NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Tender Branson]

Post information and results for the Democratic NV Caucus here.

Entrance will start at 10am PT (1pm Eastern, 7pm Europe).

Voting will start at noon PT (3pm Eastern, 9pm Europe).

About 70.000 people voted in advance already.

Please stick the thread on top as well.

Results
NY Times
CNN
DDHQ
Politico
NV Dems

Misc

Las Vegas precinct map

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Over or under 50% Nevada becomes Iowa 2.0?

[Tender Branson]

Over or under 50% Nevada becomes Iowa 2.0?

The chances are lower because of the vast number of votes that were already cast (unless turnout hits 200.000 in total).

And even then, NV Dems use Ipads and Google to record the votes + a callcenter if these break down.

[eric82oslo]

Over or under 50% Nevada becomes Iowa 2.0?

The chances are lower because of the vast number of votes that were already cast (unless turnout hits 200.000 in total).

And even then, NV Dems use Ipads and Google to record the votes + a call center if these break down.

Will you finally admit that Andrew Yang is a gazillion times better and hotter in every way once this night is over and feel tremendously sorry that you help destroy the social democratic future of the USA for all time starting right now?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Let me be the first to congratulate Bernie Sanders.

[Sbane]

When will the entrance polls be released?

[jimrtex]

Over or under 50% Nevada becomes Iowa 2.0?

The chances are lower because of the vast number of votes that were already cast (unless turnout hits 200.000 in total).

And even then, NV Dems use Ipads and Google to record the votes + a callcenter if these break down.

What happens if early voting is massively dissimilar to in-person voting, or if nobody shows up tomorrow? Supposedly 85,000 participated in 2012, but there were 70,000 in person early this year.

[Tender Branson]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

[Tender Branson]

Over or under 50% Nevada becomes Iowa 2.0?

The chances are lower because of the vast number of votes that were already cast (unless turnout hits 200.000 in total).

And even then, NV Dems use Ipads and Google to record the votes + a callcenter if these break down.

What happens if early voting is massively dissimilar to in-person voting, or if nobody shows up tomorrow? Supposedly 85,000 participated in 2012, but there were 70,000 in person early this year.

NV has a fast-growing population, so the turnout will almost definitely be up from 2008 or 2016.

Might reach Iowa levels altogether (175.000) or maybe a bit lower.

Which I would still find kinda bad (only 25% of the 620.000 registered Dems in the state).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

My most anticipated primary/caucus of the early 4. The most reflective electorate for the national Democratic party and the biggest window into the national landscape before Super Tuesday.

The state where, regardless of overall result, we'll finally get some sizeable entrance/exit poll numbers regarding the various demographics that'll determine the candidates' coalitions going forward.


Plus a number of variables that'll affect today and the next three weeks of primaries (Or 59% of pledged delegates):

- The difference between a shockingly strong Sanders win or a shockingly narrow Sanders loss  (And how much of his strong Hispanic support is Beyond Belief: Fact or Fiction)
- The difference between a 2nd place or 4th place finish for Biden
- The potential reemergence of Warren after The Passion of Bloomberg
- The true reach & test of Buttigieg's ground
- The full effect of Steyer's advertising blanket
- And whatever Klobuchar is up to these days
- How much early voting or potential snafu renders some of these variables moot (And if early voting increases turnout at all)

[Pericles]

If it's really close maybe there will be a split decision  like in Iowa. Didn't Obama win the delegates while losing the popular vote by 6 points? I wasn't following the 2008 election but it seems like that would cause a total meltdown if that sort of scenario happens. Still, it looks like Bernie will win comfortably.

[cvparty]

ooh i’m excited this is where the winnowing begins

[atheist4thecause]

I'm excited for the caucus results. I'm also excited to move on from Nevada. I get sick of hearing how important Nevada is because of the racist idea that people who have similar skin colors all vote alike. They don't. Race needs to stop being elevated above ideas, but the Postmodern Democrats struggle with that simple concept. Hopefully Klobuchar overperforms, but I'm not expecting it. We'll see.

[atheist4thecause]

ooh i’m excited this is where the winnowing begins

I really don't think winnowing will happen much. We're not far from Super Tuesday and the "weakest" candidates have their firewalls coming. Biden (if you consider him weak) is set to do fairly well in Nevada and is polling well in South Carolina. Klobuchar has Minnesota on Super Tuesday. Warren has Massachusetts on Super Tuesday. Maybe candidates like Gabbard drop out, but I'd be surprised if we saw this great winnowing of the field, especially given so much money has already been spent on Super Tuesday states.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm excited for the caucus results. I'm also excited to move on from Nevada. I get sick of hearing how important Nevada is because of the racist idea that people who have similar skin colors all vote alike. They don't. Race needs to stop being elevated above ideas, but the Postmodern Democrats struggle with that simple concept. Hopefully Klobuchar overperforms, but I'm not expecting it. We'll see.

