COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1248098666893754368

There will be so many more stories like this:

Minimized the threat, ignored best practices, got sick and died and put countless others in danger.

[Green Line]

WSJ Opinion:  Virus mortality crashes as economic misery skyrockets.

WSJ should be embarrassed for publishing this dog crap and paying this moron. A journalist and "economist" with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of a waging a "war" on the economy? Get the fkcu out of here with that. I think COVID-19 will be a crystallizing moment for the country, when it finally realizes its had just about enough of the right wing's war on expertise and knowledge.

And yet, doctors with no economic background can insist on shutting down the world for indefinite periods of time, ruining billions of lives in the process, and that's fine because muh M.D.

lmao doctors didn't shut down the world, the virus did

even if you accept that asinine claim at face value, nearly every economist in the US thinks that reopening the economy before the virus is contained for the sake of muh GDP would be bad because... wait for it... an unconstrained virus would further curtail economic activity

Wrong and wrong.

The media shut down the world.  They were grossly irresponsible and parroted BAD models, just like many doctors.  I can find tons of economists who think we are committing national suicide.  Tit for tat.

Of course you know all of this. Day after day, your predictions about how this will all blow over, about how the media is overreacting, get disproven. You repeat the same, unproven talking points which have been argued countless times by numerous users here, and yet you keep going.

This is truly one of the most stunning and ironic things I've ever seen on the internet, coming from the person who has been wailing for over a month now that millions of Americans are about to die.  Nothing I've said has proven to be incorrect, and I never said it was going to "blow over", those are just the made up arguments you fight in your head, lol.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All the scientific studies I’ve been seeing over the past week or so seem to be suggesting that the virus is much more contagious than earlier believed, but also likely much less fatal.

As this evidence mounts, doesn’t this point more and more to the best solution being a controlled effort toward herd immunity, implementing severe but selective social distancing restrictions on the most vulnerable populations, or where is appears the health care system may be overwhelmed?

[It’s so Joever]

WSJ Opinion:  Virus mortality crashes as economic misery skyrockets.

WSJ should be embarrassed for publishing this dog crap and paying this moron. A journalist and "economist" with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of a waging a "war" on the economy? Get the fkcu out of here with that. I think COVID-19 will be a crystallizing moment for the country, when it finally realizes its had just about enough of the right wing's war on expertise and knowledge.

And yet, doctors with no economic background can insist on shutting down the world for indefinite periods of time, ruining billions of lives in the process, and that's fine because muh M.D.

lmao doctors didn't shut down the world, the virus did

even if you accept that asinine claim at face value, nearly every economist in the US thinks that reopening the economy before the virus is contained for the sake of muh GDP would be bad because... wait for it... an unconstrained virus would further curtail economic activity

Wrong and wrong.

The media shut down the world.  They were grossly irresponsible and parroted BAD models, just like many doctors.  I can find tons of economists who think we are committing national suicide.  Tit for tat.

Of course you know all of this. Day after day, your predictions about how this will all blow over, about how the media is overreacting, get disproven. You repeat the same, unproven talking points which have been argued countless times by numerous users here, and yet you keep going.

This is truly one of the most stunning and ironic things I've ever seen on the internet, coming from the person who has been wailing for over a month now that millions of Americans are about to die.  Nothing I've said has proven to be incorrect, and I never said it was going to "blow over", those are just the made up arguments you fight in your head, lol.

Oh dear lord, first of all, my prediction at the beginning of all this back in January was 800,000 recorded deaths Worldwide. About 100,000-200,000 deaths will be American.  I said that if the US sat and did nothing, the collapse of our healthcare system would cause anywhere from 500,000-2 Million  deaths in the long run. If we didn’t have stay-at-home orders in many states, we would be right on track for that right now.
You yourself said the healthcare systems in America would not collapse. Well ask any damned medical professional in New York, Detroit, New Orleans, etc and you will get your answer as to how wonderfully your amazing prediction went.
You also said that anyone who dies of this would likely have died of the flu. That statement alone proved to Atlas you don’t understand basic numbers. The technical mortality rate is 3%, but we all know that is inflated. Most estimates place the death rate at around 1% after all is said and done. Keep in mind that the death rate of the flu is .1%. That is a tenfold difference, in case you didn’t know. Even the most optimistic, outlier studies have the mortality rate at .3-.4%. Now, if this were the mortality rate, and most studies showed that, the entire playing field would be different, but it still would be 3-4 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, making your statement wrong anyways.


As for my own predictions, most of them have actually been pretty spot on.
I predicted Italy would reach a new case per day peak sometime between March 14-21, check Worldometers.
I predicted that a second wave would hit US cities outside of the NYC and Seattle area. Ask New Orleans, Detroit, Philadelphia and in a week, Indianapolis/Washington DC how that went.
I predicted (well not exactly since I was using cruise ship data) that upwards of 50% of Covid-19 patients are asymptomatic.

Are you going to trust the guy who said all this, or the guy who couldn’t tell the difference between a 1/1000 and a 1/100 death rate?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Due to faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Based on faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

Get the virus and see. It's not fun having it

Even if we reopen the economy good luck the the service industry people because people won't show up still

[Calthrina950]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Based on faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

Get the virus and see. It's not fun having it

I thought that I got it a few weeks ago, after having gone to a store near my house where an employee was diagnosed with it. And I thought I may have had it a week or two before that as well. Moreover, a co-worker of mines had a friend who died from it. So for me, this thing has never been a joke. While I think that some of the reaction to it has been over-hyped-hence my condemnations of media sensationalism-I also think that the measures which have been taken were necessary to stem the disease's spread, and in many respects, have succeeded in doing so.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

[forgotten manatee]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Due to faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

You know there’s over 16,000 dead Americans from this right? As in, more than five 9/11s. You have some competition, but I do believe you may be the dumbest person on this forum.

