NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Mr. Morden]

On county delegates, it looks like Clark is one of only two counties in the state where Biden is ahead of Buttigieg.  Of course, Clark dominates the count so much that that's enough for Biden to have the edge for 2nd place.

[Shadows]

So far, it seems like fantastic results for Bernie, good/decent for Biden and downright terrible for everyone else.

Klob, Pete and Mike Bloomberg need to drop out and endorse Biden if they want to stop Bernie.

Agreed as a Sanders supporter. But arrogant Mayor Cheat is asking everyone except Sanders & Bloomberg to drop out (as he needs Bloomberg to take Black votes otherwise he will lose big-time 1 on 1 vs Bernie). He just said on air that Warren, Klobuchar & Biden should drop out to allow him to challenge Bernie.

[dax00]

Nevada has, despite the more complicated procedure, proven to be more transparent and competent than Iowa. And, unlike in Iowa, the vote here does not appear to be rigged. So that's good.

Main question now is whether Pete can stay above the 15% statewide threshold.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With 43% in, Warren has 9.48%. Looks like no delegates for her. Pete is right near the threshold for statewide viability at 15.14%.

[Mr. Morden]

The state party website is still (obviously mistakenly) showing Warren with over 200,000 votes on first preference in Washoe County.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess the state party website updates the county delegate numbers in big dumps, but CNN is updating the two popular vote counts bit by bit.  E.g., the state party website updated about half an hour ago, but hasn't moved since.  But CNN's website seems to add popular vote #s every few minutes (now up to 48% reporting on the popular vote).  They seem to be ahead of the NV Dem. website in some counties and behind them in others.  So I'm still speculating that they're giving us some kind of hybrid of official #s and poll watcher #s from Edison.  So whenever the official #s update, they have to integrate them in bit by bit somehow.

[Gass3268]

NYT has it at 50% of precincts reporting. Buttigieg seems to be gaining on Biden in every batch. Looks like he'll secure statewide viability as well.

[Amtrak Joe]

Well y’all, it’s time to put your #BlueNoMatterWho bonafides to the test and commit to the glorious revolution of our comrade and Supreme Leader Bernard Sanders.  

I updated my 2020 prediction for your "glorious revolution." There's no hope for this country it seems, or the world as a whole.

At least we won’t be forced to decide between two racist, perverted, misogynistic, billionaires from New York — thank God.

I guess Bloomberg is such a racist that civil rights activists Bobby Rush, Andrew Young, Geoffrey Canada, and others have openly backed his campaign.

Get out of here that a petty grifter, the Mayor of Atlanta for 6 years in the 90’s and a man who has worked for Bloomberg in the past mean f—k all when it comes to his gross civil rights and racial history.

Yes, even black men can be bought. Even when they’re literal social and political nobodies of relevance to the civil rights movement of the 21st century. Lmao.

There's so much wrong with you said, but talking to you is like talking to a brick.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Well y’all, it’s time to put your #BlueNoMatterWho bonafides to the test and commit to the glorious revolution of our comrade and Supreme Leader Bernard Sanders.  

I updated my 2020 prediction for your "glorious revolution." There's no hope for this country it seems, or the world as a whole.

At least we won’t be forced to decide between two racist, perverted, misogynistic, billionaires from New York — thank God.

I guess Bloomberg is such a racist that civil rights activists Bobby Rush, Andrew Young, Geoffrey Canada, and others have openly backed his campaign.

Get out of here that a petty grifter, the Mayor of Atlanta for 6 years in the 90’s and a man who has worked for Bloomberg in the past mean f—k all when it comes to his gross civil rights and racial history.

Yes, even black men can be bought. Even when they’re literal social and political nobodies of relevance to the civil rights movement of the 21st century. Lmao.

There's so much wrong with you said, but talking to you is like talking to a brick.

I didn’t realize Bloomberg Bro’s were this fragile, or allergic to facts. Meh. 

