COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't it the perception of where economy is going (near election) day that matters?

[...]

Maybe, although one of the studies mentioned Q2 as being the most important. Can't find a link to it right now. Either way, how much of a rebound are we talking? Will the GDP recovery still be notably less than where it started? The drops we are seeing are so incredible that perhaps it overshadows the fact that plunging two dozen points and then surging about 70% of the way back is still a large drop overall. You're still going to have a lot of people whose livelihoods have been hurt, or maybe are still even out of a job, or have gotten a new job that pays less and/or has less benefits. And this is all assuming we have some sort of instant recovery. What if this stretches out into the summer? It's pretty easy to see America walking into election day with high unemployment and a very muted recovery - if it's even ongoing at that point.

Your guess is as good as mine, but there are enough studies to show that unless this country quickly makes the biggest and fastest recovery possibly ever, that the GOP is in for a world of hurt.

The most important question is, who does the public blame? The real answer "Trump partially, but China more" is probably much too complicated for the public to digest. And if Trump does fail at pinning it on China, then his best bet is saying Ds would have handled it worse (judging from Biden calling the ban on travel to China racist and other stuff). Will the nation accept that? It's much too early to tell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excessive corona panic is more dangerous than coronavirus itself.

How many people have been killed by "corona panic"?

The danger of corona panic is asymetrically different from the danger of corona. The danger stems from humanity's tendency to behave like lemmings, to seek out worst-case-scenarios, and take the mindset of better-safe-than-sorry too far. Corona is generally not a lethal disease - and it's not going to kill a million people in this country. The nation has weathered worse crises before. The Civil War was much, much more critical than corona ever had the potential to become, and the Great Depression is in a similar boat.
When we act based off of fear and veer into self-harming territory via overreacting to potential bad scenarios, we frequently deal more harm than we were facing originally.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If these lockdowns last long enough, there will not BE enough such testing, nor sufficient medical care for those who need it the most - the money won't be there to do it enough to give them ideal aid. The economy would have crashed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the number of fatalities in people below 25 is that low, then from a policy perspective its functionally 0.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1248365705503932420

Not an indictment on you, GM, but I'm just a little confused on where Cate is getting "hundreds" from -- maybe he's referring to confirmed cases?

According to the CDC's provisional breakdown, there has been five COVID-deaths in the U.S. in people aged twenty-five and under.  

What is known about these 5? What were their characteristics? How many of them lacked an at-risk factor?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the number of fatalities in people below 25 is that low, then from a policy perspective its functionally 0.

Not if you're a governor deciding whether to re-open your state's schools...

Only in a small, small state. 5 is a very tiny number compared to how many people attend the school system.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the number of fatalities in people below 25 is that low, then from a policy perspective its functionally 0.

Not if you're a governor deciding whether to re-open your state's schools...

Only in a small, small state. 5 is a very tiny number compared to how many people attend the school system.

And when people are howling for DeSantis's head because children (doesn't matter how many) are dying, do you recommend he tell the grieving families that it was "functionally zero from a policy perspective"? To say nothing of all the people over 25 who are needed to teach the children...

If I were DeSantis, I would choose a policy not rooted in paranoia and then explain it as tactfully as possible.
I would also not punish truancy in these circumstances either.
But in general this disease kills very few young people, so treating schools as some death ground where huge numbers of kids will die from corona is going into Chicken Little territory. Comparitively very few young people with no at-risk factors are actually at risk of dying from this thing.
Remote teaching might still be advisable in a wide range of cases, but not because of the risk of children dying, which is statistically insignificant (younger people with stuff like asthma is an entirely different story). It should be done to help teachers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you are young, lack an ailment that would make your lungs less functional, and your main worry is dying from corona, your priorities are likely to be wildly misplaced. Focus ought to be on those who are older and whom you interact with on some basis, especially older people, particularly grandparents. Worry about being a carrier.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1249004396278616065

It makes sense we have had the worst response to the coronavirus in the world, since we have the misfortune of having a President who is among the worst we have ever had since the founding of our republic. 

I still think Bush is worse than Trump, so I really can't agree entirely with this post. But Trump is certainly retarding the overall coronavirus response.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1249042597835870215
For now, Bush #43 and Trump are the worst POTUS in this century.

Which is meaningless because there have been only 3 presidents this century.

Well, you could claim for there to be 4, but you do have a good point. Small time frames, past a certain point, result in small sample sizes, which makes comparisons less useful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES/status/1249042597835870215
For now, Bush #43 and Trump are the worst POTUS in this century.

Which is meaningless because there have been only 3 presidents this century.

Well, you could claim for there to be 4, but you do have a good point. Small time frames, past a certain point, result in small sample sizes, which makes comparisons less useful.

Donald Trump's term to date is easily the worst of any resident in the White House since the Civil War. He's highly likely to rapidly end up as the worst in history once he's gone.

