New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Walmart_shopper]

Democrats' new focus: "uneducated white women between 40-64 who make $200k per year"!

This is probably outré to say in 2020, but I'm fairly certain that the money those uneducated women between the ages of 40 and 64 "make" isn't actually made by them.

[jimrtex]

	Sanders	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Warren	Biden
NH-1	25.6%	24.2%	20.2%	8.9%	8.8%
NH-2	26.2%	24.2%	19.4%	9.6%	8.6%
NH-AL	25.9%	24.2%	19.8%	9.3%	8.7%

This is with 90% on DDHQ. CNN has the margin down to 1.5% statewide, which should make the margin in NH-1 just over 1%.

Note that a reversal of the Top 2 would make no difference in the delegate count. The top candidate would need 40% more than the second candidate (or around 10% of the total vote to get a 4-2-2 split in a CD.

[wbrocks67]

MSNBC has been talking about nothing but Buttigieg & Klobuchar for the last 30 minutes. If it wasn't for the graphic showing Bernie as the winner, you'd think he wasn't even on the ballot

This was not a good result for Bernard. He got less than half the votes he did in 2016, did not bring too many new voters into the fold, and nearly lost to Pete and Amy, in a state he walloped HRC in just 4 years ago.

[mgop]

Now is obviously two way race between Sanders and Buttigieg. Others are done, you can't lose this badly in two states and hope for nomination.

[Brittain33]

Now is obviously two way race between Sanders and Buttigieg. Others are done, you can't lose this badly in two states and hope for nomination.

How do you reckon that Klobuchar doesn’t get a bounce from this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sanders - 26%
Buttigeig - 24%
Klobuchar - 19%
Warren - 13%
Biden 9%
Gabbard - 3%
Yang - 3%
Steyer 2%
Bennet - 1%
Others - 1%

So, my prediction was almost spot on out side warren.

Very good!  I also had Sanders 26, Buttigieg 24, but underestimated Klobuchar and overestimated Biden.  I thought both of them and Warren would all be clustered in the 12-15 range.

[Crumpets]

MSNBC has been talking about nothing but Buttigieg & Klobuchar for the last 30 minutes. If it wasn't for the graphic showing Bernie as the winner, you'd think he wasn't even on the ballot

Given that Bernie was meant to wipe the floor 6-0 6-0 6-0, the fact that Pete and Amy got on the board and were competitive is the actual news story worth listening too.

It could be the start of the Pete and Amy show.

Pete appealed to uneducated white women between 40-64 who earnt $120,000-$200,000 per annum.

Amy appealed to highly educated people.

Sanders appeared to the socialists.

Uneducated white women aged 40-64 making six figures?

Assuming uneducated means that they didn't get a college degree, how many of these women do you think there are?

I'm pretty sure this described my mom at one point. She never told me her exact income, but I'd guess it was in that range.

And guess what? She's supporting Buttigieg.

[Canis]

Did weld come close in any towns?

[jaichind]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

[Shadows]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

This is a ridiculous & nonsensical analysis given that a majority of voters in exit polls expressed support for Medicare for all & free college.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227427722441510912?ref_src=tw...

Anybody want to tell him?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1227605198216028160?s=20

[Middle-aged Europe]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

Considering that 2016 had only two candidates who received more than 1,000 votes in the NH primary and 2020 had nine of them, it's safe to assume that a lot of Bernie's 2016 support went to other candidates like Warren, Tulsi, Yang, and probably even some of the "moderates". Just because you cast a vote for Bernie doesn't mean you're a stereotypical "Berniebro". Back in 2016, Bernie was effectively the only candidate you could vote for if you didn't like Hillary. Nowadays, you have at least a handful of candidates to vote for if you don't like Biden.

[Oryxslayer]

Just eyeballing the differences in results between NYT/AP and DDHQ it looks like everything can be considered 'reporting' except for three towns in western Hillsborough.

[Hnv1]

Did weld come close in any towns?

I see he got 30% in Hanover

he won Landaff but there were less than 10 voters

[Grassroots]

The Sanders supporters here are a little ticked off today. Didn't he win?

[Oryxslayer]

Just eyeballing the differences in results between NYT/AP and DDHQ it looks like everything can be considered 'reporting' except for three towns in western Hillsborough.

