COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GerryConnolly/status/1248334335658336256
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1238590988593086464

[FrancoAgo]

No, you have missed what I was trying to say. The testing needs to be measured relative to the cases in that country.

Country-Specific Testing Results (% of positive cases)

1.9% Australia
2.2% South Korea
9.0% Germany
19.9% USA (Only testing people with symptoms)

16.8% Italy
21.8% UK
35.3% France
43.2% Spain

Saying that Australia and Italy have the same testing rate per million is not relevant as you can see above.

My point is that we need to look at countries where we have testing in the broader population (without symptoms) if we are going to see effective analysis overall. This is especially true for something like antibody results for example.

So you tell if we look countries with low positive % on the tests, we can assume there is few underestimation of positive and the fatality rate is more on target, ever if there are no problem in the count of the deaths

[Meclazine for Israel]

Looking at it a little further, I suspect that Cate may have gotten his "hundreds of deaths" from this WP article: Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows.  It finds "at least 759 people under age 50" have died as of April 8, breaking it down to "at least 45 deaths among people in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among people in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among people in their 40s."  Under 25 is a much lower cutoff, obviously.  Also interestingly, the WP finds at least 9 deaths under age 20, in contrast to the CDC's 5.

The real question is the motive behind posting these tweets:

(a) for the scientific betterment of this thread; or
(b) support a pre-disposed political bias.

What were you hoping to achieve with these tweets, regardless of their now proven 'fake news' status?

It would be more useful for the thread if we did not have an echo chamber of anti-Trump bias tainting the credibility of the data presented.

Otherwise we just end up with 150,000 posts on this forum of people crying like a bleeting sheep, and no quality discussion surrounding the science behind the virus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

No, you have missed what I was trying to say. The testing needs to be measured relative to the cases in that country.

Country-Specific Testing Results (% of positive cases)

1.9% Australia
2.2% South Korea
9.0% Germany
19.9% USA (Only testing people with symptoms)

16.8% Italy
21.8% UK
35.3% France
43.2% Spain

Saying that Australia and Italy have the same testing rate per million is not relevant as you can see above.

My point is that we need to look at countries where we have testing in the broader population (without symptoms) if we are going to see effective analysis overall. This is especially true for something like antibody results for example.

So you tell if we look countries with low positive % on the tests, we can assume there is few underestimation of positive and the fatality rate is more on target, ever if there are no problem in the count of the deaths

I think in science there is a better way to do this.

You post up what you think is happening. Graph it up and we will take a look.

Data
Interpretation
Results

Just include your local experience from Italy as i am sure the people here would love to hear about both your scientific ideas and your personal experience.

I know for a fact the international media are not reporting correctly on what is happening inside Italy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No, you have missed what I was trying to say. The testing needs to be measured relative to the cases in that country.

Country-Specific Testing Results (% of positive cases)

1.9% Australia
2.2% South Korea
9.0% Germany
19.9% USA (Only testing people with symptoms)

16.8% Italy
21.8% UK
35.3% France
43.2% Spain

Saying that Australia and Italy have the same testing rate per million is not relevant as you can see above.

My point is that we need to look at countries where we have testing in the broader population (without symptoms) if we are going to see effective analysis overall. This is especially true for something like antibody results for example.

So you tell if we look countries with low positive % on the tests, we can assume there is few underestimation of positive and the fatality rate is more on target, ever if there are no problem in the count of the deaths

I think in science there is a better way to do this.

You post up what you think is happening. Graph it up and we will take a look.

Just include your local experience from Italy as i am sure the people here would love to hear about both your scientific ideas and your personal experience.

I know for a fact the international media are not reporting correctly on what is happening inside Italy.

What's your sourcing, Meclazine? Not that I doubt you, but what's your sourcing?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at it a little further, I suspect that Cate may have gotten his "hundreds of deaths" from this WP article: Hundreds of young Americans have now been killed by the coronavirus, data shows.  It finds "at least 759 people under age 50" have died as of April 8, breaking it down to "at least 45 deaths among people in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among people in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among people in their 40s."  Under 25 is a much lower cutoff, obviously.  Also interestingly, the WP finds at least 9 deaths under age 20, in contrast to the CDC's 5.

