COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I feel like if the virus is as contagious as it now appears, it won't really matter how long we keep the lockdown going; we're not going to be able to eradicate to a sufficient degree that it won't just pop back up as soon as the lockdown ends.  If this is true, a universal lockdown really has no benefit, because most people are going to get the virus.  It's would be much better to enforce selective social distancing to control when people get the virus rather than if.  We can protect the most vulnerable until we reach herd immunity.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The good news is new cases seem to be peaking around 31-34k, the bad news is we don't know how long it'll take before it starts trending down

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I feel like if the virus is as contagious as it now appears, it won't really matter how long we keep the lockdown going; we're not going to be able to eradicate to a sufficient degree that it won't just pop back up as soon as the lockdown ends.  If this is true, a universal lockdown really has no benefit, because most people are going to get the virus.  It's would be much better to enforce selective social distancing to control when people get the virus rather than if.  We can protect the most vulnerable until we reach herd immunity.

We're going to need to test everyone at some point and have everyone positive continue the lockdown.

[It’s so Joever]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

Trust me on this. There won't be any. There can't be any. There shan't be any.

Not gonna happen.

And if you're wrong?

To be fair, this may be the first time in a while that Bandit has a point. If we slowly lift restrictions on areas that are practically not being affected, and keep doing that slowly, we probably will be fine and the “hotspots” will be, maybe a neighborhood, at most. The problem is, a lot of people on here seem (not saying they do, so don’t get all offended, people) to want to lift these restrictions now (horrible mistake) and/or want it to be done suddenly (also very horrible mistake) There are ways we can prevent reemergences, and if America were smart, we would be doing that after a two-week national lockdown.

[It’s so Joever]

How tf is it false?
The deaths are happening very rapidly and the entire city is shocked by these events. If anything, I think this is worse than 9/11.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If these lockdowns last long enough, there will not BE enough such testing, nor sufficient medical care for those who need it the most - the money won't be there to do it enough to give them ideal aid. The economy would have crashed.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

How tf is it false?
The deaths are happening very rapidly and the entire city is shocked by these events. If anything, I think this is worse than 9/11.

Because the death numbers don’t distinguish between those dying with Corona vs. those dying from Corona. That’s a pretty big deal.

The projection numbers were way, way off.

The lethality percentage is much lower. In fact, German study has it now at 0.36%

I could go on.

If the data is wrong, then how can you possibly make accurate policy decisions? Answer: You can’t.

[Skill and Chance]

I feel like if the virus is as contagious as it now appears, it won't really matter how long we keep the lockdown going; we're not going to be able to eradicate to a sufficient degree that it won't just pop back up as soon as the lockdown ends.  If this is true, a universal lockdown really has no benefit, because most people are going to get the virus.  It's would be much better to enforce selective social distancing to control when people get the virus rather than if.  We can protect the most vulnerable until we reach herd immunity.

I don't follow on this.  If ~15% of the population in the hardest hit parts of Europe has it, how is it so contagious that it's inevitable a supermajority of the population gets it by the end of the year?

It's very true there is a limit to lockdowns.  I agree that we need a prompt transition to intermediate distancing measure that are socially and economically sustainable until universal vaccination in areas where this is under control (sports for TV with empty stadiums, restaurants with tables 6+ ft apart and masked servers, middle seats blocked off on aircraft,  every other pew in churches, etc.).

[It’s so Joever]

How tf is it false?
The deaths are happening very rapidly and the entire city is shocked by these events. If anything, I think this is worse than 9/11.

Because the death numbers don’t distinguish between those dying with Corona vs. those dying from Corona. That’s a pretty big deal.

The projection numbers were way, way off.

The lethality percentage is much lower. In fact, German study has it now at 0.36%

I could go on.

If the data is wrong, then how can you possibly make accurate policy decisions? Answer: You can’t.

So you are going to go with the lowest study?
Because another controlled, tested environment had a mortality rate of 1.5% and that number still could go up.
Many studies are finding the likely mortality rate is around 1%, and obviously some outliers are higher.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I feel like if the virus is as contagious as it now appears, it won't really matter how long we keep the lockdown going; we're not going to be able to eradicate to a sufficient degree that it won't just pop back up as soon as the lockdown ends.  If this is true, a universal lockdown really has no benefit, because most people are going to get the virus.  It's would be much better to enforce selective social distancing to control when people get the virus rather than if.  We can protect the most vulnerable until we reach herd immunity.

