COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[brucejoel99]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

[brucejoel99]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

No.  Bad.  Very, very bad.  This will just lead to more panic buying, which means more people will turn up to shop, which will now translate into long lines outside grocery stores (4 hrs wait for milk and eggs?), which means even *more panic buying.

This is the truly apocalyptic, society-ending stuff.  Not having to share a ventilator.

The hoarding days have already passed (at least in my area). People have realized that they can still get stuff from (essential) stores even when under lockdown, so the hoarding seems to have stopped pretty quickly, evidenced by their thinking sensibly rather than panic buying.

[brucejoel99]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

No.  Bad.  Very, very bad.  This will just lead to more panic buying, which means more people will turn up to shop, which will now translate into long lines outside grocery stores (4 hrs wait for milk and eggs?), which means even *more panic buying.

This is the truly apocalyptic, society-ending stuff.  Not having to share a ventilator.

The hoarding days have already pass (at least in my area). People have realized that they can still get stuff from (essential) stores even when under lockdown, so the hoarding seems to have stopped pretty quickly, evidenced by their thinking sensibly rather than panic buying.

Yes, people have stopped hoarding (mostly, some staple items seem perpetually low) but that's only because they've seen stores stay open and their access hasn't been an issue.  As soon as people have to start waiting in actual breadlines that sense of security will be completely erased.

This (especially with the qualifier "actual") doesn't mean what you think it means.

Pull yourself together. This isn't even bad, let alone anywhere nearly as much as you claim it is.

[brucejoel99]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

No.  Bad.  Very, very bad.  This will just lead to more panic buying, which means more people will turn up to shop, which will now translate into long lines outside grocery stores (4 hrs wait for milk and eggs?), which means even *more panic buying.

This is the truly apocalyptic, society-ending stuff.  Not having to share a ventilator.

The hoarding days have already pass (at least in my area). People have realized that they can still get stuff from (essential) stores even when under lockdown, so the hoarding seems to have stopped pretty quickly, evidenced by their thinking sensibly rather than panic buying.

Yes, people have stopped hoarding (mostly, some staple items seem perpetually low) but that's only because they've seen stores stay open and their access hasn't been an issue.  As soon as people have to start waiting in actual breadlines that sense of security will be completely erased.

Do you have any data/evidence to back those assertions or are they more of those famed speculations (AKA "Hunches")?

"Tremendous hunches. The best hunches."

[brucejoel99]

Surprised this hasn't been talked about yet in the thread, but Walmart an Target are rolling out new social distancing measures tomorrow limiting stores to 20% capacity.

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1246277075100749824

Good, the grocery store seems to be the one place you can't avoid people who don't have a mask & blatantly disregard social distancing protocols.

No.  Bad.  Very, very bad.  This will just lead to more panic buying, which means more people will turn up to shop, which will now translate into long lines outside grocery stores (4 hrs wait for milk and eggs?), which means even *more panic buying.

This is the truly apocalyptic, society-ending stuff.  Not having to share a ventilator.

The hoarding days have already pass (at least in my area). People have realized that they can still get stuff from (essential) stores even when under lockdown, so the hoarding seems to have stopped pretty quickly, evidenced by their thinking sensibly rather than panic buying.

Yes, people have stopped hoarding (mostly, some staple items seem perpetually low) but that's only because they've seen stores stay open and their access hasn't been an issue.  As soon as people have to start waiting in actual breadlines that sense of security will be completely erased.

Do you have any data/evidence to back those assertions or are they more of those famed speculations (AKA "Hunches")?

I don't guess you've ever lived through a hurricane or other large, natural disaster where supply and distribution chains are actually disrupted and looting/violence become problematic.  Living through Hurricane Katrina hasn't afforded me the same opportunity.

Good thing that's no longer what's happening here, then.

Panic buying is already a *major, major problem (and so far is actually a bigger problem than anything we've seen on the healthcare side).

Sometimes I read these things and wonder.

A temporary shortage of toilet paper or eggs is a bigger problem than people dying?

Hmmm.

