NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)
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  NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)
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Author Topic: NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)  (Read 48374 times)
Sorenroy
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« Reply #1425 on: February 27, 2020, 12:14:00 PM »

Let's repeat that Sanders won 34% of the vote, at least the vote that was important for entrance/exit polls.

I hope you don't injure yourself with all that twisting.

Either Sanders
- won the first three states, including a moderate win (34%) in Nevada, or
- tied in Iowa and won huge (47%) in Nevada

You can't have it both ways, my friend.

I mean, yes. That's the point I was trying (unsuccessfully, I guess) to make. Given that you actually recommended the post I was referring from in the Iowa thread, I'm guessing that I just didn't explain it well enough here.

In understanding the results, especially when it comes to judging how well the polls did, exit polls, and extrapolations to other states, Sanders won the first three contests. In understanding the results from a "Who's winning delegates?" position, SDEs or CCDs should be ignored in favor of pledged delegates. But the overlap of Vox saying Sanders won 47% of the vote and then following that up by saying he won a majority of Hispanic voters is confusing and makes no sense, as it's comparing two different metrics (apples and oranges/first-alignment votes and county convention delegates). In the same way, it wouldn't make any sense to say Sanders won 67% of the vote and did best among 17-29 year olds by getting 65% of their vote. Both counts, 67% of pledged delegates and 65% of 17-29 year olds, are correct, but you can't compare the two like they're measuring the same thing.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1426 on: February 27, 2020, 04:18:42 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2020, 04:29:57 PM by Epaminondas »

Yes, your other post was quite thoughtful.

We can agree on two points:
1) the SDEs are garbage and should go the way of the dodo
2) the 47% exist no more than Pete's win in Iowa.

However, I think you're incorrect in contending first vote preference should always be used for comparisons.
In fact, final ballot in a caucus is a perfectly good measure to use against first ballot in primaries.

The luxury of not spoiling your ballot within a RBV system alters voting strategies. People think, work out their own odds and adapt to this by voting for "riskier" contenders while keeping their "safer" as immediate backup. Single Transferable Vote is the universal voting method in Ireland, so I have some experience of it.

A pre-caucus ballot like this: 1. Gabbard / 2. Warren / 3. Sanders
is not going anywhere but to Bernie in a runoff sytem without Gabbard & Warren.

Your claim it should be entirely discounted is odd and appears borne from a lack of forethought about the psychology of ballot spoiling. These voters were motivated enough to waste their afternoon in casting a marginally insignificant ballot. It's time to give voters some credit - Democratic ones at least.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1427 on: February 27, 2020, 09:24:05 PM »

However, I think you're incorrect in contending first vote preference should always be used for comparisons.
In fact, final ballot in a caucus is a perfectly good measure to use against first ballot in primaries.

The luxury of not spoiling your ballot within a RBV system alters voting strategies. People think, work out their own odds and adapt to this by voting for "riskier" contenders while keeping their "safer" as immediate backup. Single Transferable Vote is the universal voting method in Ireland, so I have some experience of it.

A pre-caucus ballot like this: 1. Gabbard / 2. Warren / 3. Sanders
is not going anywhere but to Bernie in a runoff sytem without Gabbard & Warren.

Your claim it should be entirely discounted is odd and appears borne from a lack of forethought about the psychology of ballot spoiling. These voters were motivated enough to waste their afternoon in casting a marginally insignificant ballot. It's time to give voters some credit - Democratic ones at least.

I understand the ideas behind ballot spoiling/ranked choice voting/etc. and I definitely think that there is merit to using final-alignment voting as a cross state indicator. If we're trying to see how voters in Iowa might compare to, say, voters in New Hampshire, final-alignment might be the better way to look at the two sets of numbers. However, there is a big difference between the process of casting votes in Iowa vs. New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, you go in and cast your secret ballot, perhaps with some strategic understanding of who may and may not be viable. In Iowa, you go to your precinct caucus and if your preferred candidate is viable in just that one location you stay with your person, even if that's their only precinct in the whole state. Again, final-alignment might still be the better comparison, but first preference is a much more similar to the process of going and voting. As with everything else, it's a messy process when it comes to caucusing.

However, the point I was making in my original comment had to deal with what is important for entrance/exit polls. In trying to get a sense of what groups supported who, the conductors of the entrance polls use first-alignment numbers to try to match their sample with the actual electorate. It still muddles the results even if you were using final-alignment numbers for the statewide outcome and first-alignment numbers for the performance of a candidate by demographic group.

Also, even though it wasn't my original point, I think that this fact, that first-alignment votes are what are used for the entrance polls, makes it so first-alignment is the better cross state measure. If I want to look at how Sanders is doing across the country among non-white voters, I can't do that if one of my measures is showing something else. This might just be a specific thing for cross state demographic use, but I think first-alignment vote if a perfectly reasonable measure, even if final-alignment is too.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1428 on: February 28, 2020, 03:29:48 PM »

Nevada has 48 delegates (36 pledged + 12 unpledged):

24 Sanders
 9 Biden (+2)
 3 ButtiPete (+1)

The 12 unpledged delegates are:

5 Democratic National Committee members
5 Members of Congress (2 Senators and 3 Representatives)
1 Governor
1 Distinguished Party Leader (former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid)

Reid, Sisolak, Rosen, Cortez-Masto and the 5 DNC members: no endorsement

Horsford and Titus: Biden
Lee: Buttigieg
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