I don't follow on this.  If ~15% of the population in the hardest hit parts of Europe has it, how is it so contagious that it's inevitable a supermajority of the population gets it by the end of the year?

It's very true there is a limit to lockdowns.  I agree that we need a prompt transition to intermediate distancing measure that are socially and economically sustainable until universal vaccination in areas where this is under control (sports for TV with empty stadiums, restaurants with tables 6+ ft apart and masked servers, middle seats blocked off on aircraft,  every other pew in churches, etc.).

I’m not sure of the point you are trying to make with the 15% figure.  Are you suggesting this is high or low?  

If you are asking why -only- 15% of the hardest hit places have the virus, it’s obviously because they implemented a lockdown.  It does seem like the lockdowns eventually get the R0 of the virus below 1.  But not sufficiently below 1 that the cases will fall enough for the lockdowns to be lifted in any reasonably amount of time.  And whenever they are lifted, that 15% will again expand rapidly until herd immunity is reached.

[It’s so Joever]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Due to faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

You know there’s over 16,000 dead Americans from this right? As in, more than five 9/11s. You have some competition, but I do believe you may be the dumbest person on this forum.

False equivalency.

And those numbers are grossly inaccurate (inflated).

Could you explain how 16,000 deaths are inflated? Is the government purposefully over reporting deaths?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Due to faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

You know there’s over 16,000 dead Americans from this right? As in, more than five 9/11s. You have some competition, but I do believe you may be the dumbest person on this forum.

False equivalency.

And those numbers are grossly inaccurate (inflated).

Could you explain how 16,000 deaths are inflated? Is the government purposefully over reporting deaths?

I already told you.

[Tekken_Guy]

The good news is new cases seem to be peaking around 31-34k, the bad news is we don't know how long it'll take before it starts trending down

Italy peaked about 3 weeks ago and today’s numbers are still 64% of that peak.

[It’s so Joever]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Due to faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

You know there’s over 16,000 dead Americans from this right? As in, more than five 9/11s. You have some competition, but I do believe you may be the dumbest person on this forum.

False equivalency.

And those numbers are grossly inaccurate (inflated).

Could you explain how 16,000 deaths are inflated? Is the government purposefully over reporting deaths?

I already told you.

You are right, I should learn to pay attention more.

Anyways, yes, you make a point, but how are we to determine whether someone “would have died” if they didn’t have the virus? Having a virus like this can provoke your entire body, and it can trigger seizures and other chronic health problems. Your point is why we shouldn’t compare ourselves to other countries without a grain of salt, but it doesn’t mean this isn’t a major threat that has killed more than 9/11.
Additionally, we have to consider deaths caused by the collapse of hospitals if you are going to compare the virus to the shutdown.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/9 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:

• Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
• Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:

• Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
• Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9 (Today):

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

[Grassroots]

Promising numbers from today. Let's not lift the restrictions until at least may, then we will be able to allow the warm weather to prevent the case numbers from getting out of control.

The summer will be a break. We will use the time to implement tracing and prepare the medical system for the fall wave so that we won't have to implement lockdowns when the fall wave hits.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

Please don't assume my motivations for anything.  A German study based on antibodies just concluded that this has a 0.37% fatality rate.  That's slightly worse than the flu, but not bad enough to justify keeping society shut down.  If people think that they are uniquely predisposed, they should be able to make personal decisions to self-quarantine past when it's no longer mandatory.  But all I said is that I'm going to go on living my life the day the government says I can and won't continue to isolate myself.  I'm not sure how that's controversial.

This has nothing to do with "owning the libs" (I've actually been following this since January and was told by friends that it was no big deal six weeks before everything shut down).  I can recognize that this is an extremely contagious virus but also that it's not a particularly deadly one.

[forgotten manatee]

Promising numbers from today. Let's not lift the restrictions until at least may, then we will be able to allow the warm weather to prevent the case numbers from getting out of control.

The summer will be a break. We will use the time to implement tracing and prepare the medical system for the fall wave so that we won't have to implement lockdowns when the fall wave hits.

