New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Tintrlvr]

Warren did manage to win a town, or at least tie one: she tied Sanders for first in Monroe Town, a small Connecticut River town.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm.

Good night for Pete, now he must carry on the momentum to NV and SC.

[BP🌹]

Hmm.

Good night for Pete, now he must carry on the momentum to NV and SC.

[atheist4thecause]

It's crazy to think that Bernie's campaign would've probably been finished after tonight if Klobuchar didn't go after Pete in the debate. Still an underwhelming victory for him, but he's still in the game.

Yeah, he's been the frontrunner for a month now, and co-frontrunner for a few months. I don't understand why they never attack him. They really have to do it if any of them actually wants to win the nomination.

No, they don't. Liberals just need to knock each other out and consolidate the Liberal base. They will then pass over Sanders, who has a ceiling, and they will become the nominee. Sanders supporters don't leave him anyways, which is why Warren is failing.

[Beet]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

Politics is never that simple, a lot of those Klobuchar second preferences are for Warren. Furthermore a lot of the younger Buttigeg supporters are not going to go to Biden or Amy and would go to Yang.

Yeah by that standard, NH '16

Not Trump: 65%
Trump 35%

"If it wasn't for the split in the traditional Republican vote, Trump wouldn't even be competitive."

Edit: Also relevant to the post above. Anyway, I'd just love to see one candidate for once passionately go after Sanders.

[Koharu]

Well, here's hoping Klobuchar can do better in the South than Mayor Pete.

[Tender Branson]

If Pete can net 90 votes in each of the 44 remaining precincts, he can still catch Bernie ...

[NOVA Green]

Culinary Union ready to go HAM against Sanders:

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1227442725110403077?s=20

Seems for this to be effective they would need to actively push an alternative? Doesn't make sense to just be anti-Sanders with a million other choices.

The Reid Machine Strikes back....

Episode Two... the Revenge of the Jedi

Have you ever seen a Star Wars movie, NOVA Green?

Yes--- first time I saw Star Wars was in a Drive-In Movie theater at a young tender age of Five ()...

Remember vividly the opening scenes with Darth Vader and Princess Leah and all that, and then my little Sister freaks out like 20 Minutes in, just when the s**t is getting really cool....

Fine little Sis freaks out, we go back to same drive in with this awesome movie a Year later or something like that, and watch the full movie.

Empire Strikes Back hits live in theater (not a drive in) and to this present day is my favorite Star Wars movie

Next thing you know Star Wars Toys from my Grandparents for Birthdays and X-Mas are flowing down left right and center somewhere around the early '80s....

Curiously enough Star Wars might have been a reason why I supported Ronald Reagan as a Young lad, combined with the history of WW II where where Grandfather fought during the Battle of the Bulge, and next thing you know I'm sending off to enlist in West Point with all of their recruiting glossy photos....

Wasn't allowed to watch Rambo or Red Dawn (Which was kinda of a thing back in the dazy)....

Listening to NPR and watching on our small B&W  TV it was pretty clear that the Reagan Administration was guilty....

Final straw was when the US Military shot down that Iranian Civilian Airliner back in the late '80s, combined with the exposing of the "Dirty Wars" in Central America, which I was already familiar with from the murder at the hands of the Salvadoran Fascist Government, where Four American Nuns were brutally raped and murdered at the hands of the Reagan regime....

Ok--- Totally OT you gave me the trigger and I fired, and would be more than supportive if the mods mute this post for being OT....

Star Wars is always cool Rebels against Empire (Maybe my inner Irish is kicking in a bit...)

[Adam Griffin]

The haters need to come to terms with a very simple set of conclusions:

1) Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee
or
2) Donald Trump will serve as President until January 2025

In the words of the great Tiffany "New York" Pollard, y'all need to know that "Bernie ain't going no motherf[inks]ing where! Bernie is in the motherf[inks]ing house! Just live with that! Just be content with that. Live with it, moderates! Suck that s[inks]t up, whether you wanna breathe it in" or what have you.

[Tender Branson]

If Pete can net 90 votes in each of the 44 remaining precincts, he can still catch Bernie ...

Now 85 votes per remaining 43 precincts and he’s even with Bernie.

[atheist4thecause]

Well, here's hoping Klobuchar can do better in the South than Mayor Pete.

