COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Del Tachi]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My individual feeling is that some countries will let it run, if they haven't inadvertently done so already.

That's not really a good idea either.

I'm tired of the "moderate heroes" who keep saying "WE NEED TO LOCK DOWN EVERYTHING FOR 3 MONTHS LOLOLOL!!!" but I've known all along people shouldn't do some of the stupid things that I've known for years not to do.

[brucejoel99]

Disastrous jobs data sharpens Trump's dilemma over closed economy

Staggering new data showing horrific job losses sparked by coronavirus shutdowns and projections of a lower-than-expected death toll are sharpening the agonizing dilemma confronting President Donald Trump.

How does he find the balance between keeping the economy shut -- to squelch the murderous pandemic -- and allowing a resumption of normal life in order to ease the deprivation now threatening many millions of Americans?
The President and officials around the country must answer if they are willing to exchange a return to the routines on which tens of millions of people depend for a likely consequent rise in the rate of infection.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/politics/donald-trump-economy-joe-biden-coronavirus/index.html

Guessing it won't be a very science-based press conference later today.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1248253101255114752

Great time to fly if you have to.

"Sir, would you mind turning down your music?  Several other passengers have complained."

[Meclazine for Israel]

My individual feeling is that some countries will let it run, if they haven't inadvertently done so already.

That's not really a good idea either.

I'm tired of the "moderate heroes" who keep saying "WE NEED TO LOCK DOWN EVERYTHING FOR 3 MONTHS LOLOLOL!!!" but I've known all along people shouldn't do some of the stupid things that I've known for years not to do.

The Chief Australian Medical Officer wants things locked down here for 6 months and WA has ~280 cases and 4 deaths.

[Calthrina950]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

I don't think that we are going to see the "worst-case" scenarios, that have been proposed, at this point. However, that doesn't mean that our approach to this has been "flawless". Not by any means. If Trump had not denounced coronavirus as a "hoax" and had taken more serious measures from earlier on, we could have reduced the impact of this even further.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

The USA will be 2-3 times worse than Italy. I will plot the comparitive ACTIVE CASE graphs up for you tomorrow.

The US has just had 2 weeks of high acceleration in NEW CASE growth. That has not stopped yet. We are therefore approaching the next 9-12 day period as possibly the most difficult in the entire pandemic for the USA in terms of mortality.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Seems like really discouraging numbers out of Italy, with new cases and death up again.  I realize they still down from their actual peak, but how have they not made more progress after being under national lockdown for a full month?  Maybe the deaths will still lag by a month, but how can they still be getting so many new infections?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

South Korea was relatively unscathed.  The US may not come out of this quite as badly as Italy (or several other major European countries), but we will be much closer to Italy than Korea or several other Asian countries (or other places that did significant early testing like Iceland).  And that is clearly or failure.

I don’t know why we aren’t talking more about what Iran is doing.  It seems like they stopped the growth of the virus several weeks ago, and have consistently been seeing only about 100 deaths per day for the past month.  They were the earliest Western country to see a big outbreak, and everyone was very concerned about their high death rate.  But the US will pass Iran in deaths per capita today.

[Del Tachi]

Seems like really discouraging numbers out of Italy, with new cases and death up again.  I realize they still down from their actual peak, but how have they not made more progress after being under national lockdown for a full month?  Maybe the deaths will still lag by a month, but how can they still be getting so many new infections?

New cases are a function of testing.  The high percentage of positive test results in Italy indicates they haven't upped testing capacity as much as needed, and their "peak" lags due to the unavailability of tests.

[Roll Roons]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

South Korea was relatively unscathed.  The US may not come out of this quite as badly as Italy (or several other major European countries), but we will be much closer to Italy than Korea or several other Asian countries (or other places that did significant early testing like Iceland).  And that is clearly or failure.

I don’t know why we aren’t talking more about what Iran is doing.  It seems like they stopped the growth of the virus several weeks ago, and have consistently been seeing only about 100 deaths per day for the past month.  They were the earliest Western country to see a big outbreak, and everyone was very concerned about their high death rate.  But the US will pass Iran in deaths per capita today.

Iran isn't a Western country, and how do we know their numbers are trustworthy?

[Grassroots]

I'm literally f__king CRYING of laughter. This guy is funnier than any comedian ever has been or ever could be.

https://youtu.be/zi_qX50zv7k

Who ever said evangelical Republicans were good for nothing?

Looks like he can barely container his own laughter

Its funny until you realize he's worth $760 million.

Ugh. This figure made me look him up on Wikipedia. Turns out I was completely wrong giving this jackhole the benefit of the doubt. Turns out he is of course the walking embodiment of stereotypical ignoramus fleecing televangelist. That's right down to spreading anti-vax nonsense several years ago, and even recently proclaiming covid-19 basically cured by his spiritual war with the devil, Etc.

What a bastard.

And no fuzzy, don't whine that this is anti fundamentalist bigotry. Surely you agree this a****** digs his own grave in that regard.

Dude, I've known about Kenneth Copeland for years. His tentacles go wayyyy back.

[Skill and Chance]

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

I don't think that we are going to see the "worst-case" scenarios, that have been proposed, at this point. However, that doesn't mean that our approach to this has been "flawless". Not by any means. If Trump had not denounced coronavirus as a "hoax" and had taken more serious measures from earlier on, we could have reduced the impact of this even further.

