New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[TJ in Oregon]

Unstickying the Iowa Caucus thread and opening this one for discussion for New Hampshire.

Ongoing discussion of the results in Iowa should remain in the other thread.


Results:
NYT Results
CNN Results
DDHQ results

Misc:
The Needle
538 blog

[Grassroots]

YES

[Hindsight was 2020]

Saint Bernard in a landslide folks

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Saint Bernard in a landslide folks

I feel like Butt will win when the Biden and Warren supporters go to him to try to stop Bernie

[Hindsight was 2020]

Saint Bernard in a landslide folks

I feel like Butt will win when the Biden and Warren supporters go to him to try to stop Bernie

I know Pete got momentum in the tracking poll but this is still Bernie’s backward

[Sorenroy]

This feels a little premature, especially to sticky. We've still got both a debate and three full days before the day of the primary, and the Iowa thread was put up day of.

[T'Chenka]

Bernard Sanders will win New Hampshire and Buttigieg will likely look really good for a second state in a row, seeing as it's a fairly white state. Biden will continue to struggle.

[JGibson]

Hoping and praying Warren does really well here; otherwise, it may be it for her. I say this as a campaign volunteer for her.

[kriksB]

Getting really worried that Buttigieg is gonna run away with New Hampshire.

[cvparty]

it looks like a buttigieg-sanders-warren-biden repeat is *possible* which would be interesting...

[ElectionsGuy]

Theory about New Hampshire: The polls will be wrong in a way that benefits somebody that did not win the Iowa caucus. In 2008, polls were off by 11 points underestimating Clinton. In 2016, polls were off by 9 points underestimating Sanders. Will the same hold true in 2020?

It's probably a hot garbage idea but who knows.

[Gass3268]

Here is a really great spreadsheet with New Hamsphire data by town:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1225494880098623489?s=20

[cvparty]

Theory about New Hampshire: The polls will be wrong in a way that benefits somebody that did not win the Iowa caucus. In 2008, polls were off by 11 points underestimating Clinton. In 2016, polls were off by 9 points underestimating Sanders. Will the same hold true in 2020?

It's probably a hot garbage idea but who knows.

true, i wouldn't be surprised. iowa was way off with biden (being too high) and buttigieg (being low) so even if a candidate is leading we can't have too much confidence. as far as first alignment goes though, the sanders #s were pretty accurate

[mgop]

lets go new hampshire, another crushing blow for biden.

[DanPrazeres]

Depending on today's debate, I think that Biden voters will stop Buttgieg little momentum and turn primaries a bigger confusion, with Sanders running free. But I believe Warren will overpeform on debate, and it can mess with the things.

[Eraserhead]

I worry it could be painfully close.

[redjohn]

The close poll makes me worry. It's critical that Sanders wins NH, to maximize his chances of winning in NV and prove his strength among voters. If Sanders loses NH I think his path weakens considerably.

[Gass3268]

I worry it could be painfully close.

Hopefully they know how to count better than Iowa.

[Gracile]

My general thoughts:

-I still think Sanders is the favorite here, though I think it might be closer than expected.
-Warren needs to get 1st or 2nd here to be seen as a viable candidate.
-If Buttigieg loses NH, his chances at winning the nomination will be greatly diminished going into the (more unfavorable for him) NV and SC contests.
-I don't see Biden doing well here, especially if some of his prospective voters go to Buttigieg.
-Klobuchar's numbers will probably come down to earth from her IA performance.

[Mehmentum]

Sanders will win by 3-5%.

Many of Sanders' rural WWC voters have left the party, and the suburbanites who have joined are much friendlier to Buttigieg.  Still, Sanders' state is neighboring, and New Hampshire has a tendency to vote contrary to Iowa. 

It'll be close, and the media will play it as a strong result for Buttigeig.  Sanders's strength compared to last cycle is with minorities, but unfortunately our primary calendar is still biased towards whites, so we aren't getting a good gauge of Sanders' coalition yet.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My general thoughts:

-I still think Sanders is the favorite here, though I think it might be closer than expected.
-Warren needs to get 1st or 2nd here to be seen as a viable candidate.
-If Buttigieg loses NH, his chances at winning the nomination will be greatly diminished going into the (more unfavorable for him) NV and SC contests.
-I don't see Biden doing well here, especially if some of his prospective voters go to Buttigieg.
-Klobuchar's numbers will probably come down to earth from her IA performance.

I agree. I think Warren shouldn't be underestimated due to proximity to Boston, NH being a wealthier state than IA and her taking support of leftists who aren't radical and people who want a woman in the white house. Biden seems to on the losing end here. He'll end fourth, maybe fifth and not be viable for at large delegates, although he might get delegates in CD-2.

[2016]

Pete won Iowa in a Squeaker so I would go with Bernie winning this one in a Squeaker.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1225868728539254785

SOS predicts 292K voters will turnout in the D side in 2020. This would beat the 253K of 2016 and the 287K of 2008. Considering it was the suburbs/universities that boosted Iowa turnout, and NH has a lot of them, this isn't too outlandish.

[Bidenworth2020]

Theory about New Hampshire: The polls will be wrong in a way that benefits somebody that did not win the Iowa caucus. In 2008, polls were off by 11 points underestimating Clinton. In 2016, polls were off by 9 points underestimating Sanders. Will the same hold true in 2020?

It's probably a hot garbage idea but who knows.

Really depends on what you mean by "winning", especially considering the circumstances around the primary. I would not say that Sanders lost, for example. Anyway, that basically leaves Warren and Biden, both of whom I do not see doing especially well in New Hampshire.

[Vern]

Mayor Pete for the win