PLEASE PLEASE take this seriously. 

They probably won't. The optics of basically demanding everyone go outside and celebrate slave emancipation day and mere weeks later declaring the 4th of july not important enough to celebrate (as Dems prematurely tweet its a racist holiday before hastily deleting that) are so apparently partisan and racialist that a lot of people aren't going to stand for being told to go inside. Im going to a cookout at my grandpa's since hes getting home hospice care now and i haven't seen him since pre-lockdown.

We are all very proud of you.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1278405761077477376

Just so obviously not up to the job, and the Republican party has decided they want to keep him in office anyway, American lives be damned.

[Landslide Lyndon]

GOP is a death cult: Part 2757954

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1278323030553497600

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I updated my Stata model to include test positivity rate and its interaction with case.  These are the results, estimating daily deaths from April 1 to June 30.

Here, "avgcases" is the average number of cases over the previous 7 days, while "averagecase7" is the average for the 7 days before that (etc. for 14, 21, and 28 days before that). "{osperc" is test positivity rate on the given day, while "posminus7" is the lagged positivity rate 7 days earlier (etc for 14, 21, and 28 days earlier).  "Casespos" (and its lagged variables) are the interaction between total cases and positivity rate.  "Deathminus7" is the number of deaths 7 days earlier.  I also include fixed effects for each day of the week.

The overall impact of lagged cases is still very similar.  Average cases lagged one week are the only variable with any substantive or statistical significance on their own.  

For the most part, adding positivity rate has no significant effect, with one exception.  Positivity is significant in interaction with 14-day lagged cases.  So while cases lagged 7-days always have an effect on deaths, cases lagged 14-days only have a major effect when test positivity (also lagged 14-days) was high.  For example, an additional 1000 cases 14 days earlier would result in 8 additional deaths when test positivity was 3%, but 21 additional deaths when positivity was 10%.  Current cases, as well as cases 3 weeks ago or more, never have a significant effect on deaths.

. reg deaths deathminus7 days avgcases avgcases7 avgcases14 avgcases21 avgcases28 posperc posminus7 p
> osminus14 posminus21 posminus28 casespos casespos7 casespos14 casespos21 casespos28 i.weekday if da
> ys>31&days<123

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        91
-------------+----------------------------------   F(24, 66)       =     60.11
       Model |  35728644.6        24  1488693.53   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  1634438.67        66  24764.2223   R-squared       =    0.9563
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.9403
       Total |  37363083.3        90   415145.37   Root MSE        =    157.37

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      deaths |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 deathminus7 |   .4674046    .104832     4.46   0.000     .2581007    .6767085
        days |  -11.89638   5.265929    -2.26   0.027    -22.41015   -1.382614
    avgcases |  -.0095963   .0120319    -0.80   0.428    -.0336188    .0144262
   avgcases7 |   .0395809   .0173289     2.28   0.026     .0049827    .0741792
  avgcases14 |  -.0491985   .0171413    -2.87   0.006    -.0834222   -.0149747
  avgcases21 |   .0159292   .0149175     1.07   0.289    -.0138546    .0457129
  avgcases28 |  -.0051158   .0109589    -0.47   0.642     -.026996    .0167645
     posperc |  -1690.344   2372.583    -0.71   0.479    -6427.358     3046.67
   posminus7 |   715.4029   2176.551     0.33   0.743    -3630.221    5061.027
  posminus14 |  -5678.463   2039.865    -2.78   0.007    -9751.185   -1605.741
  posminus21 |   676.9361   1301.756     0.52   0.605    -1922.104    3275.976
  posminus28 |  -99.96956   868.0994    -0.12   0.909    -1833.186    1633.247
    casespos |   .0746608   .0778795     0.96   0.341    -.0808307    .2301522
   casespos7 |  -.0269732   .0704437    -0.38   0.703    -.1676185    .1136721
  casespos14 |   .2120465   .0679098     3.12   0.003     .0764602    .3476329
  casespos21 |  -.0446484   .0502626    -0.89   0.378    -.1450009    .0557042
  casespos28 |   .0143544   .0445213     0.32   0.748    -.0745353     .103244
             |
     weekday |
          2  |   82.38582   73.89428     1.11   0.269    -65.14887    229.9205
          3  |   420.2182   111.0866     3.78   0.000     198.4268    642.0097
          4  |   343.6183   116.7902     2.94   0.004     110.4391    576.7975
          5  |   227.4863   113.5001     2.00   0.049     .8759877    454.0966
          6  |    136.587   126.1011     1.08   0.283     -115.182     388.356
          7  |   101.4743   93.32886     1.09   0.281    -84.86273    287.8114
          8  |  -281.1558   156.3947    -1.80   0.077    -593.4079    31.09634
             |
       _cons |    1633.96   693.1888     2.36   0.021     249.9637    3017.956
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's a graph of the new model fit:
(The x-axis "Days" is days since March 1.  Because of all the lags, I entered data starting March 1, but only started estimating deaths starting April 1.)

