NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Beet]

How were there no f**k-ups in 2016 yet this has happened twice now? The fact that there is only 60% of the results at this point is ridiculous

Because this is the first year they've had to report all three sets of numbers rather than only the final results.

The result of a Sanders campaign demand from 2016. Clinton people like Neera Tanden wanted to get rid of the caucuses altogether.

[Sorenroy]

How were there no f**k-ups in 2016 yet this has happened twice now? The fact that there is only 60% of the results at this point is ridiculous

Because this is the first year they've had to report all three sets of numbers rather than only the final results.

The result of a Sanders campaign demand from 2016. Clinton people like Neera Tanden wanted to get rid of the caucuses altogether.

"Actually, it was the Sanders campaign and their calls for more transparency that made the Iowa and Nevada parties mess up."

That's you. That's how you talk.


In actuality, the state Democratic parties, through incompetence or laziness, deprioritized the caucuses and assumed that they would run fine with minimal effort. If they had started looking at how to better run a caucus sooner they would have been able to preempt these problems or move away from the archaic, anti-democratic caucuses entirely. It's laughable that it's the Sanders campaign who forced the state parties to mess up this bad. Even more laughable when you consider that nine states moved away from the caucus system since 2016 even though the Sanders campaign was there trying to force them to use the caucus process I guess.

[NOVA Green]

Is it just me or do some of our election tools appear virtually unworkable when it comes to data mining NV election results?

The Nevada State Democratic Party website does not allow an easy mechanism to sort/filter by precinct by county.

Additionally, there is no means to easily export data sets into Excel, where one can play around with and filter the data.

The NYT precinct map, at least on my laptop is virtually unworkable in terms of trying to dissect which votes are outstanding and from where....

Even at 500% magnification, there is still a tiny segment of the screen visible and still virtually impossible to see numbers.

The Las Vegas County precinct map once downloaded from PDF is virtually unreadable, and the Washoe County GiS precinct map, I can't even see the precinct numbers until I zoom into practically just one or two precincts showing up on my screen...

Anybody else have similar complaints/gripes?

[Antonio the Sixth]

No new results update since early this morning. What the f**k is happening.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No new results update since early this morning. What the f**k is happening.

Either they didn't want Iowa to feel bad or Pete had it shut down.

[NOVA Green]

So while we are waiting, here is a map of precincts reporting by County thus far....




We have.... drum roll 2/16 Counties (12.5% of Counties) fully reporting which is sort of like waiting up for results from Dixville-Notch and the other EV places in NH to get a comprehensive picture:

Final Alignment:

Esmeralda County:

2020:            (16 Attendance)

Sanders---     10 Votes    (62.5%)        -5.7%   Swing '16 > '20           11 County Delegates
Pete---            3 Votes    (18.8%)                                                       4 County Delegates
Biden---          2 Votes    (12.5%)                                                       2 County Delegates
Warren---        1 Vote     ( 6.3%)                                                        2 County Delegates

2016:            (22 Attendance)

Sanders---      15 Votes    (68.2%)
Clinton--          7 Votes     (31.8%)


Eureka County:

Final Alignment


2020:         (14 Attendance)

Sanders:    10 Votes      (71.4%)       -15.0%                                           14 County Delegates
Pete:           4 Votes      (28.6%)                                                               4 County Delegates

2016:        (22 Attendance)

Sanders:    19 Votes      (86.4%)
HRC:           3 Votes      (13.6%)


Obviously a massive collapse by Sanders in rural NV....   

[MaxQue]

https://nevadacaucusresults.com/

New dump of results.
Buttigieg now at 13.7% in statewide delegates, so not viable.

[2016]

https://nevadacaucusresults.com/

New dump of results.
Buttigieg now at 13.7% in statewide delegates, so not viable.

The last batch of Results came entirely from Clark County which has now 76 % reporting. Buttigieg is leading Biden in the rest of the State except for Clark.

[Gass3268]

Steyer might win a county!

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://nevadacaucusresults.com/

New dump of results.
Buttigieg now at 13.7% in statewide delegates, so not viable.

I'm still seeing the old results (1266 precincts).

[NOVA Green]

https://nevadacaucusresults.com/

New dump of results.
Buttigieg now at 13.7% in statewide delegates, so not viable.

Too bad the NV DEM Party hasn't updated yet...

Assuming you are pulling this from the NYT webpage?

[ElectionsGuy]

Biden did terrible everywhere outside Clark County. The only thing that is keeping him alive at this point is his strong performance among black voters.