The real question is the motive behind posting these tweets:

(a) for the scientific betterment of this thread; or
(b) support a pre-disposed political bias.

What were you hoping to achieve with these tweets, regardless of their now proven 'fake news' status?

It would be more useful for the thread if we did not have an echo chamber of anti-Trump bias tainting the credibility of the data presented.

Otherwise we just end up with 150,000 posts on this forum of people crying like a bleeting sheep, and no quality discussion surrounding the science behind the virus can grow.

I posted it as an example of Ron DeSantis downplaying the seriousness of the virus, something he has done consistently, and which is a bad thing for the governor of a state that has been affected as much as Florida is.  This is relevant to discussion of government response to the crisis (state government in this case), something we have been discussing throughout these threads in addition to the scientific aspects.

But I'd like to ask you a counter question: why did you mention "anti-Trump bias" when asking me about this?  Nowhere did I mention Trump in the post, and neither did the tweet.  If you're concerned about knee-jerk responses in the thread, perhaps you should start with your own.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What's your sourcing, Meclazine? Not that I doubt you, but what's your sourcing?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51819624

That took literally 4 seconds. I read this stuff every day.

And i know from overseas travel that the only people who know about the ground conditions in Italy will be the Italian people like Franco.

That is why this forum is so powerful.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What's your sourcing, Meclazine? Not that I doubt you, but what's your sourcing?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51819624

That took literally 4 seconds. I read this stuff every day.

And i know from overseas travel that the only people who know about the ground conditions in Italy will be the Italian people like Franco.

That is why this forum is so powerful.

No need to be defensive.  It wasn't an attack on you, I promise lol. 

[Badger]

I just noticed that Trump's grandfather Frederick Trump was one of the early deaths of Spanish flu in the weak 1st wave.

"I didn't know people died from the flu." — Frederick Trump’s grandson, March 8th 2020

I was watching an animated history series on YouTube the other night called extra history. Brilliant stuff. They did a series on the 1918 flu epidemic several months ago. In their last episode when discussing the long-range effects of the epidemic, they mentioned how an individual inherited a sizable Fortune from their father who died and use that to start a real estate Empire, and that person's name was of course Frederick Trump. Interesting.

And also an unbelievable, no, make that completely consistent, sociopathic level lack of empathy or awareness by the mango Mussolini.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/LeeChatfield/status/1248323994350215169

Michigan Speaker of the House breaks with Gov. Whitmer on extended stay-at-home guidelines adopted yesterday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/LeeChatfield/status/1248323994350215169

Michigan Speaker of the House breaks with Gov. Whitmer on extended stay-at-home guidelines adopted yesterday.

More proof that Republicans are the pro-Coronavirus party.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/LeeChatfield/status/1248323994350215169

Michigan Speaker of the House breaks with Gov. Whitmer on extended stay-at-home guidelines adopted yesterday.

More proof that Republicans are the pro-Coronavirus party.

It has no better friend than the Republicans that apparently want nothing more than a rampant pandemic to sweep the country. We're only fortunate that enough Republican Governors are competent and reasonable.

[PSOL]

The MTA’s COVID19 Response Is Killing NYC Workers

As the Coronavirus crisis worsens, massive numbers of workers who cannot afford to isolate themselves are forced to ride packed NYC subway cars, with untold numbers becoming ill from the overcrowding. This is a result of the massive cuts to the city’s mass transit service, which were made despite the need for social distancing. City transit workers are finally getting some protective gear, but it is far too little too late for the 41 workers who have already died and the more than 1,100 who have contracted the virus. And there is no protective gear supplied to the people who have to keep riding the trains during the pandemic.

