NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

The second is that he's really, truly warped the minds of the young generation of voters.  So many of my friends think it's totally normal to believe that the Democratic Party is 100% corrupt and standing in the way of progress.  So many of them think Bernie is the only one who can save us, and that it's normal to not vote for any candidate except your savior.  And so many of them believe that things in this country are so much worse than they actually are.  The anger and nihilism are off the charts.  And either way they are going to end up dejected and disillusioned with politics.  Either they lose and think it was all rigged just like in 2016, or they win and eventually have to face the cold hard reality that Bernie has been lying to them and nothing he promised is going to happen.

It's really bad.  There's no sugarcoating it.  This is easily the lowest moment for the Democratic Party in the last 30 years.

Now explain how he's warped the minds of Hispanic voters (Of all ages) & Culinary Worker members.

Why they were brainwashed into voting for Bernie over the Deporter-in-Chief's right-hand man or two mid-westerners that never bothered to reach out to them until a week ago.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Your favorite President congratulates Bernie and tells him be aware that the establishment might steal it yet again!


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1231366964611866625



https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1231305812879929344
https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1231298355701207041

Hell yeah!

[GoTfan]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

That's basically it. He's going to be the nominee.  At that point one of two things happens.  Most likely is he gets destroyed by Trump.  Less likely is that he wins an improbable victory, at which point we have another four years of a populist scam artist as president, except this one won't even have control of Congress.  He will completely fail to achieve any of his policies, 2022 will be a Republican landslide, and we'll lose the White House again in 2024.

It would be nice if we could say, all the damage will be cleared up in 8 years (or even 4 if he dies) but there are two aspects of Sanders' revolution that will cause far more long-term damage.

The first is that he's rebranded our key policies as "socialism."  It's like he's determined to make the Democratic Party as unpopular as possible.  He and AOC are walking, talking stereotypes of what the GOP says our party is.  And it will take a long time to come back from that.  Just like the anti-war movement was never the same after 1968, so too the liberal domestic agenda and welfare state will never be the same after 2020.  Anytime we want to talk about this stuff in the 2030s, Republicans will just be able to point to the Sanders presidency and say "the Democrats just want to do that disaster again."

The second is that he's really, truly warped the minds of the young generation of voters.  So many of my friends think it's totally normal to believe that the Democratic Party is 100% corrupt and standing in the way of progress.  So many of them think Bernie is the only one who can save us, and that it's normal to not vote for any candidate except your savior.  And so many of them believe that things in this country are so much worse than they actually are.  The anger and nihilism are off the charts.  And either way they are going to end up dejected and disillusioned with politics.  Either they lose and think it was all rigged just like in 2016, or they win and eventually have to face the cold hard reality that Bernie has been lying to them and nothing he promised is going to happen.

It's really bad.  There's no sugarcoating it.  This is easily the lowest moment for the Democratic Party in the last 30 years.

This reads like a failed attempt at a dramatic movie speech.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Every state has issues staffing the polls. I worked the polls in Indiana from November 2012 to May 2016 and despite people getting paid $10/hour for it (so, not volunteers), people either failed to show up or the parties simply couldn't fill spots. It's not a conspiracy, it's just that the American voting system is stupid and people don't take civic engagement seriously (as usual).


Anyways, Bernard's big victory was THE top story in much of international news media for several hours this morning. It's still in the top 3-4 stories now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Democrats are feeling the Bern, it seems. I'm basically resigned to a Bernie nomination now. Don't see how Uncle Joe is turning the page. He'll win South Carolina by a narrow margin and split the votes with Mike and Pete on Super Tuesday. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't see anything other than either a Bernie nomination or contested convention where Bernie goes into with an advantage in terms of delegates. If the latter is the case, he should the nominee unless it's really tight and he he's far away from the majority.

[snip]

This reads like a failed attempt at a dramatic movie speech.

Not as dramatic as repeatedly claiming that Biden was the inevitable nominee after Iowa & Bernie was a sinking ship for tying in first place in the first state

[Skye]

It's almost midnight here, so I'm going to sleep. Hopefully the Nevada State Democratic Party is more competent than its counterpart at *certain* small Midwestern state and I'll see the full results as soon as I wake up.

It's almost been 12 H O U R S since I posted this and still only 50% of precincts have been reported.

Seriously. Why are they like this.

[cvparty]

It's almost midnight here, so I'm going to sleep. Hopefully the Nevada State Democratic Party is more competent than its counterpart at *certain* small Midwestern state and I'll see the full results as soon as I wake up.

It's almost been 12 H O U R S since I posted this and still only 50% of precincts have been reported.