I think we should keep the measures in place until June 1, and get relief to folks who need it in the meanwhile. If the situation is markedly improving over the course of May, we could lift things sooner.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone have any sort of reliable data on the number of deaths from suicides and overdoses, as well as the rates of addiction and domestic violence since the lockdowns started?

[It’s so Joever]

Promising numbers from today. Let's not lift the restrictions until at least may, then we will be able to allow the warm weather to prevent the case numbers from getting out of control.

The summer will be a break. We will use the time to implement tracing and prepare the medical system for the fall wave so that we won't have to implement lockdowns when the fall wave hits.

I think we should keep the measures in place until June 1, and get relief to folks who need it in the meanwhile. If the situation is markedly improving over the course of May, we could lift things sooner.

I think it should vary regionally. Some places should be slowly eased back to normal throughout May, but others may need to stay locked down if there are still hotspots.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

How tf is it false?
The deaths are happening very rapidly and the entire city is shocked by these events. If anything, I think this is worse than 9/11.

Because the death numbers don’t distinguish between those dying with Corona vs. those dying from Corona. That’s a pretty big deal.

Anybody who knows even the basics of medicine knows that these are indistinguishable, especially considering the very high number of people who are being seriously ill/dying with no pre-existing conditions.

Even still if you are surviving with an underlying pre-existing condition and are infected with the virus, it's certainly making your condition worse. Dying of your pre-existing condition which was exacerbated by COVID is functionally equivalent to dying of COVID itself.

[forgotten manatee]

How tf is it false?
The deaths are happening very rapidly and the entire city is shocked by these events. If anything, I think this is worse than 9/11.

Because the death numbers don’t distinguish between those dying with Corona vs. those dying from Corona. That’s a pretty big deal.

Anybody who knows even the basics of medicine knows that these are indistinguishable, especially considering the very high number of people who are being seriously ill/dying with no pre-existing conditions.

Even still if you are surviving with an underlying pre-existing condition and are infected with the virus, it's certainly making your condition worse. Dying of your pre-existing condition which was exacerbated by COVID is functionally equivalent to dying of COVID itself.

Don’t waste your time reasoning with fools who have no respect for experts.

[Sbane]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

Trust me on this. There won't be any. There can't be any. There shan't be any.

Not gonna happen.

What is this based on? Why do you think that will be the case?

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

Please don't assume my motivations for anything.  A German study based on antibodies just concluded that this has a 0.37% fatality rate.  That's slightly worse than the flu, but not bad enough to justify keeping society shut down.  If people think that they are uniquely predisposed, they should be able to make personal decisions to self-quarantine past when it's no longer mandatory.  But all I said is that I'm going to go on living my life the day the government says I can and won't continue to isolate myself.  I'm not sure how that's controversial.

This has nothing to do with "owning the libs" (I've actually been following this since January and was told by friends that it was no big deal six weeks before everything shut down).  I can recognize that this is an extremely contagious virus but also that it's not a particularly deadly one.

The study was only 500 people. Another controlled environment with close to 500 people (actually 700 infected) had a mortality rate of 1.5%.
What does this mean?
500 people is too small for an accurate study.
Honestly I still maintain that the mortality rate is somewhere in the middle, and that .4% is a very optimistic number (but possible). That being said, we all should be keeping an eye on Iceland’s numbers. They are testing a ton of people per capita and may provide some more insight into the true mortality of Covid. Keep in mind the death numbers are reflective of what was found about a week ago (it takes time for people to die from this) but still watch what happens over the next few weeks.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

Please don't assume my motivations for anything.  A German study based on antibodies just concluded that this has a 0.37% fatality rate.  That's slightly worse than the flu, but not bad enough to justify keeping society shut down.  If people think that they are uniquely predisposed, they should be able to make personal decisions to self-quarantine past when it's no longer mandatory.  But all I said is that I'm going to go on living my life the day the government says I can and won't continue to isolate myself.  I'm not sure how that's controversial.

This has nothing to do with "owning the libs" (I've actually been following this since January and was told by friends that it was no big deal six weeks before everything shut down).  I can recognize that this is an extremely contagious virus but also that it's not a particularly deadly one.

It's not just about the death rate though. This overwhlemed the hospitals in Lombardy. It overhwlemed the hospitals in NYC. I said this before and you didn't say anything.