As early as March 19, it was publicly announced that 23 MTA workers — who work in the city and in the broader metropolitan area — had tested positive for the Coronavirus. At least three of those workers were stationed at the Fresh Pond Bus Depot in Queens. The workers’ union, TWU local 100, called on the MTA to “arrange for expedited testing of its front-line employees and to consider taking additional aggressive steps to protect them.”  The MTA Chairman and CEO Patrick J. Foyle replied that the employees who had been in direct contact with the three Fresh Pond workers were in quarantine and that workplaces would be “immediately and aggressively disinfected,” assuring the workers that more tests would be made available.

Yet an MTA memo issued the same day posted in a Brooklyn bus depot bluntly stated: “Attn Bus Operators: As per AGM [name redacted], facemasks are not to be issued to you.”

How many more people have to die before realization and change are to be made that the insistence on following the business friendly solution is not one favorable to the public, that there are mechanisms and institutions in place that should not be run to be maximized to the benefit of the few elite of this nation, much less New York.

[Del Tachi]

The MTA’s COVID19 Response Is Killing NYC Workers

As the Coronavirus crisis worsens, massive numbers of workers who cannot afford to isolate themselves are forced to ride packed NYC subway cars, with untold numbers becoming ill from the overcrowding. This is a result of the massive cuts to the city’s mass transit service, which were made despite the need for social distancing. City transit workers are finally getting some protective gear, but it is far too little too late for the 41 workers who have already died and the more than 1,100 who have contracted the virus. And there is no protective gear supplied to the people who have to keep riding the trains during the pandemic.

As early as March 19, it was publicly announced that 23 MTA workers — who work in the city and in the broader metropolitan area — had tested positive for the Coronavirus. At least three of those workers were stationed at the Fresh Pond Bus Depot in Queens. The workers’ union, TWU local 100, called on the MTA to “arrange for expedited testing of its front-line employees and to consider taking additional aggressive steps to protect them.”  The MTA Chairman and CEO Patrick J. Foyle replied that the employees who had been in direct contact with the three Fresh Pond workers were in quarantine and that workplaces would be “immediately and aggressively disinfected,” assuring the workers that more tests would be made available.

Yet an MTA memo issued the same day posted in a Brooklyn bus depot bluntly stated: “Attn Bus Operators: As per AGM [name redacted], facemasks are not to be issued to you.”

How many more people have to die before realization and change are to be made that the insistence on following the business friendly solution is not one favorable to the public, that there are mechanisms and institutions in place that should not be run to be maximized to the benefit of the few elite of this nation, much less New York.

The MTA is run to the benefit of the few elite in this nation?  when 55% of New York households don't have a car?

[GeorgiaModerate]

A short article that makes the case that easing restrictions won't automatically restart the economy, because people won't start going out again until they feel safe in doing so:

...the essential variable in “flattening the curve” isn’t central planning but behavior change. Many businesses closed down well before they were ordered to. Millions of people practiced social distancing and refused to get on planes not because they were commanded to, but because they were convinced this was a wise course of action for themselves and their loved ones.
...
Information doesn’t just come from governments. The death tolls in Italy and New York probably did more to change behavior on the ground than all of Trump’s press conferences or Dr. Anthony Fauci’s TV appearances.

And this raises another complication for those who think the government can just “re-open” the economy with the flick of a switch. Trump and all of the governors could lift the stay-at-home orders and federal advisories tomorrow. That wouldn’t necessarily fill the restaurants, airplanes or stadiums. People would still need to be convinced it’s safe. Such persuasion comes via clear, believable information, not orders from on high.

https://thedispatch.com/p/central-planning-hasnt-flattened

[PSOL]

The MTA’s COVID19 Response Is Killing NYC Workers

As the Coronavirus crisis worsens, massive numbers of workers who cannot afford to isolate themselves are forced to ride packed NYC subway cars, with untold numbers becoming ill from the overcrowding. This is a result of the massive cuts to the city’s mass transit service, which were made despite the need for social distancing. City transit workers are finally getting some protective gear, but it is far too little too late for the 41 workers who have already died and the more than 1,100 who have contracted the virus. And there is no protective gear supplied to the people who have to keep riding the trains during the pandemic.

