COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Grassroots]

One thing to note is that deaths have been on a steady downward trend, while cases are largely plateauing. Is the virus is slowly mutating to become less deadly?

Yes. This was noticed by scientists early on. Same thing happened with a few other viruses, including SARS, but SARS's mutation trend eventually made it even less contagious.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

This is the  protests), once this fever breaks the lockdowns will be over. You really think people will go back to shuttering themselves in place once all this subsides? Further, you really think people will shutdown their economies ever again? Yeah okay lol.

[GoTfan]

One thing to note is that deaths have been on a steady downward trend, while cases are largely plateauing. Is the virus is slowly mutating to become less deadly?

Yes. This was noticed by scientists early on. Same thing happened with a few other viruses, including SARS, but SARS's mutation trend eventually made it even less contagious.

And there is going to be a second wave. We know this.

[emailking]

Another day with about the same number of deaths as a week ago.

Hey Dr. Fauci, are you going to factor these riots into your models? He’s gotten everything wrong so far, so I have no doubt he will be wrong going forward.

Pretty sure he's gotten nothing wrong so far. On the other hand, your posts have like a 20% signal to noise ratio.

[icemanj]

Another day with about the same number of deaths as a week ago.

Hey Dr. Fauci, are you going to factor these riots into your models? He’s gotten everything wrong so far, so I have no doubt he will be wrong going forward.

Pretty sure he's gotten nothing wrong so far. On the other hand, your posts have like a 20% signal to noise ratio.

Most days this week were much better than last week, though.
7-day moving average May 23: 1223
7-day moving average May 30: 982

[Brittain33]

The protestors are hypocritical and shouldn’t be doing this right now.

Maybe this is a stupid question, but why do we believe the protesters are people who support the shutdown any more than the white people who don't wear masks and go to bars? While "Democrats" support the shutdowns, I thought it was affluent people who can work from home who are the strongest advocates. I genuinely don't know what the sentiment is among African-Americans other than that they've suffered disproportionately from the disease and are often less likely to be able to isolate because of housing and their jobs.

[The Free North]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

[Crumpets]

Great new map on Wikipedia:

[It’s so Joever]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

Cases are already showing signs of rising, so don’t get too hopeful.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1267160994230476808

[Grassroots]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

Cases are already showing signs of rising, so don’t get too hopeful.

No? Where are you getting this from?

[It’s so Joever]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

Cases are already showing signs of rising, so don’t get too hopeful.

No? Where are you getting this from?

Worldometers 7 day average.
Meanwhile positivity rates have remained pretty stable.
Maybe it’s a blip, but considering the overall slowing of our decline, I doubt it.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

So one of two things will happen:

1. There are minimal spikes in Covid cases and the sham will be fully exposed.
2. There will be a massive spike in Covid cases, essentially undoing any of the good work that lockdowns may have done.

In either case, you will never get a second lockdown after the absolute fukcery of the last two months.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Even if we don’t see a big surge in deaths as states reopen, I think it’s hard to argue that the lockdowns weren’t justified in areas in New York City where the health care system was collapsing.  The may be harder to justify in areas where there wasn’t already significant spread of the virus.  If anything, it may be that many places locked down too early.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So one of two things will happen:

1. There are minimal spikes in Covid cases and the sham will be fully exposed.
2. There will be a massive spike in Covid cases, essentially undoing any of the good work that lockdowns may have done.

In either case, you will never get a second lockdown after the absolute fukcery of the last two months.

Stop!

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/31 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18:

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19:

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)

5/20:

• Cases: 1,591,991 (+21,408 | Δ Change: ↑5.52% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 94,994 (+1,461 | Δ Change: ↓5.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)

5/21:

• Cases: 1,620,902 (+28,911 | Δ Change: ↑35.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)
• Deaths: 96,354 (+1,360 | Δ Change: ↓6.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)

5/22:

• Cases: 1,645,094 (+24,192 | Δ Change: ↓16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.49%)
• Deaths: 97,647 (+1,293 | Δ Change: ↓4.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)

5/23:

• Cases: 1,666,828 (+21,734 | Δ Change: ↓10.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 98,683 (+1,036 | Δ Change: ↓19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

5/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

5/25:

• Cases: 1,706,224 (+19,788 | Δ Change: ↑0.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 99,805 (+505 | Δ Change: ↓18.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

5/26:

• Cases: 1,725,141 (+18,917 | Δ Change: ↓4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 100,579 (+774 | Δ Change: ↑53.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

5/27:

• Cases: 1,745,803 (+20,662 | Δ Change: ↑9.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 102,107 (+1,528 | Δ Change: ↑97.42% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)

5/28:

• Cases: 1,768,461 (+22,658 | Δ Change: ↑9.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 103,330 (+1,223 | Δ Change: ↓19.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)

5/29:

• Cases: 1,793,530 (+25,069 | Δ Change: ↑10.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 104,542 (+1,212 | Δ Change: ↓0.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/30 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,816,820 (+23,290 | Δ Change: ↓7.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 105,557 (+1,015 | Δ Change: ↓16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

5/31 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

[It’s so Joever]

We have now reached a plateau, which is actually horrible news considering how we are still at 20k cases per day on a good day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KristenhCNN/status/1267252133822435330

[The Free North]

So one of two things will happen:

1. There are minimal spikes in Covid cases and the sham will be fully exposed.
2. There will be a massive spike in Covid cases, essentially undoing any of the good work that lockdowns may have done.

In either case, you will never get a second lockdown after the absolute fukcery of the last two months.

Stop!

He's 100% right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1267517520828825603

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1267517520828825603

Michigan did a really good job.

Considering where they were a month ago, for sure. Kinda like how Washington went from a tragedy to a success story.

[It’s so Joever]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

[Meclazine for Israel]

One thing to note is that deaths have been on a steady downward trend, while cases are largely plateauing. Is the virus is slowly mutating to become less deadly?

I believe greatly increased testing accounts for the constant number of cases

Yes, the US is now testing at 4-5 times the rate from 6 weeks ago. This will reveal more positive new results for people who are not entering hospital i.e. asymptomatic cases and non-treatable cases where people just stay home for 14 days.

But the deaths have continued to drop at a very consistent rate. The US is well past the worst of it with a peak from April 20.

The tail in the UK and US appears longer than the other European countries affected.

In Western Australia, we are completely opening up for normal life June 6.

The US wont be far behind. All of the piano and soft guitar ads in A minor on TV where large corporations and B-grade celebrities pretend to care about your feelings will end soon, and we will get back to normal business.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So one of two things will happen:

1. There are minimal spikes in Covid cases and the sham will be fully exposed.
2. There will be a massive spike in Covid cases, essentially undoing any of the good work that lockdowns may have done.

In either case, you will never get a second lockdown after the absolute fukcery of the last two months.

Stop!

He's 100% right.

No he isn't.

[Grassroots]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

Where are you getting this from? Nate Silver has today's case numbers falling to a record low, 16K.