International COVID-19 Megathread

[Helsinkian]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

Absurd details have begun to surface regarding this episode. Finland's National Emergency Supply Agency, which is supposed to ensure that there is a sufficient national stockpile of important stuff in the event of crisis, did not directly order the masks, but instead contracted two Finnish individuals to get them from China.

The problem is that those two individuals are shady. One is a former payday-lender with unpaid debts; the other is a Finnish woman running a "beauty business" in Estonia who has been convicted of financial crimes.

The agency agreed to pay five million euros to both in exchange for them supplying the surgical masks and respirators. The payday-lender received the payment (for the shipment that recently arrived containing supplies unsuited for hospital use). The woman with the "beauty business" did not receive her payment: her Estonian bank froze her account because the bank flagged the transaction as possible moneylaundering.

Now the woman is claiming that the payday-lender improperly got the deal she was supposed to get. The payday-lender had a stone thrown through his window and is claiming that the woman contracted the Finnish chapter of Hells Angels to collect the five million from him (the Hells Angels denied this in a tweet).

Now the director of the National Emergency Supply Agency has been forced to resign for failing to properly vet the people used to acquire the supplies.

[T'Chenka]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

Absurd details have begun to surface regarding this episode. Finland's National Emergency Supply Agency, which is supposed to ensure that there is a sufficient national stockpile of important stuff in the event of crisis, did not directly order the masks, but instead contracted two Finnish individuals to get them from China.

The problem is that those two individuals are shady. One is a former payday-lender with unpaid debts; the other is a Finnish woman running a "beauty business" in Estonia who has been convicted of financial crimes.

The agency agreed to pay five million euros to both in exchange for them supplying the surgical masks and respirators. The payday-lender received the payment (for the shipment that recently arrived containing supplies unsuited for hospital use). The woman with the "beauty business" did not receive her payment: her Estonian bank froze her account because the bank flagged the transaction as possible moneylaundering.

Now the woman is claiming that the payday-lender improperly got the deal she was supposed to get. The payday-lender had a stone thrown through his window and is claiming that the woman contracted the Finnish chapter of Hells Angels to collect the five million from him (the Hells Angels denied this in a tweet).

Now the director of the National Emergency Supply Agency has been forced to resign for failing to properly vet the people used to acquire the supplies.

Perkele...

This could have all been avoided if Finnsh government practiced proper anti-pandemic health measures such as raking the forests, et cetera.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Here are some predictive graphs from the 'Active Case' work I have been doing.

Basically, the solid line is data. The dashed line is hypothetical.

Germany



Germany on the smooth path down. 24,500 recoveries added to make this curve.


Spain



I have added 40,000 recoveries to the Spanish dataset to make this curve.


Italy



I have added 65,000 recoveries to the Italian dataset to make this curve.


USA



This one is the hardest to predict as the growth continues in one area of the country whilst receding in others. Overall the growth continues upwards, albeit at a flatter pace.

No recoveries added to this dataset.

As time progresses, the new data added will replace and influence the predicted decay curve on the right. The data 'updates' the model so to speak.

In terms of Growth of Active Cases, when all plotted on the same graph, we get:



The point at which growth drops through zero is the 'predicted' date of the peak of the curve.

[Tender Branson]

Austria - Saturday morning update:

  13.672 positive cases (Friday morning: 13.404, +268, +2.0%)
    1.036 hospitalized (1.032, +4) - of which:
       246 in ICUs (261, -15)
       337 dead (319, +18)

    6.604 recovered (6.064, +540)

140.975 tests performed

https://bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A7171477A51625143334D3D

Active cases and recovered cases now almost even at 7.000 each.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kaczyński doesn't have to observe stupid restrictions.

Image link

Hmmm, any comments on this?

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

After a bad day yesterday, the number of new infected grew just 3% and ICU patients and hospitalized maintained steady:

Positive cases: 15,987 (+515)
Deaths: 470 (+35)
Recoveries: 266 (+33)
Patients in ICU: 233 (+7)
Patients hospitalized: 1,175 (-4)

161,475 tests conducted since March 1st.

