COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Grassroots]

Do we know when things will be back to normal? (meaning: large gatherings, multiple people shopping, non-essential businessis open, no National Gaurd at state boarders, not having to wear masks, etc)?

Businesses/Schools open: mid-late may.
Large gatherings: Late June

[Grassroots]

(snip)

Current death rate in the United States is pushing 3%. Far far far deadlier than the common flu. Please do not wrap yourself up in disinformation, or at least at the minimum do not spread it to others. Practice social distancing, not factual distancing.

Best line of the thread.  This should be on T-shirts.

If it is 3% in US, what is it in Italy/Spain/France then? 10%?

No. Closer to 5%. And those are very elderly populations.

[Grassroots]

The national peak is projected for the 15th. We appear to be on the course for that date being moved earlier.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

Thankfully our government acted swiftly when there were still a handful of cases and now we are doing pretty good. There is even word that by June we may see a considerable relaxation of the lockdown.

In America there's a 99% chance the lockdown is going to flat out end before June. How bad is it there!?

[Grassroots]

Well there goes the flattening the curve theory

What are you talking about.

[Grassroots]

Here's a map I pulled together from the IHME tracker. It shows how long each state has to go before its projected date of peak resource use (the top of the proverbial curve).

Dark red = >10 days until peak
Medium red = >5 days until peak
Pink = <5 days until peak
Yellow = Today is projected peak
Light green = <5 days since peak
medium green = >5 days since peak

Good work, but my suspecion is that there will come a time we have to return to normalcy and open stuff up. Once that happens, the virus will likely come back and even more because there is literally no immunity in the population. Studies and experience showed that warm weather has little or no effect in contrast to the flu.

What studies? The reason why this thing isn't exploding in FL, TX, and other southern states is primarily because it does worse in warmer temperatures.

[Grassroots]

I'm literally f__king CRYING of laughter. This guy is funnier than any comedian ever has been or ever could be.

https://youtu.be/zi_qX50zv7k

Who ever said evangelical Republicans were good for nothing?

Looks like he can barely container his own laughter

Its funny until you realize he's worth $760 million.

Ugh. This figure made me look him up on Wikipedia. Turns out I was completely wrong giving this jackhole the benefit of the doubt. Turns out he is of course the walking embodiment of stereotypical ignoramus fleecing televangelist. That's right down to spreading anti-vax nonsense several years ago, and even recently proclaiming covid-19 basically cured by his spiritual war with the devil, Etc.

What a bastard.

And no fuzzy, don't whine that this is anti fundamentalist bigotry. Surely you agree this a****** digs his own grave in that regard.

Dude, I've known about Kenneth Copeland for years. His tentacles go wayyyy back.

[Grassroots]

Another member of Congress tests positive:

https://mobile.twitter.com/abc27/status/1248291910000750593

Dude looks so bad ass. He will beat covid to a pulp.

Breaking news: Coronavirus tests positive with Neal Dunn.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/AngrierWHStaff/status/1248299586600517632

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1248316823302483969?s=19

ANTIFA JOSH

He's so based holy crap.

[Grassroots]

Promising numbers from today. Let's not lift the restrictions until at least may, then we will be able to allow the warm weather to prevent the case numbers from getting out of control.

The summer will be a break. We will use the time to implement tracing and prepare the medical system for the fall wave so that we won't have to implement lockdowns when the fall wave hits.

[Grassroots]

My business lost 75% of its business 4 weeks before we had the stay at home order it was like night and day. Even if we reopen the economy theres a good chance most people still wont go out

For a little bit at least.

[Grassroots]

The problem with people who presume that the restrictions are killing the economy is that they fail to understand that absent these restrictions, large number of people would not be attending or participating in risky economic activity.

Furthermore from a liability standpoint. How can you hold a concert, or a business conference in a world without the stay at home orders? You couldn't even begin to cover that liability, no insurance company on earth would cover that risk. No business would want to risk being sued into oblivion by people once they get infected.

With or without the stay at home orders and mitigation, the economy was going to get wrecked and until you get the virus under control and gone, you cannot conduct business. Not because the government won't allow you to, but because you literally cannot afford conduct business in this environment. Either you won't have any customers or you get sued into oblivion, or both.

I don't understand why the critics of the mitigation strategy don't account for this aspect of the economic effects of the virus.