[Badger]

WSJ Opinion:  Virus mortality crashes as economic misery skyrockets.

WSJ should be embarrassed for publishing this dog crap and paying this moron. A journalist and "economist" with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of a waging a "war" on the economy? Get the fkcu out of here with that. I think COVID-19 will be a crystallizing moment for the country, when it finally realizes its had just about enough of the right wing's war on expertise and knowledge.

The way I know when someone doesn't have a true rebuttal to the point is when they start to engage in ad hominem attacks.  Good job.

Re-read the line castigating a journalist and so-called Economist with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of waging a war on the economy. Neither ad hominem oh, you're remotely inaccurate.

The worst part is , no matter how bad the coronavirus toll is, folks like you and Del Tachi will be absolutely insufferable once it passes , claiming you were right all along literally because "not everyone died".

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

The good thing about this crisis is we get to learn some people’s true nature.

[Badger]

WSJ Opinion:  Virus mortality crashes as economic misery skyrockets.

WSJ should be embarrassed for publishing this dog crap and paying this moron. A journalist and "economist" with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of a waging a "war" on the economy? Get the fkcu out of here with that. I think COVID-19 will be a crystallizing moment for the country, when it finally realizes its had just about enough of the right wing's war on expertise and knowledge.

And yet, doctors with no economic background can insist on shutting down the world for indefinite periods of time, ruining billions of lives in the process, and that's fine because muh M.D.

lmao doctors didn't shut down the world, the virus did

even if you accept that asinine claim at face value, nearly every economist in the US thinks that reopening the economy before the virus is contained for the sake of muh GDP would be bad because... wait for it... an unconstrained virus would further curtail economic activity

Wrong and wrong.

The media shut down the world.  They were grossly irresponsible and parroted BAD models, just like many doctors.  I can find tons of economists who think we are committing national suicide.  Tit for tat.

Wow. I honestly didn't think you were capable of a post this irrationally bad.

Bravo?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1248098666893754368

There will be so many more stories like this:

Minimized the threat, ignored best practices, got sick and died and put countless others in danger.

There are some judges being similarly idiotic out here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

This is easily the most stupid ‘event’ I have lived through. Reopen the US economy.

Tens of millions unemployed, with half a billion worldwide being plummeted into poverty. Due to faulty and erroneous data. All for what?

You know there’s over 16,000 dead Americans from this right? As in, more than five 9/11s. You have some competition, but I do believe you may be the dumbest person on this forum.

False equivalency.

And those numbers are grossly inaccurate (inflated).

[GeorgiaModerate]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

Tens of millions unemployed. A 10% spike in unemployment leads to 70,000 additional suicides. Half a billion worldwide plummeted into poverty.

Yeah, I think that’s a lot worse than the virus itself.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

Trust me on this. There won't be any. There can't be any. There shan't be any.

Not gonna happen.

[brucejoel99]

What seems likely is that we will pull back some stay-at-home measures by around the end of April, as deaths seem to peak and political pressure mounts. Within a few weeks, new hot spots will emerge. What then?

No new hot spots will emerge then.

You are amazingly overconfident.

Trust me on this. There won't be any. There can't be any. There shan't be any.

Not gonna happen.

And if you're wrong?

[Meclazine for Israel]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

No, you have missed what I was trying to say. The testing needs to be measured relative to the cases in that country.

Country-Specific Testing Results (% of positive cases)

1.9% Australia
2.2% South Korea
9.0% Germany
19.9% USA (Only testing people with symptoms)

16.8% Italy
21.8% UK
35.3% France
43.2% Spain

Saying that Australia and Italy have the same testing rate per million is not relevant as you can see above.

My point is that we need to look at countries where we have testing in the broader population (without symptoms) if we are going to see effective analysis overall. This is especially true for something like antibody results for example.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

The danger of corona panic is asymetrically different from the danger of corona. The danger stems from humanity's tendency to behave like lemmings, to seek out worst-case-scenarios, and take the mindset of better-safe-than-sorry too far. Corona is generally not a lethal disease - and it's not going to kill a million people in this country. The nation has weathered worse crises before. The Civil War was much, much more critical than corona ever had the potential to become, and the Great Depression is in a similar boat.
When we act based off of fear and veer into self-harming territory via overreacting to potential bad scenarios, we frequently deal more harm than we were facing originally.

[It’s so Joever]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

“My dad served in Walmart back in the ‘20s, he died during the 3rd battle of the toilet paper section. As he innocently was doing his job, hundreds of redcaps and karens stormed the Walmart, with no mercy. He died after being trampled by a mob of about 4,000. Each time I see the Walmart logo, I can’t help but think it should have been me!”

[Skill and Chance]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

Suicide hotline calls are reportedly way up over spring baselines, so it unfortunately isn't 0.  There will also be people afraid to go to the ER for something unrelated to COVID-19 that seems like a moderate emergency but turns fatal the next day.  

However, I highly doubt this adds up to 10's of thousands of people, and even if it did, given how nonlinear the COVID transmission process is, it almost surely was net benefit to overreact to it.  If we did substantially less (say 50% reduction in activity), we would probably have 100's of thousands of COVID deaths, and with complete business as usual (treating it like we treat seasonal flu), plausibly millions of COVID deaths.  Think of it as causing a recession to avoid a World War.