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/SophieNovack/status/1278443106313080834

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the western suburbs of Atlanta:

The public health department for Cobb and Douglas counties issued an alert Wednesday warning of a “substantial rise” in confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus.

The alert pointed to evidence of increased transmission that could not be attributed to additional testing, with the positivity rate at local testing sites surpassing 10 percent. This has been mirrored by an increase in COVID-19 related 911 calls, emergency room visits, hospitalizations and demand for intensive care unit beds, the agency said.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/public-health-alert-issued-for-cobb-douglas-over-coronavirus-surge/o08A9LvZy18z588hp4rxDL/

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1278405761077477376

To be fair, he actually has a long-term strategy here with saying this over and over. Eventually he's going to be right if he keeps saying it. However, he may not even be in office anymore (ideally) when it happens.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/Mike_Hixenbaugh/status/1278461047054237696

https://twitter.com/Buckleup36/status/1277023213118279680

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/Mike_Hixenbaugh/status/1278461047054237696

https://twitter.com/Buckleup36/status/1277023213118279680

His last tweet has been debunked multiple times with regards to Florida.  Its been spreading throughout the web for over a month now, appears they're now trying the same with Texas.  Makes the rest of his "reporting" just as suspect.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jun/03/facebook-posts/claim-florida-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-uses-f/

[Beet]

Here's what the Politifact says:

So what these posts did was take the 900 figure, which referred to cases in recent years where pneumonia is the underlying cause of death, and compare that to a broader category of cases this year where pneumonia is mentioned on a death certificate, data which is provisional at this point.

It seems the way to settle this would be to go back to previous years' provisional data and see what they looked like. Because even if we assume all the Covid-19 deaths were also assigned to pneumonia, and exclude those, what we have is:
Florida: 5,872 - 2,200 = 3,672 pneumonia deaths (vs 972 avg)
Texas 5,344 - 1,420 = 3,924 pneumonia deaths (vs 1,168 avg)

Still way above the average for previous years.

[Green Line]

Here's what the Politifact says:

So what these posts did was take the 900 figure, which referred to cases in recent years where pneumonia is the underlying cause of death, and compare that to a broader category of cases this year where pneumonia is mentioned on a death certificate, data which is provisional at this point.

It seems the way to settle this would be to go back to previous years' provisional data and see what they looked like. Because even if we assume all the Covid-19 deaths were also assigned to pneumonia, and exclude those, what we have is:
Florida: 5,872 - 2,200 = 3,672 pneumonia deaths (vs 972 avg)
Texas 5,344 - 1,420 = 3,924 pneumonia deaths (vs 1,168 avg)

Still way above the average for previous years.

Except its not just Covid vs Pneumonia.  If pneumonia is listed on the death certificate at all it would be included in those figures, not necessarily as the primary cause of death (provisionally).

I don't see any evidence that Florida and Texas hospitals are engaged in some huge conspiracy to cover up their dead Covid patients.

[Beet]

Here's what the Politifact says:

So what these posts did was take the 900 figure, which referred to cases in recent years where pneumonia is the underlying cause of death, and compare that to a broader category of cases this year where pneumonia is mentioned on a death certificate, data which is provisional at this point.

It seems the way to settle this would be to go back to previous years' provisional data and see what they looked like. Because even if we assume all the Covid-19 deaths were also assigned to pneumonia, and exclude those, what we have is:
Florida: 5,872 - 2,200 = 3,672 pneumonia deaths (vs 972 avg)
Texas 5,344 - 1,420 = 3,924 pneumonia deaths (vs 1,168 avg)

Still way above the average for previous years.

Except its not just Covid vs Pneumonia.  If pneumonia is listed on the death certificate at all it would be included in those figures, not necessarily as the primary cause of death (provisionally).

I don't see any evidence that Florida and Texas hospitals are engaged in some huge conspiracy to cover up their dead Covid patients.

I know. That's why I said the proper way to do it is to look back at previous years' provisional data and see what the average drop-off is.

An undercount doesn't require a massive conspiracy. All it requires is that people who died in their homes, or otherwise died before being tested and confirmed, or those who tested a false negative, not be counted as Covid patients.