Seriously. Why are they like this.

well...better than i**a

[W]

I literally went to sleep at 11% and here we are at just 50%?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I literally went to sleep at 11% and here we are at just 50%?

The guy trekking the caucus results in from the desert got bitten by a rattlesnake. 

[bilaps]

Nevada results are just a little less catastrophic than Iowa's because they actualy have some votes released, but still it's a joke, imagine if this was close as Iowa..

[Tender Branson]

Nevada results are just a little less catastrophic than Iowa's because they actualy have some votes released, but still it's a joke, imagine if this was close as Iowa..

Now all caucuses are done anyway (except for WY and the overseas areas, who nobody cares about), so thank goodness ...

[dax00]

I don't believe it. 0513 in the morning Pacific time, and more results come in. Up to 1266 precincts

Bernie 46.04%
Biden 19.55%
Pete 15.32%
Warren 10.10%
Amy 4.76%
Steyer 4.05%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Bernie is doing roughly the same as four years ago, which isn't anything to shout about, but given the larger number of choices is still good for him. So the real question is can the anti-Bernie part of the party coalesce around a single candidate and do it in time to matter.

Looking at the initial and final preference results, Biden is toast. He's proving unable to attract voters he doesn't already have. His poor performance in Nevada 2 is another strike to his claims of being able to unite the party.

Gabbard needs to withdraw ASAP. She doesn't even have a snowball's chance at Waikiki of winning now.

[Tender Branson]

Pete would probably need to increase his share to ~18% in Clark County overall to come out ahead of Biden with the delegates statewide.

Which means he’d need some 20% on average in the 44% that are left to count in Clark, because he’s at 16% there right now.

[SN2903]

I don't know if Biden can win SC after yesterday.

[n1240]

Noticed that NV-01 has a disproportionate ratio of delegates to turnout relative to the other districts (more so 2 and 3, not so much 4), which really helps buoy Sanders' county delegate lead since he's receiving 60% of the delegates there

Votes per delegate in each district:

NV-01: 5.4
NV-02: 10.2
NV-03: 8.4
NV-04: 5.6

Also simple extrapolation which assumes that the remaining precincts in each district are representative of the rest (probably not true) would put Buttigieg below viability statewide

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't know if Biden can win SC after yesterday.

I wonder how much of the bandwagon factor will be a thing.

"I was going to vote for Joe, but he's lost a lot of momentum and it seems that Bernie might be our nominee." 

[atheist4thecause]

I don't know if Biden can win SC after yesterday.

Why? He's in 2nd right now. That's a good showing for him. He had given up on the state and when he realized his numbers were as good as they were he made a late push that worked. I don't know what else you expected. Staying in the top keeps a candidate relevant.

[Ebsy]

TIL being behind by 20 points was at the top.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Two blatantly obvious points I think

1) The GOP call every Democrat a socialist from Joe Manchin to Ilhan Omar. It is an attack line that is perhaps not as strong as it once was, to put it rather charitably.
2) The GOP essentially spent most of the last decade as a crypto-fascist party and they're doing fine. I would suggest on that basis that a Sanders nomination would not be the end of the world.

Essentially some of you need to get a f!cking grip.

This. Particularly on the scare-word socialism.

[Shadows]

Biden has to win SC for him & Bloomberg. If Bernie wins SC, he will carry a ton of momentum after this huge Nevada victory & he will get a 4-5% bump (He got a 8-10% bump after Iowa & NH). If his average polling goes to 35-37%, there will be states like California where he will hit 40% & will win 60-70-80% of the delegates. In that case, he may win 55-60% of the delegates or more in Super Tuesday & the nearest candidate will be @ 15+17% odd. That will a majority not a plurality. It will give Bernie a win in most if not all Super Tuesday states giving him a ton of more momentum, media coverage, fundraising & more bandwagon effect & more calls to unify & avoid a contested convention.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DDHQ actually made a really good point with some interesting implications for the Pete vs. Klobuchar #HateFest: As badly as Pete does with African-Americans and (albeit to a slightly lesser degree) Hispanics, he still runs rings around Klobuchar with both groups if Nevada is anything to go by to the point.  As a result, he didn't miss viability nearly as often in Nevada as Klobuchar did and looks more likely than not to clear the 15.00% delegate threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone's excitement to prove a point has caused this thread to miss the fact that NV just jumped to 60% of precincts in. 57.6K votes, 46-19.6-15.3 when it comes to delegates.

[Brittain33]

It's a worker's party now.

[Tender Branson]

Did anyone else notice how crappy turnout will be ?

75.000 voted early and it seems not a whole lot more turned out yesterday.

Probably just 100.000 in total, which is a disaster considering NVs fast growing population.

Just 1/6 Democrats voted.