International COVID-19 Megathread

[FrancoAgo]

ISS informative reports on COVID-19 in Italy, in italian

ISS: Istituto Superiore di Sanità, literally Health Higher Institute

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino%20sorveglianza%20integrata%20COVID-19_16%20marzo%202020.pdf

 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

[FrancoAgo]

bore actually ISS report tell us that only 3 on 2003 deaths have not prior conditions
also is not only the Veneto that test also symptomless, this is clear, see the table

[FrancoAgo]

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 3,405, sicks cumulative 41,035, recoveries 4,440, tests 182,777
fatality rate 8,3%

[FrancoAgo]

Italy report 5 p.m. today
deaths 4,032, sicks cumulative 47,021, recoveries 5,129, tests 206,886
fatality rate 8,6%
mortality rate (with a population of 60,317k) 67 per million
 

[FrancoAgo]

Italian smokers are less of german, 24% vs 30%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/

I've not found number of tests did in Germany, in Italy are 233K, i've some doubt that german number is of different magnitude (also taking in the count the 35+% more population of Germany)

[FrancoAgo]

https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1241494999482667010?s=19

actually they close only partially the factories, there is a long list open activities
01 COLTIVAZIONI AGRICOLE E PRODUZIONE DI PRODOTTI ANIMALI, CACCIA E SERVIZI CONNESSI
03 PESCA E ACQUACOLTURA
10 INDUSTRIE ALIMENTARI
11 INDUSTRIA DELLE BEVANDE
13.96.20 Fabbricazione di altri articoli tessili tecnici ed industriali
13.94 "FABBRICAZIONE DI SPAGO, CORDE, FUNI E RETI "
13.95 FABBRICAZIONE DI TESSUTI NON TESSUTI E DI ARTICOLI IN TALI MATERIE (ESCLUSI GLI ARTICOLI DI ABBIGLIAMENTO)
14.12.00 Confezioni di camici, divise e altri indumenti da lavoro
17 Fabbricazione di carta
18 Stampa e riprdozuine di supporti registrati
19 FABBRICAZIONE DI COKE E PRODOTTI DERIVANTI DALLA RAFFINAZIONE DEL PETROLIO
20 Fabbricazione di prodotti chimici
21 FABBRICAZIONE DI PRODOTTI FARMACEUTICI DI BASE E DI PREPARATI FARMACEUTICI
22.1 Fabbricazione di articoli in gomma
22.2 Fabbricazione di articoli in materie plastiche
23.19.10 Fabbricazione di vetrerie per laboratori, per uso igienico, per farmacia
23.20.00 Fabbricazione di prodotti refrattari
24.42.00 Produzione di alluminio e semilavorati
26.60.02 Fabbricazione di apparecchi elettromedicali (incluse parti staccate e accessori)
26.60.09 Fabbricazione di altri strumenti per irradiazione ed altre apparecchiature elettroterapeutiche
28.95.00 Fabbricazione di macchine per l'industria della carta e del cartone (incluse parti e accessori)
32.50 Fabbricazione di strumenti e forniture mediche e dentistiche
33.12.40 Riparazione e manutenzione di attrezzature di uso non domestico per la refrigerazione e la ventilazione
33.13.03 Riparazione e manutenzione di apparecchi medicali per diagnosi, di materiale medico chirurgico e veterinario, di apparecchi e strumenti per odontoiatria
33.12.53 Riparazione e manutenzione di macchine per le industrie chimiche, petrolchimiche e petrolifere
33.12.60 Riparazione e manutenzione di trattori agricoli
33.12.70 Riparazione e manutenzione di altre macchine per l'agricoltura, la silvicoltura e la zootecnia
33.13.04 Riparazione di apparati di distillazione per laboratori, di centrifughe per laboratori e di macchinari per pulizia ad ultrasuoni per laboratori
33.16.00 Riparazione e manutenzione di aeromobili e di veicoli spaziali
33.17.00 Riparazione e manutenzione di materiale rotabile ferroviario, tranviario, filoviario e per metropolitane (esclusi i loro motori)
33.20.07 Installazione di apparecchi medicali per diagnosi, di apparecchi e strumenti per odontoiatria
33.20.08 Installazione di apparecchi elettromedicali
35 FORNITURA DI ENERGIA ELETTRICA, GAS, VAPORE E ARIA CONDIZIONATA
36 RACCOLTA, TRATTAMENTO E FORNITURA DI ACQUA
37 GESTIONE DELLE RETI FOGNARIE
38 ATTIVITÀ DI RACCOLTA, TRATTAMENTO E SMALTIMENTO DEI RIFIUTI; RECUPERO DEI MATERIALI
39 ATTIVITà DI RISANAMENTO E ALTRI SERVIZI DI GESTIONE DEI RIFIUTI
43.21 Installazione di impianti elettrici
43.22.01 Installazione di impianti idraulici, di riscaldamento e di condizionamento dell'aria (inclusa manutenzione e riparazione) in edifici o in altre opere di costruzione
43.22.02 Installazione di impianti per la distribuzione del gas (inclusa manutenzione e riparazione)
43.22.03 Installazione di impianti di spegnimento antincendio (inclusi quelli integrati e la manutenzione e riparazione)
45.2 Manutenzione e riparazione di autoveicoli
45.3 Commercio di parti e eccessori di autoveicoli
45.4 per la sola attività di manutenzione e riparazione di motocicli e commercio di relative parti e accessori
46.49.10 Commercio all'ingrosso di carta, cartone e articoli di cartoleria
46.69.94 Commercio all'ingrosso di articoli antincendio e antinfortunistici
49.10.00 Trasporto ferroviario di passeggeri (interurbano)
49.20.00 Trasporto ferroviario di merci
49.31.00 Trasporto terrestre di passeggeri in aree urbane e suburbane
49.32.10 Trasporto con taxi
49.32.20 Trasporto mediante noleggio di autovetture da rimessa con conducente
49.41.00 Trasporto di merci su strada
49.50.10 Trasporto mediante condotte di gas
49.50.20 Trasporto mediante condotte di liquidi
50 TRASPORTO MARITTIMO E PER VIE D'ACQUA
51 TRASPORTO AEREO
52 MAGAZZINAGGIO E ATTIVITÀ DI SUPPORTO AI TRASPORTI
53 SERVIZI POSTALI E ATTIVITÀ DI CORRIERE
j (DA 58 A 63) SERVIZI DI INFORMAZIONE E COMUNICAZIONE
K (da 64 a 66) ATTIVITà FINANZIARIE E ASSICURATIVE
72 RICERCA SCIENTFICA E SVILUPPO
74.3 TRADUZIONE E INTERPRETARIATO
75 SERVIZI VETERINARI
80.1 Servizi di vigilanza privata
80.2 Servizi connessi ai sistemi di vigilanza
81.22.01 Attività di sterilizzazione di attrezzature medico sanitarie
81.29.91 Pulizia e lavaggio di aree pubbliche, rimozione di neve e ghiaccio
81.29.99 Altre attività di pulizia nca
82.20.00 Attività dei call center
84 AMMINISTRAZIONE PUBBLICA E DIFESA; ASSICURAZIONE SOCIALE OBBLIGATORIA
85 ISTRUZIONE
86 ASSISTENZA SANITARIA
87 SERVIZI DI ASSISTENZA SOCIALE RESIDENZIALE
88 ASSISTENZA SOCIALE NON RESIDENZIALE
94 ATTIVITÀ DI ORGANIZZAZIONI ECONOMICHE, DI DATORI DI LAVORO E PROFESSIONALI