This. The only way to actually just flip a switch and make the economy work again is if you keep the restrictions until mid-late may, when the cases have fallen.

[Grassroots]

I will gladly take a slight risk to my health to go enjoy my life with friends/coworkers/etc.

For the fourteen thousandth f__king time...

You are putting the health (and lives) OF OTHERS at risk, not just your own. You are potentially commiting manslaughter.

Repeat after me folks, 0.5 percent death rate.

[Grassroots]

@ Idiots who think we can't reopen the Summer

[Grassroots]

@ Idiots who think we can't reopen the Summer

Keep putting your foot in your mouth, you'll eventually learn to like the taste.

Data is data.

[Grassroots]

Italy has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 3.

Given recent news, this may be the last extension.

Extremely doubtful. We are in much better shape than Italy and nobody expects the lockdown to end before mid-May the earliest.

Brucejoel is right, they'll probably drop the restrictions on that day. This is the Mediterranean after all.

[Grassroots]

If I were the president, I would do this:

This pandemic acts like a ripple effect in the US. The first states are the quickest to lose the ripple, we can end the lockdowns in those states once they lose their case rates (i'm thinking about Washington and Illinois in particular, New York comes to mind but the huge scope of the impact leads me to think it might need a little more time). The ripple spreads to the later states (TX,GA,FL, other rurals) which haven't peaked yet and are still growing exponentially, we will hold the stay at home order on them.

[Grassroots]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

[Grassroots]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

The millions of people dying in Michigan was an obvious hyperbole, but hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/running-out-of-body-bags-people-dying-in-the-hallway-coronavirus-has-michigan-hospital-workers-at-a-breaking-point.html%3foutputType=amp

Granted, the distribution of the virus isn’t even in Michigan so some parts may be perfectly fine, but plenty of hospitals are struggling.
I usually like your posts, but this one is completely off.

I hesitate to believe an obviously over-exaggerated article over the hard data.

[Grassroots]

Good numbers from today. Lets keep this going, we might just end up peaking out 5ish days early

Just updating UK and France with new predictive graphs.

UK

UK Graph

France

France Graph

UK has some issues with reported data, such as....

I don't see them?

[Grassroots]

A Facebook group of 45,000 people here in Michigan plan to protest the shutdown order at the state capitol this week. Apparently the hospital system becoming overwhelmed and millions of people dying is perfectly acceptable so that people can go back to work.

Hopefully if they do try this the state police will be waiting to arrest them all but another part of me hopes that every one of them gets the virus because that’s what they deserve for their sheer ignorance.

That's a lie on your part, hospitals aren't being overwhelmed in Michigan. Nice try.

I'm not even going to talk about that "millions of people dying" bit because doing so would result in me losing brain cells.

May I suggest that inaccurate hyperbole to such jaw-droppingly moronic actions by this Facebook group is the lesser of evils here by far? If even a tenth of that Facebook group showed up, including the law enforcement security required, contact with essential workers, Etc, it would be likely disastrous. Maybe not 1918 Philadelphia war bonds parade disastrous, but disastrous.

And I question whether this is a time for semantics between whether or not the hospital system in Michigan is overwhelmed verse is merely working its ass to the Bone. The point is a few thousand people deciding to protest quarantine wood really f*** things up for medical care providers in a dangerous, and above all grossly unnecessary way.

I'm not in any way supporting the protesters, opening up things this soon would throw away everything we have been fighting for the past 3 weeks, and especially when victory is almost in our grasp. All I'm doing is clearing up the narrative, that's all.

[Grassroots]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.   

I don't think you understand what herd immunity is. We would need over 70% of the population to get infected for that to happen, and that's exactly what we are trying to avoid.

[Grassroots]

If the lockdowns last too long, we won’t have sufficient herd immunity built up by fall to temper a potentially dangerous second wave.  Getting young, healthy people back into the economy is important for this reason.   

I don't think you understand what herd immunity is. We would need over 70% of the population to get infected for that to happen, and that's exactly what we are trying to avoid.

In the absence of a vaccine, everybody getting infected is the only reliable way we move past this thing.  It’s how every other pandemic in human history has ended. 

Millions would die though, and a vaccine isn't that far off.

[Grassroots]

Today's death toll and new cases are going to be lower than last Sunday's totals on this trajectory.