[cvparty]

the fact that buttigieg’s final alignment numbers almost match biden’s but his CCDs are a massive drop-off...a reverse iowa

[Gass3268]

https://nevadacaucusresults.com/

New dump of results.
Buttigieg now at 13.7% in statewide delegates, so not viable.

I'm still seeing the old results (1266 precincts).

Looks like they updated their state totals, but not the county of congressional district totals.

[Gass3268]

Biden did terrible everywhere outside Clark County. The only thing that is keeping him alive at this point is his strong performance among black voters.

Which is why he's not going to get any national delegates out of CD-02, but has a solid showing in CD-04.

[MaxQue]

Their site seems to have strong cache, so, you need to refresh cache too (usually Shift+ Refresh button on most browsers).

[John Dule]

It's really telling that the 1st through 4th place winners in Clark County are exactly the same as they are statewide, and with a difference of only a few percentage points. The 2nd-4th slots in every other county are jumbled between Buttigieg, Biden, Warren, Steyer, and Klobuchar, but at the end of the day all those rural counties end up cancelling each other out. Nevada is all about Clark.

[NOVA Green]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

[NOVA Green]

Looks like NV DEM Party is now updated at 1,501 precincts....

Too bad I gotta go to a B-Day Party for one of my grandchildren in a few moments...

[Oryxslayer]

More precincts came in, everything from Clark with the exception of Mineral county, which added a precinct. This precinct put Steyer on top in the county, so I went digging. Could steyer be the preferred candidate of Native Americans, or at least, one of the preferred candidates?

Here's the results from a few of the reasonable Native% reservation precincts reporting so far, (final alignment):

Nye 3 - 1 Pete, 1 Bernie
Nye 4 - 2 Steyer, 1 Biden, 1 Warren
Mineral 11 (the one dropped now) - 17 Steyer, 5 Bernie
Churchill 16 - 25 Bernie, 12 Steyer
Churchill 9 - 4 Bernie, 3 Steyer, 3 Klob, 3 Warren
Lyon 5 - 1 Biden
Elko 12 - 9 Biden, 7 Pete, 3 Bernie
Humbolt 10 - 1 Bernie
Washoe 7581 - Bernie 13 , Warren 6, Biden 2, Steyer 1, Klob 1
Washoe 7412 - Bernie 11, Steyer 8, Pete 6, Warren 6
Washoe 7576 - Steyer 15, Bernie 11, Klob 8, Uncommitted 1
Carson City 409 (urban with lower Native%, so different from the rest. Steyer did get 22 on round 1) - Sanders 60, Klob 55, Pete 41, Warren 10, Biden 2

Certainly seems that steyer is doing better than average in the reservations, though they are a tiny voter pool.

[Oryxslayer]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

Not sure what this is trying to say. There are two pools of delegates. Some are awarded statewide , some by CD. They are separate. Both are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. This is near universal across the democratic contests.

So if candidate a passes 15% in a district, but misses statewide, they do get district delegates like Klob did in Iowa. You can also pass 15% statewide but fail to pass 15% in a district.

[MaxQue]

Delegates at the moment (compared to results at 60%):

At-large: Sanders 6 (+1), Biden 2, Buttigieg 0 (-1)
PLEO: Sanders 3, Biden 2 (+1), Buttigieg 0 (-1)
CD-1: Sanders 4 (+1), Biden 1 (-1)
CD-2: Sanders 4, Buttigieg 2
CD-3: Sanders 3 (-1), Biden 2, Buttigieg 1 (+1)
CD-4: Sanders 4 (+1), Biden 2, Buttigieg 0 (-1)

Sanders 24 (+2), Biden 9, Buttigieg 3 (-2)

[MaxQue]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

Not sure what this is trying to say. There are two pools of delegates. Some are awarded statewide , some by CD. They are separate. Both are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. This is near universal across the democratic contests.

So if candidate a passes 15% in a district, but misses statewide, they do get district delegates like Klob did in Iowa. You can also pass 15% statewide but fail to pass 15% in a district.

The latter is not mathematically possible.

[Minnesota Mike]

Buttigieg drop due to his poor performance at the Strip Caucuses that were added.  He only got 6 of 178 Delegates available.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Their site seems to have strong cache, so, you need to refresh cache too (usually Shift+ Refresh button on most browsers).

Thanks. I can see it now.

So, since this is updating at an Iowa-esque pace now, might as well take a look at how this most recent batch broke down. Doing only CCDs because I'm lazy:

Bernie 51.7%
Biden 24.6%
Pete 8.7%
Warren 7.3%
Steyer 5.7%
Klob 1.6%

So, even relative to the rest of Clark, this was an exceptionally good batch for Bernie and a bad one for Pete. Here's hoping there's more like it to come.