We messed up by letting it spread much farther and deeper than it should have at the beginning, but we do seem to be doing a standout job of keeping people who have it alive.  Only Germany looks better on that front and there method of attributing deaths to COVID-19 is very restrictive compared to our method.  Our counting method is closer to Italy's method, so our baseline fatality rate would be higher than Germany's.  It's important to keep this in mind when considering reports of the low IFR in Germany.  I'm optimistic it could be lower than 1.5% or even lower than 1% after accounting for asymptomatics and the quality of US ICU care, but the sub-0.5% reports out of Germany need an asterisk because they don't count it as a COVID death there if the patient has any other serious medical condition.

[JA]

https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888?s=19

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888?s=19

That's one way to try to hide the numbers: quit supporting tests all together. So, in what way would our handling be better than China's at that point?

F**ked up move.

[FrancoAgo]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dailykos/status/1248050537511243777

"Many people who are dying, both here and around the world were on their last legs anyway, and I don’t want to sound callous about that."

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dailykos/status/1248050537511243777

"Many people who are dying, both here and around the world were on their last legs anyway, and I don’t want to sound callous about that."

And he calls himself pro-life.

[Del Tachi]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

Italy has been testing since February, so they'll have tested the most just by virtue of doing it longer than anyone else has.  Reporting tests/million doesn't capture changes in testing capacity, which have a deterministic effect on the "new case" curve. 

[It’s so Joever]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

I mean, it is possible. If a lot of people just didn’t show symptoms and/or opted to not get tested. I still doubt the mortality rate is .4%, 1% seems more likely based on cruise ship data.

[Skill and Chance]

I dont think Australia, Germany, USA and South Korea got the lesser version compared to Italy, France, UK and Spain.

Clearly testing rates in the latter countries are much lower as Dr Birx hinted yesterday.

test per million

Australia 12,946
Germany 15,730
USA 6,872
South Korea 9,310
Italy 14,114
France 3,436
UK 4,155
Spain 7,593


We have town with 2-3% of mortality, it's not possible a fatality rate of 0.37%

Italy has been testing since February, so they'll have tested the most just by virtue of doing it longer than anyone else has.  Reporting tests/million doesn't capture changes in testing capacity, which have a deterministic effect on the "new case" curve. 

The issue here is that Germany is very restrictive in assigning deaths to COVID-19.  The US and Italy use a method that appears to cover all deaths of patients who tested positive.  Germany does not and appears to only count patients who were otherwise healthy with no/minimal underlying conditions before getting COVID-19.  The numbers are not simply not comparable.

[Badger]

Disastrous jobs data sharpens Trump's dilemma over closed economy

Staggering new data showing horrific job losses sparked by coronavirus shutdowns and projections of a lower-than-expected death toll are sharpening the agonizing dilemma confronting President Donald Trump.

How does he find the balance between keeping the economy shut -- to squelch the murderous pandemic -- and allowing a resumption of normal life in order to ease the deprivation now threatening many millions of Americans?
The President and officials around the country must answer if they are willing to exchange a return to the routines on which tens of millions of people depend for a likely consequent rise in the rate of infection.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/politics/donald-trump-economy-joe-biden-coronavirus/index.html

Here's the obvious answer. This sucks rocks badly, but we are finally - - despite the complete lack of leadership or empathy from the president - - starting to win the war against the covid-19 outbreak. Don't surrender now.

[Koharu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dailykos/status/1248050537511243777

"Many people who are dying, both here and around the world were on their last legs anyway, and I don’t want to sound callous about that."

Wow. I... wow. This is both so not true AND completely heartless. It's disgusting.

[Badger]

I'm literally f__king CRYING of laughter. This guy is funnier than any comedian ever has been or ever could be.

https://youtu.be/zi_qX50zv7k

Who ever said evangelical Republicans were good for nothing?

Looks like he can barely container his own laughter

Its funny until you realize he's worth $760 million.

Ugh. This figure made me look him up on Wikipedia. Turns out I was completely wrong giving this jackhole the benefit of the doubt. Turns out he is of course the walking embodiment of stereotypical ignoramus fleecing televangelist. That's right down to spreading anti-vax nonsense several years ago, and even recently proclaiming covid-19 basically cured by his spiritual war with the devil, Etc.

What a bastard.

And no fuzzy, don't whine that this is anti fundamentalist bigotry. Surely you agree this a****** digs his own grave in that regard.

Dude, I've known about Kenneth Copeland for years. His tentacles go wayyyy back.

I actually saw the John Oliver bit on televangelists within just the last couple months. Can't believe I forgot about this guy.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dailykos/status/1248050537511243777

"Many people who are dying, both here and around the world were on their last legs anyway, and I don’t want to sound callous about that."

Wow. I... wow. This is both so not true AND completely heartless. It's disgusting.

It's that first part that needs to be emphasized. Too often when conservatives say something that reveal their profound lack of personal empathy for anyone outside their immediate circle of friends and family, which is usually the case, they're given a pass has supposedly speaking hard truths that Liberals are just too sensitive to process. When in fact, usually it's complete BS they're using to justify they're heartlessness.

It's literally the worst of Both Worlds.