As early as March 19, it was publicly announced that 23 MTA workers — who work in the city and in the broader metropolitan area — had tested positive for the Coronavirus. At least three of those workers were stationed at the Fresh Pond Bus Depot in Queens. The workers’ union, TWU local 100, called on the MTA to “arrange for expedited testing of its front-line employees and to consider taking additional aggressive steps to protect them.”  The MTA Chairman and CEO Patrick J. Foyle replied that the employees who had been in direct contact with the three Fresh Pond workers were in quarantine and that workplaces would be “immediately and aggressively disinfected,” assuring the workers that more tests would be made available.

Yet an MTA memo issued the same day posted in a Brooklyn bus depot bluntly stated: “Attn Bus Operators: As per AGM [name redacted], facemasks are not to be issued to you.”

How many more people have to die before realization and change are to be made that the insistence on following the business friendly solution is not one favorable to the public, that there are mechanisms and institutions in place that should not be run to be maximized to the benefit of the few elite of this nation, much less New York.

The MTA is run to the benefit of the few elite in this nation?  when 55% of New York households don't have a car?

I’m saying that the people running it are not looking out for the users of it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The MTA’s COVID19 Response Is Killing NYC Workers

As the Coronavirus crisis worsens, massive numbers of workers who cannot afford to isolate themselves are forced to ride packed NYC subway cars, with untold numbers becoming ill from the overcrowding. This is a result of the massive cuts to the city’s mass transit service, which were made despite the need for social distancing. City transit workers are finally getting some protective gear, but it is far too little too late for the 41 workers who have already died and the more than 1,100 who have contracted the virus. And there is no protective gear supplied to the people who have to keep riding the trains during the pandemic.

As early as March 19, it was publicly announced that 23 MTA workers — who work in the city and in the broader metropolitan area — had tested positive for the Coronavirus. At least three of those workers were stationed at the Fresh Pond Bus Depot in Queens. The workers’ union, TWU local 100, called on the MTA to “arrange for expedited testing of its front-line employees and to consider taking additional aggressive steps to protect them.”  The MTA Chairman and CEO Patrick J. Foyle replied that the employees who had been in direct contact with the three Fresh Pond workers were in quarantine and that workplaces would be “immediately and aggressively disinfected,” assuring the workers that more tests would be made available.

Yet an MTA memo issued the same day posted in a Brooklyn bus depot bluntly stated: “Attn Bus Operators: As per AGM [name redacted], facemasks are not to be issued to you.”

How many more people have to die before realization and change are to be made that the insistence on following the business friendly solution is not one favorable to the public, that there are mechanisms and institutions in place that should not be run to be maximized to the benefit of the few elite of this nation, much less New York.

The MTA is run to the benefit of the few elite in this nation?  when 55% of New York households don't have a car?

I’m saying that the people running it are not looking out for the users of it.

What exactly do you want the MTA to do?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The problem with people who presume that the restrictions are killing the economy is that they fail to understand that absent these restrictions, large number of people would not be attending or participating in risky economic activity.

Furthermore from a liability standpoint. How can you hold a concert, or a business conference in a world without the stay at home orders? You couldn't even begin to cover that liability, no insurance company on earth would cover that risk. No business would want to risk being sued into oblivion by people once they get infected.

With or without the stay at home orders and mitigation, the economy was going to get wrecked and until you get the virus under control and gone, you cannot conduct business. Not because the government won't allow you to, but because you literally cannot afford conduct business in this environment. Either you won't have any customers or you get sued into oblivion, or both.

I don't understand why the critics of the mitigation strategy don't account for this aspect of the economic effects of the virus.

[Skill and Chance]

The problem with people who presume that the restrictions are killing the economy is that they fail to understand that absent these restrictions, large number of people would not be attending or participating in risky economic activity.