[Tender Branson]

A Vienna fruit market today:

Image Link

Police: wear masks, keep 2m distance from each other !

People: Let’s give a sh*t.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ugh...

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK

Party of 10 flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa


A group of would-be holidaymakers who flew in a private jet from London to the Côte d’Azur in France have been turned back by police.

Seven men and three women arrived on the chartered aircraft to Marseille-Provence airport, where helicopters were waiting to fly them on to Cannes, where they had rented a luxury villa.

The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK.

“They were coming for a holiday in Cannes and three helicopters were waiting on the tarmac,” a border police spokesperson told Agence France-Presse. “We notified them they were not allowed to enter the national territory and they left four hours later.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/french-police-turn-back-private-jet-of-holidaymakers-from-uk

Lock them up!

[dead0man]

link in German

The study also makes new statements on the coronavirus mortality rate. So far, the renowned Johns Hopkins University assumes that 1.98 percent of those infected die in Germany. Due to the fact that the Heinsberger study now also includes previously undiscovered infections and the total number of corona sufferers is higher, the death rate for Gangelt is only 0.37 percent.

A total of around 1,000 people took part in the study. The interim results now available come from around half of the subjects.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Just updating today's data with new predictive graphs. Sunday is pretty quiet, so I will do it again on Monday.

UK



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 77,072 Active Cases on April 18

First things first. I have added 8,200 recoveries to the UK data.

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

What does this say about the reported UK data?

It says the numbers are most likely missing something. It is highly unlikely that 50% of a normal population of cases tested on March 28 have died according to the data reported.

Hence the UK dataset needs to be looked at more carefully over time. My suspicion is that if the mortality numbers are correct, then:

• the initial reported cases are under-representative of wider community spread; and
• they are only testing really sick people.

France



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 101,671 Active Cases on April 19

Same technique as above.  

Total Cases listed on 28 March = 37,575
Recoveries listed today = 26,391
Deaths between 28 March and now = 13,832 - 2,314 = 11,518

Recoveries plus Deaths =  37,900

Hence the French dataset is pretty close to being straight, so no need to add any recoveries in this case.

[President Johnson]

Ursula von der Leyen now urging Germans not yet book vacation for the summer months. I think this is dangerous. Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Croatia heavily depend on the tourism industry. These countries, are have been struggling already, can't afford to sit one summer out. It's just not possible by any means. With all due respect, we need to be careful that the "medicine" isn't more deadly than the virus itsself.

[Tender Branson]

Ursula von der Leyen now urging Germans not yet book vacation for the summer months. I think this is dangerous. Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Croatia heavily depend on the tourism industry. These countries, are have been struggling already, can't afford to sit one summer out. It's just not possible by any means. With all due respect, we need to be careful that the "medicine" isn't more deadly than the virus itsself.

Tourism is a big share of GDP, but not dominating. It's somewhere between 5-20% for each country.

And while the low number of German tourists would hurt badly, this can be compensated by "patriotic" holiday making of domestic people. For example, the average Austrian should vacation in Austria this summer. And not only once, but twice or three times. That way, the losses would not be as tough, as experts have said.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Sunday morning update (comparison to Saturday morning):

All positive cases: 13.945 (+273, +2%)

Patients hospitalized: 1.035 (-1) - of which:
Patients in ICU: 243 (-3)

Deaths: 350 (+13)

Recoveries: 6.987 (+383)

Tests conducted: 144.877

Link

There are now more recovered cases than active cases.

[Mike88]

Ursula von der Leyen now urging Germans not yet book vacation for the summer months. I think this is dangerous. Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Croatia heavily depend on the tourism industry. These countries, are have been struggling already, can't afford to sit one summer out. It's just not possible by any means. With all due respect, we need to be careful that the "medicine" isn't more deadly than the virus itsself.

Tourism is a big share of GDP, but not dominating. It's somewhere between 5-20% for each country.

And while the low number of German tourists would hurt badly, this can be compensated by "patriotic" holiday making of domestic people. For example, the average Austrian should vacation in Austria this summer. And not only once, but twice or three times. That way, the losses would not be as tough, as experts have said.