I am just uncomfortable with that line of thought, even leaving aside my utter dislike of Bush II. You and I don't know the future; a president worse than Trump is clearly in the realm of possibility. We need to be mindful of recency bias; Trump's heinous actions are now, while other bad president's actions were in the past, and as such we weigh Trump's sins more heavily. Its also the fact that Trump's been rather ineffective legislatively, which has some modicum of limiting the overall damage he has dealt the country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well the historians who rank Presidents always have him in the bottom 5, including the conservative ones. So there's that.

Indeed. Trump will remain near the bottom for at least a while I suspect. But lowest rank is extremely competitive.
Only time will tell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1250209491372687360

The GOP doesn't realize that letting the economy crater will only increase coronavirus-related deaths due to government being overwhelmed.
The Democratic party doesn't realize that letting the economy crater will only increase coronavirus-related deaths due to government being overwhelmed.
Thank you partisan polarization.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1250209491372687360

The GOP doesn't realize that letting the economy crater will only increase coronavirus-related deaths due to government being overwhelmed.
The Democratic party doesn't realize that letting the economy crater will only increase coronavirus-related deaths due to government being overwhelmed.
Thank you partisan polarization.

Nice to see you're becoming another bronz...your both sideism is getting old

Unlike you I'm not letting my political sympathies determine how I perceive Corona. I'm thinking for myself.

K keep telling yourself that, if you want to be idiotic go somewhere else.

There's no use in keeping this back-and-forth up, I wouldn't want to burden the mods. Just going to wish you luck on your recovery from COVID-19. Have a nice day, and please do consider what what economists have been saying would happen in a severe economic contraction.

I mean you want to start with me then run away so don't play this game with me stop being a chickensh!t

If I intended to start some sort of game of chicken then I would have left some loose threads in that post. Instead I wrapped things up in the most polite and respectful way possible. That was intended to be my final message to you in this conversation. Now THIS is going to be my final post in said conversation. Thank you for your time and sayonara.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Indeed the media has not been all that helpful in this crisis, caring more about ratings than actually helping the public keep the right balance between worry and confidence. They are far from alone in not helping in this department however.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These people are idiots. Downright idiots.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1250609090692362240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Gah. Why.
Selling your idea as having the spreading of coronavirus as a very key compenent of your idea at the same time people are afraid of a spread of coronavirus is the kind of proposal you'd expect from a politician who has just undergone a lobotomy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

Yes, and droplet infection, like being nearby someone who is coughing and breathing in their large droplets (which is different from airborne, which is when the virus suspends in the air for a long period of time & can travel many meters).

So the difference between droplet infection and airborne is if I am sitting next to someone and this person exhaled, whereas it'd be airborne if they sneezed a  few times in a room with little airflow out of it and then a few hours later I arrived in the room and inhaled the air in it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some potential good news, if this study is right.

Study of 1,200 cases claims that an overwhelming amount (80%) involved indoor transmission between family members, public transportation was involved in the second largest share (34%), but very little outdoor transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf+html

Suggests while airborne transmission is possible, it is not the main source of transmission. The only problem I have with this study is potential selection effects. Cases are more likely to be connected to each other as part of a single outbreak if transmitted among family.

If this study was correct, then what would in general be the most common mode of transmission? People touching things?

It would be people living together at home, in close quarters.

So basically large numbers of people touching the same substances then? (Which is probably hand transmission by proxy?)

Yes, and droplet infection, like being nearby someone who is coughing and breathing in their large droplets (which is different from airborne, which is when the virus suspends in the air for a long period of time & can travel many meters).

So the difference between droplet infection and airborne is if I am sitting next to someone and this person exhaled, whereas it'd be airborne if they sneezed a  few times in a room with little airflow out of it and then a few hours later I arrived in the room and inhaled the air in it?

If this were verified it would mean the park/trail closures are highly counterproductive.

indeed, if this were the case, then we ought to open up the natural parks as soon as is feasible, given the updated science on the matter.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

can we not

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Droplet is main transmission way, here are weeks expert tell so
touching items, where droplet landing, is a way but is not so easy and with the right prevention  measure, wash hand and not touch mouth, nose and eyes, is improbable
also if virus can stay also days on some surface at the right condition, it loss its viral load with the passage of time

And what maximizes the survival chances if you DO have corona?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't understand why Trump is so resistant to increasing testing.  This is by far the easiest avenue to a safe reopening.  And unlike continued lockdown, I don't see what the social or economic downside is.

The only thing I can think of is that he just want to look like he is doing something to address the virus, but actually wants to crises to continue as long as possible so he can have an excuse to try to cancel the election.

I think the explanation is quite simple. He wants case numbers to be lower to rob his opponents of ammunition to claim he's doing a bad job. The simplest and easiest way to reduce the number of confirmed cases is to restrict testing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remdesivir major result today is positive from a sample of 125 severe patients in Chicago. I have a good feeling about this drug.

They need to approve it right now. There is absolutely no excuse why this is not approved yet.

Duterte pushing some sort of insufficiently tested drug in the Phillipines during a disease outbreak some years ago is just one example of the dangers of putting insufficiently tested drugs into use.
The situation in regards to coronavirus is far from bad enough to meet the extremely high threshold to make this sort of decision justified.