My exact feelings about South Carolina

[cvparty]

ooh i’m excited this is where the winnowing begins

I really don't think winnowing will happen much. We're not far from Super Tuesday and the "weakest" candidates have their firewalls coming. Biden (if you consider him weak) is set to do fairly well in Nevada and is polling well in South Carolina. Klobuchar has Minnesota on Super Tuesday. Warren has Massachusetts on Super Tuesday. Maybe candidates like Gabbard drop out, but I'd be surprised if we saw this great winnowing of the field, especially given so much money has already been spent on Super Tuesday states.

yes yes i know klobmentum is on its way to launching amy past a national delegate majority. but in all seriousness this is the first of many racially diverse states; performing poorly here is a bad omen for any candidate. for what it’s worth biden’s polling average here is lower than it was in iowa. additionally, barring some wild upset, this is where bernie’s delegate snowballing begins. klobuchar/warren are not going to be saved by firewalls that consist of a single state (which they very well might not even win against bernie)

[bilaps]

If we don't get anything out of these really small rural counties in an hour, hour and a half, it will be IA 2.0

I actually think early vote makes it more difficult because you need to sort those ranked choices for 2nd ballot

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Here's what CNN updates looked like for the 2016 Democratic caucus. Though the fractured nature of the race, early voting & the chances of Iowa-like chaos renders a lot of this moot. Still a fun look back at the last rodeo and perhaps provide some timed goalposts. I'd wager there being a great deal of messiness if the results are 90 minutes late from the time caucusing starts


Pacific time

 12:00     Caucus begins
 12:04     First entrance polls released (Race, Ideology, Union household)
 12:35     2nd set of entrance polls released (Head-to-head, first-time caucusgoers, qualities)
 12:57     First precinct numbers reporting
   1:17     13% precincts in_____9% of Clark County in, 40% of Washoe County in
   1:27     21% precincts in____13% of Clark County in, 45% of Washoe County in
   1:39     31% precincts in____21% of Clark County in, 54% of Washoe County in
   1:52     40% precincts in____36% of Clark County in, 74% of Washoe County in
   2:06     50% precincts in
   2:18     61% precincts in____53% of Clark County in, 85% of Washoe County in
   2:26     Hillary Clinton projected as winner (66% precincts in)
   2:38     70% precincts in
   3:31     80% precincts in
   7:33     90% precincts in

[Tender Branson]

Interesting article about the process today:

Nevada Democrats demand that caucus site leaders sign nondisclosure agreements

[Adam Griffin]

RIP Pete's Campaign

[jaichind]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Will they release early voting results at the early voting results at the same time?

[atheist4thecause]

Here's what CNN updates looked like for the 2016 Democratic caucus. Though the fractured nature of the race, early voting & the chances of Iowa-like chaos renders a lot of this moot. Still a fun look back at the last rodeo and perhaps provide some timed goalposts. I'd wager there being a great deal of messiness if the results are 90 minutes late from the time caucusing starts


Pacific time

 12:00     Caucus begins
 12:04     First entrance polls released (Race, Ideology, Union household)
 12:35     2nd set of entrance polls released (Head-to-head, first-time caucusgoers, qualities)
 12:57     First precinct numbers reporting
   1:17     13% precincts in_____9% of Clark County in, 40% of Washoe County in
   1:27     21% precincts in____13% of Clark County in, 45% of Washoe County in
   1:39     31% precincts in____21% of Clark County in, 54% of Washoe County in
   1:52     40% precincts in____36% of Clark County in, 74% of Washoe County in
   2:06     50% precincts in
   2:18     61% precincts in____53% of Clark County in, 85% of Washoe County in
   2:26     Hillary Clinton projected as winner (66% precincts in)
   2:38     70% precincts in
   3:31     80% precincts in
   7:33     90% precincts in

Quoting because this is such a good post it needs to be constantly bumped.

I know there are a lot of predictions that Nevada is going to be Iowa 2.0, but I think Nevada is going to be a lot better, even if there are some issues. Early voting should help the counting because those are all paper ballots that go through a scanner and drastically reduce the amount of votes come caucus day.

I was also thinking that because (according to polls) Biden, Warren and Sanders voters were the most set in stone, they end be the ones more likely to vote early. Is that how you guys see it? If this hypothesis is correct, we could see a lot of votes coming in early for those candidates and then drastically shift towards the other candidates when the day of vote results start coming in. Or do the results all come in and once and not do the early votes first?

Fox News was also reporting it was raining in Las Vegas early this morning. I'm not sure if rain will have an impact today or not, but it's worth noting that it's a bit of a rainy/gloomy day.

Here's a WSJ article I can't read because it's behind a pay wall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nevada-caucuses-2020-what-time-does-voting-start-and-when-to-expect-results-11582369200

Can anybody read that? It claims to tell when we can start expecting results. I was wondering if it would answer the question about whether early votes get released first.

Not too big of a surprise, but Nevada Democrats won't commit to same day results: https://apnews.com/ed71910f92a2d4936e9784d27ff4e113

[Oryxslayer]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Traditionally, entrance polls are a bunch of whack since voters haven't even voted. Since so many people voted early (throwing turnout models for a loop, but that's different) the entrance poll is going to be even more useless.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

[2016]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Traditionally, entrance polls are a bunch of whack since voters haven't even voted. Since so many people voted early (throwing turnout models for a loop, but that's different) the entrance poll is going to be even more useless.

The Entrance Poll out of Iowa (despite getting no Results that Evening) was pretty accurate. It showed Pete Buttigieg strong across the State with Sanders 2nd.