Did a bit of napkin math. NYT presently has the Bernie lead at 3.7K, 1.3%. Adding what we know from DDHQ to NYT, Bernie adds 959 Votes, Pete 898, Klob 687. From there, we are only missing Temple, Washington, and Lyndeborough. Sanders could net a tiny bit from those towns judging by their neighbors. So 1.4% could be the final margin.

[Illini Moderate]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

This is a ridiculous & nonsensical analysis given that a majority of voters in exit polls expressed support for Medicare for all & free college.

I agree that the analysis isn’t a great one, however many people can express support for M4A without actually agreeing with Bernies path to getting there. That explains the drop in support that happens in polling when you mention M4A eliminating private health insurance. Additionally, even if one may support Bernie’s approach to M4A, it does not mean that they support him. My mother, for example, supports Bernie’s M4A, but not his plan for the Green New Deal, Federal jobs guarantee, student loan cancellation, or  free college. She supports the concepts behind all these policies, but not the extreme amount of spending that they require. That’s why she supports Biden. She’s not a super informed voter either, but the “free everything” approach is a big turn off for her.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The Sanders supporters here are a little ticked off today. Didn't he win?

Grassr00ts, be nice

[Gracile]

The Sanders supporters here are a little ticked off today. Didn't he win?

Yes, he did. It's very kind of you as a Buttigieg supporter to acknowledge that.

[Grassroots]

The Sanders supporters here are a little ticked off today. Didn't he win?

Yes, he did. It's very kind of you as a Buttigieg supporter to acknowledge that.

Then why are you guys ticked off?

[Tintrlvr]

Did weld come close in any towns?

I see he got 30% in Hanover

he won Landaff but there were less than 10 voters

He also did quite well in New Castle (a wealthy island suburb of Portsmouth, easternmost town in the state) with 27%.

Write-ins won Landaff, though Weld placed ahead of Trump, who got zero votes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

This is a ridiculous & nonsensical analysis given that a majority of voters in exit polls expressed support for Medicare for all & free college.

Because exit polls are far more accurate than the actual votes.

[European Lefty]

So, so far, out of two states Sanders was supposed to win, he's come second in one, but sort of, but not really, but actually; and won the other with an underwhelming margin to say the least. Even if being the only candidate to compete for every state (Biden hasn't yet, Klobuchar and Buttigieg almost certainly won't) means he ends up with a plurality of delegates, surely his path to the nomination is incredibly narrow, if it even still exists?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

This is a ridiculous & nonsensical analysis given that a majority of voters in exit polls expressed support for Medicare for all & free college.

I agree that the analysis isn’t a great one, however many people can express support for M4A without actually agreeing with Bernies path to getting there. That explains the drop in support that happens in polling when you mention M4A eliminating private health insurance. Additionally, even if one may support Bernie’s approach to M4A, it does not mean that they support him. My mother, for example, supports Bernie’s M4A, but not his plan for the Green New Deal, Federal jobs guarantee, student loan cancellation, or  free college. She supports the concepts behind all these policies, but not the extreme amount of spending that they require. That’s why she supports Biden. She’s not a super informed voter either, but the “free everything” approach is a big turn off for her.

Yeah, my biggest issue with Bernie's healthcare plan has nothing that he supports universal healthcare (something I've supported for about 15 years or so).  Instead, it's that it completely eliminates private health insurance without giving folks who can afford it and prefer it to public healthcare the option to choose for themselves.  I think everyone (especially the wealthy) should have to pay higher taxes to fund a public option regardless of whether they choose private or public healthcare.  

However, the idea of depriving folks who can afford a higher quality private healthcare plan of the right to choose that over a government plan is a non-starter for me and the only reason it doesn't make me a diehard #NeverBernie voter in the primary season is because there's no way he'd ever be able to get such a thing through Congress.  If a hypothetical President Sanders tried to do so, I'd certainly call and write every Democratic representative from my state to express my opposition to the proposal, as well as seriously consider donating to anyone with a real shot at successfully primarying any congressional Democrat who voted for it.  

Side note: Pete's line about how the meaning of M4A has changed is actually pretty spot on.  It used to be that people used it as a stand in for universal healthcare and recognized that there were tons of ways to potentially achieve that goal.  However, now many folks thing M4A means "eliminate all private healthcare and replace it with a mandatory government program" (i.e. the average person's perception of Bernie's healthcare plan).  As such, there's nothing inconsistent about having supported M4A four years ago and opposing what it has come to mean.  In fact, many Democrats have done just that.