According to data, tourism is 19% of Portugal's GDP while Greece, Croatia and Cyprus are above 20% of GDP. Spain and Italy are at 14% and 13% respectably. No doubt that the huge fall of tourism will hurt the economies, particularly Portugal as the economic surge we had in the last few years was mainly a result in a boom in tourism services, construction of hotels, and many people creating businesses based on tourists. I understand what Ursula von der Leyen is saying, but this will hurt deeply the economies, particularly of the more smaller countries which have less resources and more vulnerabilities.

And today, a survey done by UCP-CESOP for RTP and Público newspaper, shows a grim picture of the economic impact on the pandemic in Portugal:

Q: How is your working situation right now?

35.5% Working in my regular work place
23.2% Telework
20.4% No activity
13.4% Lay off
  4.0% Unemployed
  3.3% Assisting family members
  0.2% Studing

Q: Telework experience: Rate of productivity

34% The same
32% Less
17% More
14% Much less
  3% Much more

Q: Wages: How has your income being affected?

61% Same
36% Earning less
  1% Earning more
  3% Didn't respond

% of wage loss by monthly income:

43% Until 1,000 euros
36% Between 1,000 and 2,500 euros
23% More than 2,500 euros

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 April 2020. Polled 1,700 people. MoE of 2.4%.

[FrancoAgo]

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

afaik the recovery time is estimated from 2 weeks to 6 weeks, so take the minimum heavy influence the data and the analysis

[Lechasseur]

Boris Johnson is now out of the hospital

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-52262012

[Meclazine for Israel]

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

afaik the recovery time is estimated from 2 weeks to 6 weeks, so take the minimum heavy influence the data and the analysis

WHO have said : "Using available preliminary data, the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks."

That is a mean which works well on large datasets.

Just post your analysis of what is going on. I cant spend time to constantly refute claims like these. This is the third time you have attempted some minor contrarian point of order which in the scheme of the discussion is meaningless.

Just write your version of events as you see it with a fresh perspective.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

they are only testing really sick people.

This is indeed what is happening.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/04/12/corona-fines-for-partygoers-court-for-non-essential-journeys/

Corona fines for partygoers, court for non-essential journeys

[Tintrlvr]

Just updating today's data with new predictive graphs. Sunday is pretty quiet, so I will do it again on Monday.

UK



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 77,072 Active Cases on April 18

First things first. I have added 8,200 recoveries to the UK data.

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

What does this say about the reported UK data?

It says the numbers are most likely missing something. It is highly unlikely that 50% of a normal population of cases tested on March 28 have died according to the data reported.

Hence the UK dataset needs to be looked at more carefully over time. My suspicion is that if the mortality numbers are correct, then:

• the initial reported cases are under-representative of wider community spread; and
• they are only testing really sick people.

One flaw with this logic is the underlying assumption that all of the deaths since March 28 are people who had tested positive by March 28. While it takes at least a couple of weeks from infection to death, it's a flawed assumption that you have two weeks from a positive test until death. Probably a lot of the deaths are people who got tested when already very sick and died within a few days of testing, if not almost immediately or even whose positive results weren't reported until after they died, which does improve the survival rate of people who had tested positive by March 28.

It is obvious that the UK is not testing anyone but very, very sick patients, though. I do question the logic of this; there doesn't seem to be much value to knowing whether a patient in the ICU in respiratory distress has coronavirus. At this point, it's basically guaranteed that they do. Testing should be focused much more on mild cases where the flu, the common cold, allergies, etc. are also plausible causes and oriented away from hospital emergency rooms. (This also goes for the US, where at least here in NYC the approach on testing is similar.)

[parochial boy]

Just updating today's data with new predictive graphs. Sunday is pretty quiet, so I will do it again on Monday.

UK



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 77,072 Active Cases on April 18

First things first. I have added 8,200 recoveries to the UK data.

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

What does this say about the reported UK data?

It says the numbers are most likely missing something. It is highly unlikely that 50% of a normal population of cases tested on March 28 have died according to the data reported.

