New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Has any presidential candidate ever won any primary with less than 26% of the vote.  I found a couple examples of candidates winning with 27%, but no one lower than Sanders tonight as far as I can tell. (Santorum won the Iowa caucus with ~24%.)

Going through the primaries now, but here's the 1976 Massachusetts Democratic primary (per Wikipedia)


Scoop Jackson     22.34
Morris Udall         17.73
George Wallace    16.73
Jimmy Carter       13.86
Fred Harris            7.57
Sargent Shriver     7.24
Birch Bayh            4.75
Ellen McCormack   3.50
Milton Shapp         2.95
Uncommitted        1.33
Lloyd Bentsen       0.05

[Statilius the Epicurean]

LOL at Buttigieg claiming he's won New Hampshire.

I know right?! Bernie would never claim victory in a State he lost! Gosh what a rat!

Lmao. Are you talking about Iowa where Buttigieg went on TV to claim victory with about 60% of the vote in?

[junior chįmp]

I'm glad his victory margin is so underwhelming.

He doesn't have the suburban appeal to beat Trump.

This was the same argument made by Orange County Republicans in why Katie Porter couldn't win.

At the end of the day....people will vote their identity regardless of the nominee or their ideology

I wouldn't say Philly Romney-Clinton voters would safely identify themselves as Democrats though.

Sanders probably would keep most Romney-Clinton voters.  He'd have a huge problem keeping any Trump-2018 Dem voters, though, and he needs them to win the EC. 

I want to expand Democratic gains in the suburbs... the candidates who are best equipped for that, in my opinion, are Klobuchar and Bloomberg.

Dems will expand their gains in the suburbs by way of demographics and economic performance....not by candidate quality

[It’s so Joever]

LOL at Buttigieg claiming he's won New Hampshire.

I know right?! Bernie would never claim victory in a State he lost! Gosh what a rat!

Lmao. Are you talking about Iowa where Buttigieg went on TV to claim victory with about 60% of the vote in?

Lol Bernie still claimed victory in a State he lost.

[NOVA Green]

Culinary Union ready to go HAM against Sanders:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1227442725110403077?s=20

Seems for this to be effective they would need to actively push an alternative? Doesn't make sense to just be anti-Sanders with a million other choices.

The Reid Machine Strikes back....

Episode Two... the Revenge of the Jedi

[adamevans]

LOL at Buttigieg claiming he's won New Hampshire.

I know right?! Bernie would never claim victory in a State he lost! Gosh what a rat!

Lmao. Are you talking about Iowa where Buttigieg went on TV to claim victory with about 60% of the vote in?

You mean 0% of the vote in.

[YE]

I'm glad his victory margin is so underwhelming.

He doesn't have the suburban appeal to beat Trump.

This was the same argument made by Orange County Republicans in why Katie Porter couldn't win.

At the end of the day....people will vote their identity regardless of the nominee or their ideology

I wouldn't say Philly Romney-Clinton voters would safely identify themselves as Democrats though.

Sanders probably would keep most Romney-Clinton voters.  He'd have a huge problem keeping any Trump-2018 Dem voters, though, and he needs them to win the EC. 

I want to expand Democratic gains in the suburbs... the candidates who are best equipped for that, in my opinion, are Klobuchar and Bloomberg.

I don't think candidate quality matters much with how polarizing Trump is. Our politics today are strictly along cultural lines. The same reason why Dems are fading in working class areas are the same reason why Romney-Clinton areas are likely to vote against Trump again.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Culinary Union ready to go HAM against Sanders:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1227442725110403077?s=20

Seems for this to be effective they would need to actively push an alternative? Doesn't make sense to just be anti-Sanders with a million other choices.

The Reid Machine Strikes back....

Episode Two... the Revenge of the Jedi

Have you ever seen a Star Wars movie, NOVA Green?

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways the NH primary county map is basically a 2012 GE map (Pete=Romney & Bernie=Obama)

[Dr. Arch]

Anyways the NH primary county map is basically a 2012 GE map (Pete=Romney & Bernie=Obama)

 

[atheist4thecause]

CNN just changed projections to be 9 delegats for Sanders, 9 for Buttigieg and 6 for Klobuchar. They had it 8-7-6 with 3 unaccounted for.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

[Dr. Arch]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I'm glad his victory margin is so underwhelming.