Furthermore from a liability standpoint. How can you hold a concert, or a business conference in a world without the stay at home orders? You couldn't even begin to cover that liability, no insurance company on earth would cover that risk. No business would want to risk being sued into oblivion by people once they get infected.

With or without the stay at home orders and mitigation, the economy was going to get wrecked and until you get the virus under control and gone, you cannot conduct business. Not because the government won't allow you to, but because you literally cannot afford conduct business in this environment. Either you won't have any customers or you get sued into oblivion, or both.

I don't understand why the critics of the mitigation strategy don't account for this aspect of the economic effects of the virus.

This is all very true.  Tech companies on the West Coast went work-from-home in late February.  At least 2/3rds of the population was already reducing their activity in early March.  Insurers will balk at letting unvaccinated people into stadiums and convention centers. 

Where the restrictions had the most impact was 1. closing schools and 2. activities that involve 10's of people in a building rather than 100's or 1000's. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My business lost 75% of its business 4 weeks before we had the stay at home order it was like night and day. Even if we reopen the economy theres a good chance most people still wont go out

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

Let's not forget that (D) president would not stop flights from China because muh xenophobic, and what exponential growth would mean together with incompetence of (D) NY officials.

Trump's wise decision probably saved [ten] thousands of lives of his native NYC and in US 🙏🙏🙏

That is just an assumption not backed up by facts.

The actual facts are that Trump and the government he leads screwed up the testing and allowed the virus to circulate unchecked in the country until it was too late. So now we had to screw our economy to get this thing under control. Trump can redeem himself if he can ramp up testing and medical supplies by May 1st so we can get the economy opened up again. And we better be prepared when the second wave hits, whether that is in May after the country is opened, or in September/October as the weather gets colder. If we aren't prepared a second time Trump will get drubbed in the election.

Haha, I asked you about the sources of your assumption that "government he leads screwed up the testing" and I still haven't got anything.


IMO, as I said, there was a structural problem with CDC and stockpiling of chemicals. It doesn't depend on who is in WH.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/us-coronavirus-tests-invs/index.html
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/

So if you think Hillary would do any better, you have to assume that she would start to stockpile chemicals in 2016 and override Fauci/CDC in 2020. IMO, not realistic at all.

The fact is that Trump restricted flights from China, which probably explains a ~2 week lag from Europe. The fact is it was against experts' advice and was his nationalistic hunch. He was criticized by experts, Democrats and their Media, so (D) president likely wouldn't do it.


German economy is likely to be initially screwed even more by the way (because of higher reliance on exports, perhaps).

Trump owns this, for good or for bad. There is still a long way to go till November. His actions from now until then will matter a lot. He needs to make sure the government is functioning efficiently from now on. If we can't get our testing capability along with our ability to contain local outbreaks through contact tracing and local lockdowns, we will be back here again in a few months and then the people will be really pissed.

[Grassroots]

My business lost 75% of its business 4 weeks before we had the stay at home order it was like night and day. Even if we reopen the economy theres a good chance most people still wont go out

For a little bit at least.

[It’s so Joever]

The virus doesn’t kill that many people, we should reopen the economy because otherwise millions of people will die. Covid-19 is not that bad of a disease.
(This was an obvious troll post. Lol at Mr Reactionary for actually taking it seriously)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The virus doesn’t kill that many people, we should reopen the economy because otherwise millions of people will die. Covid-19 is not that bad of a disease.

*Going down signature checklist*

Man, I am a TERRIBLE person...

[PSOL]

snip

For one; the MTA should listen to TWU 100’s suggestions of providing PPE to the conductors and to enforce standards and regulations to lessen the spread of transmission.

The virus doesn’t kill that many people, we should reopen the economy because otherwise millions of people will die. Covid-19 is not that bad of a disease.

Dear god, it sounds just like them. I’m actually f•••in’ scared that these people have more sway in society then most of us here.