COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

Where are you getting this from? Nate Silver has today's case numbers falling to a record low, 16K.

I don’t know how Nate Silver gets his data, and he probably omitted the MA case dump due to criteria changes, but I use Worldometers.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

Where are you getting this from? Nate Silver has today's case numbers falling to a record low, 16K.

The 7-day moving average of deaths from the worldometers data is 1018 today, up from 986 yesterday and 983 the day before, but still down compared to 1117 one week ago.   I believe Nate published his data before the MA data dump, though the average would still be slightly up even without it.  

The average will definitely go up significantly tomorrow because of the low counts last Tuesday due to Memorial Day.  But I think the holiday weekend has made trying to assess daily movement in the average wonky all week.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

22k cases today I don't know where nate got the 16k from

[emailking]

200 more deaths than last Monday. Hopefully it's just because of Memorial Day.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18:

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19:

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)

5/20:

• Cases: 1,591,991 (+21,408 | Δ Change: ↑5.52% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 94,994 (+1,461 | Δ Change: ↓5.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)

5/21:

• Cases: 1,620,902 (+28,911 | Δ Change: ↑35.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)
• Deaths: 96,354 (+1,360 | Δ Change: ↓6.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)

5/22:

• Cases: 1,645,094 (+24,192 | Δ Change: ↓16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.49%)
• Deaths: 97,647 (+1,293 | Δ Change: ↓4.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)

5/23:

• Cases: 1,666,828 (+21,734 | Δ Change: ↓10.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 98,683 (+1,036 | Δ Change: ↓19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

5/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

5/25:

• Cases: 1,706,224 (+19,788 | Δ Change: ↑0.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 99,805 (+505 | Δ Change: ↓18.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

5/26:

• Cases: 1,725,141 (+18,917 | Δ Change: ↓4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 100,579 (+774 | Δ Change: ↑53.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

5/27:

• Cases: 1,745,803 (+20,662 | Δ Change: ↑9.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 102,107 (+1,528 | Δ Change: ↑97.42% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)

5/28:

• Cases: 1,768,461 (+22,658 | Δ Change: ↑9.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 103,330 (+1,223 | Δ Change: ↓19.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)

5/29:

• Cases: 1,793,530 (+25,069 | Δ Change: ↑10.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 104,542 (+1,212 | Δ Change: ↓0.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/30:

• Cases: 1,816,820 (+23,290 | Δ Change: ↓7.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 105,557 (+1,015 | Δ Change: ↓16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

5/31 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1 (Today):

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

22k cases today I don't know where nate got the 16k from

Nate bases his data on reports issued earlier in the day than worldometers.  There was a dump of 4k "probable" cases and 189 "probable" deaths of unknown date by Massachusetts late today that worldometers included in today's daily numbers but Nate didn't.

[emailking]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

[gerritcole]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

[GeorgiaModerate]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

[gerritcole]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

[Calthrina950]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

There's no guarantee that there will be a second wave, but it is certainly noteworthy that coronavirus has finally been pushed from the top of the news for the first time in over two months. However, it is still with us, and signs of it are still everywhere. Notice how most of the protesters have been wearing masks.

[GP270watch]

 I went to the supermarket just now and while the last few weeks the majority of people were wearing mask, today all the employees still were but about half of the people shopping were not.

[Calthrina950]

I went to the supermarket just now and while the last few weeks the majority of people were wearing mask, today all the employees still were but about half of the people shopping were not.

Yesterday, at my job, around 40% or so of customers were not wearing masks. This is the same general pattern which has persisted for some weeks, and of which I've made some note before. As we move farther into the summer, I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers of people wearing masks continues to decline in those states/cities, and at those businesses, where it has not been made mandatory.

[Calthrina950]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

6/1 (Today):

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

But yes, mass media and the online hivemind have moved on.