I guess when it really comes down to it, when the going gets tough, and when push comes to shove, when you turn 100 years old and look back on your life, what really maters in end is not actually friends and family, but whether you always had enough toilet paper and whether you had to go even a single week without a carton of eggs.

Panic buying is a huge problem insomuch as people are *panicked and thus become more likely to do stupid things, and supply/distribution chains are already under extreme stress due to disrupted production, reduced transit, fallen commodity prices, and close to 10 million newly unemployed in the U.S. alone.

I'm not worried about a "temporary shortage of toilet paper or eggs".  I've been dealing with that for weeks.  I'm worried about the reaction masses of people will have to decreased access to grocery stores and supermarkets, and how that reaction could escalate beyond the so-far relatively stable social conditions we've been seeing.  If you can't understand the difference then that's on you.

> "I've been dealing with [a "temporary shortage of toilet paper or eggs"] for weeks."

> "the so-far relatively stable social conditions we've been seeing"

Pick one.

[brucejoel99]

Panic buying is already a *major, major problem (and so far is actually a bigger problem than anything we've seen on the healthcare side).

Sometimes I read these things and wonder.

A temporary shortage of toilet paper or eggs is a bigger problem than people dying?

Hmmm.

I guess when it really comes down to it, when the going gets tough, and when push comes to shove, when you turn 100 years old and look back on your life, what really maters in end is not actually friends and family, but whether you always had enough toilet paper and whether you had to go even a single week without a carton of eggs.

Panic buying is a huge problem insomuch as people are *panicked and thus become more likely to do stupid things, and supply/distribution chains are already under extreme stress due to disrupted production, reduced transit, fallen commodity prices, and close to 10 million newly unemployed in the U.S. alone.

I'm not worried about a "temporary shortage of toilet paper or eggs".  I've been dealing with that for weeks.  I'm worried about the reaction masses of people will have to decreased access to grocery stores and supermarkets, and how that reaction could escalate beyond the so-far relatively stable social conditions we've been seeing.  If you can't understand the difference then that's on you.

> "I've been dealing with [a "temporary shortage of toilet paper or eggs"] for weeks."

> "the so-far relatively stable social conditions we've been seeing"

Pick one.

Can you really not see the distance here?  Panic buying is a problem now, but we've blunted it from getting out of control by keeping stores open and allowing people to move about them (largely) as normal.  People see the store open, people feel confident that they can go and get what they need.  The minute that people are put in the position of having to wait not just to buy highly in-demand staples (i.e., flour, canned veggies, toilet paper, whatever else) but also any potential immediate needs then the economically rational thing to do is drop everything you're doing and go to grocery store now because you have no idea about what waits might be like in the future.  That creates additional lines and additional waits, thus adding to the urgency of the situation - driving even more people to show-up and wait.  The increased transaction costs of the whole ordeal also encourages people to over-buy even more ("I waited an hour to get in today, so I need to buy everything I might possibly need so I can avoid having to wait 4 hours next week").

The stores are still open. People will have just as much of an ability to go in & get what they need tomorrow as they did yesterday. Don't believe me? The average Walmart is 186,000 sqft large. 5 people per 1,000 sqft means 930 people can be inside at any given moment.

"Oh no, I might have to suffer the pure agony of standing in line for all of a couple of minutes. Let me go clear out my Walmart's stock of dried beans, disinfectant spray, & toilet paper because the economically rational thing to do in this situation is to drop everything I'm doing & go to (Walmart) now because (I) have no idea about what waits might be like!!"

Again, please get a grip on reality.

[brucejoel99]

For the people panicking, most of Europe currently has had similar restrictions on grocery stores for weeks. We have not fallen to anarchy yet.

"Europe isn't real."

[brucejoel99]

538 posted an article (which I didn't read yet) about case counts

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/
Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.

If anything, at a minimum, this just gives you an indication of how f**ked up things really are.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1246457825720553472

He's dealt with viruses ever since Windows 95 & survived them all. He's perfect for this.

[brucejoel99]

Good to see someone holding Fox News accountable for their lies and hypocrisy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DmW_H4U-MI

The Heroes of the Pandumbic.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1246611122402152450

60,000 people landed in the U.S. from Europe every single day before the travel ban. 430,000 from China is actually super low considering the circumstances.