Klobuchar has Minnesota on Super Tuesday. Minnesota has the 5th most delegates on Tuesday with 75, more than all states leading up to Tuesday. Not only can Klobuchar win Minnesota, she can run it up. It's a state that is out of the way a bit and largely rural so candidates will probably mostly want to spend their time in other states. That's good for Klobuchar, who has the natural advantage. If nobody forces Klobuchar to spend to defend Minnesota, she can spend her money and time elsewhere, too.

Warren has her home state in Massachusetts, but I don't think the home field advantage there is as strong. She didn't get much of an advantage from bordering New Hampshire, but Amy Klobuchar showed advantage in Iowa form Minnesota. No other candidates have any home field advantages. Amy having the good showing in Iowa and better showing in NH allows her to benefit from that home state advantage. Warren is fading so much she might not even benefit.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Pete can net 90 votes in each of the 44 remaining precincts, he can still catch Bernie ...

Now 85 votes per remaining 43 precincts and he’s even with Bernie.

"This is how Pete can still win!"

[Adam Griffin]

Klobberer isn't going to win MN, and Warren isn't going to win MA. By the time Super Tuesday rolls around, Warren will likely have dropped out and Klobberer will be back at 5% nationally.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess we're not getting the remaining 5% of the vote tonight?

[Florida Man for Crime]

If Pete can net 90 votes in each of the 44 remaining precincts, he can still catch Bernie ...

They are not precincts, they are towns. Furthermore, a lot of the ones for which no results are reported will have 0 votes, because they are unpopulated rural areas in Coos county where only wild animals live. All the gray = 0 votes.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I guess we're not getting the remaining 5% of the vote tonight?

Nah. I think they'll start trickling in throughout the morning/early afternoon

[NOVA Green]

Impressive turnout tonight, in contrast to Iowa. It's almost as if the voters could smell the caucuses being *#!@ from earlier in the day.

It is almost as if Iowa is trending strongly GOP and New Hampshire is not.

Indy Voters are likely the main reason when it comes to NH....

Thought Trump would perform worse than he did, but entirely plausible that some of these same voters switched over in NH....

[Orser67]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

So it can be as eventful as 1976 or boring as 1996.

Does that make Bloomberg the Jerry Brown of this primary?

[Fight for Trump]

Imagine telling this forum in early October that, at any point during the primaries:

1. Pete Buttigieg would get more delegates than Elizabeth Warren
2. Amy Klobuchar would get more delegates than Joe Biden

I have been calling Amy K a top contender for years and was laughed off. Klobuchar/Booker was my original 2020 ticket prediction from 2016, and I'm sticking by it. Remember, I called every state to flip to Trump back in 2016 (in April), and in correct order, too. (except Michigan)

Booker
Klobuchar
Warren
Hassan
Newsom

Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, the list goes on.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

Interesting that Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won New Hampshire rather than the other way around given Iowa's streak of favoring the most religious right-friendly candidate in the Republican caucus in the twenty-first century.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

Interesting that Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won New Hampshire rather than the other way around given Iowa's streak of favoring the most religious right-friendly candidate in the Republican caucus in the twenty-first century.

Not really Ford did better in IA than NH in 76 , HW beat Reagan in IA in 1980, and Dole beat HW in 1988.

[Adam Griffin]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

Interesting that Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won New Hampshire rather than the other way around given Iowa's streak of favoring the most religious right-friendly candidate in the Republican caucus in the twenty-first century.

Not really Ford did better in IA than NH in 76 , HW beat Reagan in IA in 1980, and Dole beat HW in 1988.

But the real question is: are you ever going to learn that neither party still lives in the 1970s or 1980s?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

Interesting that Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won New Hampshire rather than the other way around given Iowa's streak of favoring the most religious right-friendly candidate in the Republican caucus in the twenty-first century.

Buchanan also went heavily on the protectionism angle, which helped in New Hampshire.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

Interesting that Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won New Hampshire rather than the other way around given Iowa's streak of favoring the most religious right-friendly candidate in the Republican caucus in the twenty-first century.

Not really Ford did better in IA than NH in 76 , HW beat Reagan in IA in 1980, and Dole beat HW in 1988.

But the real question is: are you ever going to learn that neither party still lives in the 1970s or 1980s?

Thats not what I am saying lol , I was responding to the point that Buchanan did better in NH than IA.