He doesn't have the suburban appeal to beat Trump.

This was the same argument made by Orange County Republicans in why Katie Porter couldn't win.

At the end of the day....people will vote their identity regardless of the nominee or their ideology

I wouldn't say Philly Romney-Clinton voters would safely identify themselves as Democrats though.

Romney-Clinton voters are about as uniformly liberal Democrat nowadays as Obama-Clinton voters and multiple studies have confirmed that

do you know of any study in specific?

[It’s so Joever]

Heart attack boi: 9
Ratman: 9
Snow women: 6

[Calthrina950]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

[Santander]

Why is Klobuchar gaining steam? Other than being pro-choice and pro-women, she seems to me to be obsessed with beinf a centrist on almost every issue. She likes to describe her beliefs and policies in ambiguous ways that COULD sound leftist but could also sound centrist (which they are).

Are so many voters at their cores moderates?

Uh, yes?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Imagine telling this forum in early October that, at any point during the primaries:

1. Pete Buttigieg would get more delegates than Elizabeth Warren
2. Amy Klobuchar would get more delegates than Joe Biden

[emailking]

Culinary Union ready to go HAM against Sanders:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1227442725110403077?s=20

Seems for this to be effective they would need to actively push an alternative? Doesn't make sense to just be anti-Sanders with a million other choices.

The Reid Machine Strikes back....

Episode Two... the Revenge of the Jedi

Have you ever seen a Star Wars movie, NOVA Green?

Empire is the best of the OT. Sith is the best of the PT. Either Last Jedi or ROS is the best overall. Honorable Mention: Rogue 1.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Heart attack boi: 9
Ratman: 9
Snow women: 6

My main squeeze 雪女 doesn't deserve this analogy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has any presidential candidate ever won any primary with less than 26% of the vote.  I found a couple examples of candidates winning with 27%, but no one lower than Sanders tonight as far as I can tell. (Santorum won the Iowa caucus with ~24%.)

Going through the primaries now, but here's the 1976 Massachusetts Democratic primary (per Wikipedia)


Scoop Jackson     22.34
Morris Udall         17.73
George Wallace    16.73
Jimmy Carter       13.86
Fred Harris            7.57
Sargent Shriver     7.24
Birch Bayh            4.75
Ellen McCormack   3.50
Milton Shapp         2.95
Uncommitted        1.33
Lloyd Bentsen       0.05

Nice find!  I'd never heard of Ellen McCormack before.  Apparently she was a housewife who ran as an anti-abortion activist.

[Dr. Arch]

It looks like we're beating 2008 turnout! ~10% to go, and we're just 10,000 shy.

[atheist4thecause]

Trump is going to be able to continue to hammer home that Sanders has won the popular vote in every state yet has fewer delegates than Buttigieg and hasn't won more delegates than the other candidates in any state yet. How Democratic are the Democrats?

[PSOL]

Trump is going to be able to continue to hammer home that Sanders has won the popular vote in every state yet has fewer delegates than Buttigieg and hasn't won more delegates than the other candidates in any state yet. How Democratic are the Democrats?

Irrelevant once Sanders wins the nomination.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Has any presidential candidate ever won any primary with less than 26% of the vote.  I found a couple examples of candidates winning with 27%, but no one lower than Sanders tonight as far as I can tell. (Santorum won the Iowa caucus with ~24%.)

Going through the primaries now, but here's the 1976 Massachusetts Democratic primary (per Wikipedia)


Scoop Jackson     22.34
Morris Udall         17.73
George Wallace    16.73
Jimmy Carter       13.86
Fred Harris            7.57
Sargent Shriver     7.24
Birch Bayh            4.75
Ellen McCormack   3.50
Milton Shapp         2.95
Uncommitted        1.33
Lloyd Bentsen       0.05

Nice find!  I'd never heard of Ellen McCormack before.  Apparently she was a housewife who ran as an anti-abortion activist.

The first paragraph of her Wikipedia under the "Life" heading describes a 1920s-40s Irish-American Catholic girlhood and young-womanhood that's normie to the point of archetype. Paging Mary McCarthy!