[brucejoel99]

South Dakota state representative dies from coronavirus, first sitting U.S. lawmaker to die after testing positive for COVID-19

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-south-dakota-state-representative-bob-glanzer-dead-20200404-43tkdggt3zakfj26i7zoczghnu-story.html

Interesting that this happened in SD, given how few cases & deaths they've reported. Has it really not hit the Dakotas at all or are they just not testing?

[brucejoel99]

Two. Months.

Two months is completely unacceptable for this type of lockdown.

Said no sane person ever.

[brucejoel99]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

Can you say "reckless endangerment," kids?

[brucejoel99]

Pretty sick of the McCarthyism against anyone who dares to oppose lockdowns.

Pretty sick of people not giving a f**k about public health.

[brucejoel99]

Having it I can tell you it's not fun having it, but if people want to be dumba$$es and get it, let them

Fair, but people being dumbasses & getting it isn't the problem. It's their getting it & then spreading it to people who obviously don't want to get this but have no choice but to be out & about for whatever reason (e.g. essential employment, shopping for essential needs, emergency medical appointments, homelessness, etc). It's a responsibility for those of us who can afford to stay at home to do so, so that those who can't are still somewhat protected.

[brucejoel99]

Well now we know for certain that this virus wasn't hatched at some lab in Wuhan province:

The COVID-19 Virus May Have Been in Humans For Years, Study Suggests

I've already read this study. It states that, since it's a cousin of SARS, it has markers that are traceable to other viruses. What it doesn't state is that SARS-CoV-19 has been in humans for a long time, but that others like it share human & bat reservoirs, so that's quite the sensationalist title to promulgate. If nothing else, though, it's a good study to prove that it wasn't "engineered" by China.

[brucejoel99]

Said no sane person ever.

I won't obey it for 2 months.

The problem here is that if everyone had that same thought, and there was no lock down, the virus would spread like wildfire, completely overwhelm the healthcare system, and we'd be looking at worst-case scenarios in terms of deaths. The fact that even Trump is moving the goalposts to 100,000 - 200,000 deaths is bad enough, but do you really want million(s) dead? It's a pretty simple question here: Without a vaccine immediately available, how many people do you want to die (or get terribly ill and possibly suffer long-term lung damage) so life can go on as normal for the rest?

Few people enjoy the isolation and anxiety that comes with shutting down society. I'm going stir-crazy myself, even though FL's policy and the response to it is so lax I could technically just go about my business (minus a job) - except that this virus could easily be fatal for my mom if I were to pass it to her.

Don't bother trying to talk some sense into him. His history in these COVID threads clearly indicates that, yes, he's perfectly fine with millions (including your own mother) dying so long as he feels like he's not being stopped from going about his business.

[brucejoel99]

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.

In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.

Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.

Pretty good points here!

Great article & a good example of how we need more exposure to systems thinking (& why grocery stores need to be rationing a certain amount per shopper if they haven't already begun to do so).

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/stevesilberman/status/1246897032368775169

I feel like this isn't news to anybody who's been paying attention, but it's good that somebody is finally saying it.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1246911781198495745
From a member of the NYC Council health committee.

Are at-home deaths not being tested post-mortem?

[brucejoel99]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52177586

Tiger at Bronx zoo tests positive for coronavirus.

I wonder about lions and bears as well, oh my!

Great. Just great. Now, we have to stay 6 feet away from tigers too.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1247258999239708676

There are now 7 states left, I think?

The Governors dragging their feet on this is the reason that the lockdowns are gonna end up lasting way longer than they had to.

[brucejoel99]

Apparently Trump and Biden called each other today to discuss steps forward. All disagreements aside, I am glad that Trump got the opportunity to discuss the intricacies of this with someone who dealt with something similar with SwineFlu, particularly from the standpoint of a non-medical professional.

All I can say is that Biden is a better man than me. I don't think I could remain civil with an unrepentant criminal who extorted a foreign government into launching a phony investigation into my family.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1247341470450962432

Ah, good ol' Trumpian corruption.