More disturbingly, governors have, almost overnight, overturned their advice on mass gatherings. Many of them are encouraging people to attend mass demonstrations taking place in direct violation of guidelines that continue to force businesses to remain closed. Remember what happened in New Orleans after Mardi Gras?

This feeds into the arguments which have been made by many lockdown skeptics (arguments which I believe hold some value), that many of our Governors and Mayors have overstepped the bounds of their authority with the restrictions which they have imposed. And that the reasoning behind some of these restrictions could very well be political, with public health being a secondary concern. It disturbs me as well how quickly these riots have pushed coronavirus from being the center of attention. Of course, they are unacceptable, and arose from a horrific incident, but it's still notable, nonetheless.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest US vs. European case and death graphs

I've added Pennsylvania and Illinois to the US states graph.
Averages are up in the US over the last few week; it remains to be seen whether this is an anomaly due to the holiday weekend or a new trend.
It appears that Spain has recorded only 10 deaths total over the last week.  Very good news obviously, but I wonder if we could be due for a data dump there.

[Grassroots]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

There's no guarantee that there will be a second wave, but it is certainly noteworthy that coronavirus has finally been pushed from the top of the news for the first time in over two months. However, it is still with us, and signs of it are still everywhere. Notice how most of the protesters have been wearing masks.

The virus is still going on but the initial hype is wearing off. When a second wave strikes in winter, we probably won't need protective measures at all, due to increased healthcare capacity.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Averages are up in the US over the last few week; it remains to be seen whether this is an anomaly due to the holiday weekend or a new trend.

It's difficult to deny that there are any number of reasons why it could be a new trend--or that no political "side" really has the moral high ground on staying home or social distancing after the events of the past week.

[TJ in Oregon]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

I should go to a protest with thousands of people but churches have a strict limit of 25.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

I should go to a protest with thousands of people but churches have a strict limit of 25.

The virus spreads easier indoors.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

I should go to a protest with thousands of people but churches have a strict limit of 25.

The virus spreads easier indoors.

It's a catch-22. You either let corrupt public officials do whatever they want  or abandon public health. We're really at the point of no return on so many things.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

I should go to a protest with thousands of people but churches have a strict limit of 25.

The virus spreads easier indoors.

It's a catch-22. You either let corrupt public officials do whatever they want  or abandon public health. We're really at the point of no return on so many things.

That's a good way to put it, everything is such a mess right now.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1267999135455682560

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1267709439467020288

 these bullsh**t health experts.
Del Tachi was 100% in calling our their absolute fakeness.

I should go to a protest with thousands of people but churches have a strict limit of 25.

The virus spreads easier indoors.

It's a catch-22. You either let corrupt public officials do whatever they want  or abandon public health. We're really at the point of no return on so many things.

That's a good way to put it, everything is such a mess right now.

That's an understatement. This is failure.

[Calthrina950]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

There's no guarantee that there will be a second wave, but it is certainly noteworthy that coronavirus has finally been pushed from the top of the news for the first time in over two months. However, it is still with us, and signs of it are still everywhere. Notice how most of the protesters have been wearing masks.

The virus is still going on but the initial hype is wearing off. When a second wave strikes in winter, we probably won't need protective measures at all, due to increased healthcare capacity.

I surely hope so, because I don't think our economy and society could tolerate a second round of lockdown orders. As I've said before, anger and frustration owing to the lockdowns-with the suspension of large-scale events, the closure of businesses, and the corresponding unemployment-undoubtedly contributed to the riots which we have seen over the past week. The economic damage has been considerable, and a second lockdown period would certainly push us into another Great Depression (which may already be happening as it is). Moreover, I've started to think that some aspects of the initial governmental response was flawed-particularly with regards to the failures in securing nursing homes.

As for masks, I hold to my prediction that they will be the norm for the remainder of the year, but we'll see if it breaks earlier to that, due to the high temperatures coming our way. It is of note to me though that the majority of these protesters have been wearing masks, in contrast to the anti-lockdown protesters of a month or two ago, most of whom were not.