Hence the UK dataset needs to be looked at more carefully over time. My suspicion is that if the mortality numbers are correct, then:

• the initial reported cases are under-representative of wider community spread; and
• they are only testing really sick people.

One flaw with this logic is the underlying assumption that all of the deaths since March 28 are people who had tested positive by March 28. While it takes at least a couple of weeks from infection to death, it's a flawed assumption that you have two weeks from a positive test until death. Probably a lot of the deaths are people who got tested when already very sick and died within a few days of testing, if not almost immediately or even whose positive results weren't reported until after they died, which does improve the survival rate of people who had tested positive by March 28.

It is obvious that the UK is not testing anyone but very, very sick patients, though. I do question the logic of this; there doesn't seem to be much value to knowing whether a patient in the ICU in respiratory distress has coronavirus. At this point, it's basically guaranteed that they do. Testing should be focused much more on mild cases where the flu, the common cold, allergies, etc. are also plausible causes and oriented away from hospital emergency rooms. (This also goes for the US, where at least here in NYC the approach on testing is similar.)

I was told by an NHS doctor this evening that the UK is only testing patients who need to be hospitalized. They are also currently only counting hospital deaths, which makes a future catch up as happened in France likely at some point soon. And to top it off, the data on fatalities is already several days old by the time it is actually reported.

The UK’s political management of this has been alarmingly bad, which is all the more unforgivable seeing as not being so exposed to the Italian outbreak gave them a couple of weeks longer to prepare than most of Italy’s close neighbours did.

[FrancoAgo]

worldometers data, only countries with more of 8,000 active cases
what % of actives cases are serious/critical cases
USA 2.3%
Italy 3.3%
France 7.5%
Spain 8.4%
UK 2.1%
Germany 7.6%
Turkey 3.2%
Iran 16.9%
Netherlands 6.1%
Brazil 1.4%
Belgium 6.2%
Canada 3.4%
Portugal 1.4%
Russia 0.6%
Switzerland 3.3%
Israel 1.9%
Ireland 2.1%
Sweden 9.1%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Meanwhile, riots in a Brussels suburb

Death of youngster in police chase triggers unrest

Angry youngsters headed out onto the street in the Brussels borough of Anderlecht yesterday afternoon after a 19-year-old died during a police chase.  The youngster, who was fleeing a corona check on a moped on Friday night, crashed into a police vehicle head on.

Youngsters gathered at various spots across Anderlecht.  In all 43 hotheads were detained. Dozens of youngsters massed on the Raadsplein near Anderlecht city hall and outside the Clemenceau metro station.  The protest derailed into a small riot with stones being hurled at police.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

As we climb through 2 Million Total Cases worldwide, keep in mind that a lot of those people have now recovered. The number of Active Cases is significantly less.

Based on the German research recently quoted by Russian Bear and Deadoman, the stats are pretty encouraging for 66-75% of the population to develop antibodies without getting sick, or having mild symptoms without any long term effects.

My estimate based on this research for people who have developed anti-bodies to the virus would be between 20-40 Million people.

Some graphs coming up with latest predictions.

UK



UK 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 83,603 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 8,700


France



France 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 96,942 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 0


Germany



Germany 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 8,100


Spain



Spain 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 75,778 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 13,000


Italy



Italy 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 67,880 – March 29
Recoveries added to curve – 66,400

Clearly past the worst of it, Italy should calm down now in terms of the number of Active Cases. First in to the curve, most likely, first out.


USA



USA 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 474,723 – April 17
Recoveries added to curve – 92,000

USA curve reduced thanks to the addition of recoveries. Looks to be past the top of peak growth and now heading to peak Active cases in 4-5 days time.

Will most likely get a few bumps on the way down as evidenced by the same in the European countries listed.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Easter Monday morning update (comparison to Sunday morning):

All positive cases: 14.080 (+135, +1%)

Patients hospitalized: 981 (-54) - of which:
Patients in ICU: 239 (-4)

Deaths: 368 (+18)

Recoveries: 7.343 (+356)

Tests conducted: 148.412

https://bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A7171477A51625143334D3D

There are now more recovered cases than active cases.