[Amtrak Joe]

Well y’all, it’s time to put your #BlueNoMatterWho bonafides to the test and commit to the glorious revolution of our comrade and Supreme Leader Bernard Sanders.  

I updated my 2020 prediction for your "glorious revolution." There's no hope for this country it seems, or the world as a whole.

At least we won’t be forced to decide between two racist, perverted, misogynistic, billionaires from New York — thank God.

I guess Bloomberg is such a racist that civil rights activists Bobby Rush, Andrew Young, Geoffrey Canada, and others have openly backed his campaign.

Get out of here that a petty grifter, the Mayor of Atlanta for 6 years in the 90’s and a man who has worked for Bloomberg in the past mean f—k all when it comes to his gross civil rights and racial history.

Yes, even black men can be bought. Even when they’re literal social and political nobodies of relevance to the civil rights movement of the 21st century. Lmao.

There's so much wrong with you said, but talking to you is like talking to a brick.

I didn’t realize Bloomberg Bro’s were this fragile, or allergic to facts. Meh. 

Nah, you're just really dense. Why should I waste my time talking to someone who labels civil rights activists "grifters" because they support someone that you disagree with?

[dax00]

270 precincts left in Washoe, where Pete has so far gotten 17.4% of CCDs. 640 precincts left in Clark, where Pete has so far gotten 13.6% of CCDs. Assuming precincts of equal size (a bad assumption, but for the sake of math...), that makes: (270*17.4+640*13.6)/(270+640)= 14.73%. The average precinct in Washoe so far has yielded 4.658 CCDs, compared to 9.045 in Clark, which means he is in serious danger of not making statewide viability, after averaging with his current 15.4%

[NOVA Green]

NYT has it at 50% of precincts reporting. Buttigieg seems to be gaining on Biden in every batch. Looks like he'll secure statewide viability as well.

So (1,046/ 2,097) Precincts reporting....

Results by County Delegates---

Sanders--- 3,552    (46.6%)
Biden--      1,459    (19.2%)
Pete---       1,175    (15.4%)
Warren--       785    (10.3%)
Amy---          345    (4.5%)
Steyer--        278    (3.8%)

[Gass3268]

Funny thought, imagine all complaining there would be in here and Twitter if Biden or Buttigieig had 33.6 in the first round but that expanded to 46.6 in the delegates allocated, but Sanders only had an increase of 2 points. Oh the conspiracy theories that would be told!

[Mr. Morden]

The state party website is still (obviously mistakenly) showing Warren with over 200,000 votes on first preference in Washoe County.

Looks like this was finally fixed.

[Tender Branson]

It's 8am here and still only 50% counted ?

LOL.

[dax00]

So, I did the math. Based off of extrapolations with fair assumptions, my prediction for Pete's final statewide total is 14.82%

[AGA]

What are the odds that Biden drops to third? I am starting to get concerned.

[Tender Branson]

What are the odds that Biden drops to third? I am starting to get concerned?

Hopefully.

There's still a lot of votes to be counted ... would be amazing if Pete can get ~20% in the first and second rounds of voting and end ahead of Biden in the delegates.

[dax00]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

[Tender Branson]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

You cannot do any "math" with just half the vote in ...

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

You cannot do any "math" with just half the vote in ...

You could if you know where the vote came from and where it remains to be reported.

but i'm guessing they don't know that lol

[Florida Man for Crime]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

Hopefully you are right. I endorse this math.

[Tender Branson]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

You cannot do any "math" with just half the vote in ...

You could if you know where the vote came from and where it remains to be reported.

but i'm guessing they don't know that lol

Not even then can you predict it, because you cannot know what the remaining vote looks like.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The ideal scenario would be both Biden and Pete unviable, but alas, that seems to be too much to hope for.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The ideal scenario would be both Biden and Pete unviable, but alas, that seems to be too much to hope for.

I'd settle for just Pete being unviable. Biden got screwed with delegate allocation in IA and NH, while Pete ended up with a lot more delegates than he should have. It's only fair now that he gets screwed by the rules.