[FrancoAgo]

news: in Italy you can only leave your municipality for work or for health or emergency reasons
 

[FrancoAgo]

From what I've been hearing, we're expected to have a peak mid-April, but I can't cite a source.

afaik the peak in mid April would be in the heavy hit area in north Italy, in late May early June would have peaked in all Italy.

we back to normal in July 2022, if vaccine will discovered, or if not, a "normal" like in the 60s with measles

[FrancoAgo]

Germany has hit 50,000 cases now. Still remarkable we have just over 300 deaths. Italy is a tragedy beyond any words.

There are rumors in Germany on underestimated covid deaths?

The local transmission in Germany start before that Italy, actually in Italy covid came from German but italian first death is of the 22nd February and the first german is of the 9th March 

[FrancoAgo]

What’s going on in Japan? As far and I can tell they aren’t doing anything to combat the virus and yet they have no surge. Are they just lucky? Or not testing? Or did they do something to control the virus early in that Im unaware of?

No new cases today. 75% recovered. The flattest of flat curves.

They are super organised, intelligent and can trace patients very well.

South Korea and Singapore are the same.

Westerners do not realise how these societies function. Clean, intelligent, efficient.

They were also exposed to the SARS epidemic, so they put things in place for the next time it struck.

So they had a 10-year head start.

actually Japan did few tests ~30k, so hard find covid affected
Singapore did >40k tests with less 1/20 of japanese population
 

[FrancoAgo]

It seems plausible that the virus came to Italy on several ways and that it spread undetected for a while. The first two cases in the German state of Baden-Württemberg had been in Milan before, at a time when the virus was officially still confined to Lodi province.

actually never officially the virus was confined to Lodi

[FrancoAgo]

- Germany has higher testing capabilities due to a unique and decentralized system of laboratories. As a result, we find more infected people compared to Italy. I'm sure the real number of infections in Italy is much higher than reported. That's also the case in Germany, but by a much smaller factor. Germany was lucky in a sense we had the first infections on the radar very early. Meanwhile, experts believe the virus has spread undiscovered in Italy since the middle of January or so. That's a huge difference.

at the 26th march, i've not more recent data for Germany, the Germany did 5,812 tests per million and Italy 5,986 so practically the same

[FrancoAgo]

I found a very interesting website that shows a phylogenetic tree of all Covid-19 samples sequenced so far:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/2020-03-27

Quite complicated to read, and the geographic assignment often comes with a lack of certainty, but it still can shed some light on many questions like:
- Did Covid-19 arrive in Italy in 2019 already? (No, very unlikely.)
- Did it come from a single source? (No, multiple.)
- Did it come to Italy via the early German outbreak? (No, probably not.)

that website give no info on yours points,
the website show the appear of Codogno cluster from nowhere, show a early cluster in Friuli and i never heard of this

[FrancoAgo]

The Friuli sample is only from 01 March, so not that early.

Now i see it from 16th February, just some hours ago from 26th February, at this point i suspect a bug

[FrancoAgo]

 Or is 16th/26th February just the date when the Friuli bubble appears on the map? In that case the date is probably only infered probabilistically from the known data and the map can change dynamically after new samples are added.

was just the date

now the bubble is show at 19th february

[FrancoAgo]

Country with an odd ratio of serious cases and total active cases
data from worldometers, only countries with almost one thousand of active cases

too low, 1% or less
Mexico 1 on 1,151
Pakistan 12 on 1,997
Philippines 1 on 2,165
UK 163 on 26,987

too high, 10% or more
China 466 on 2,004
Iran 3,871 on 29,084
France 5,565 on 42,023

[FrancoAgo]

Worldometers data
test each 1 million of population, only countries with 10 millions or more inhabitants,
China data N.A.
Australia: 11,653
Germany: 10,962
Italy: 10,870
South Korea: 8,996
Portugal: 8,470
Canada: 8,425
Spain: 7,593
Czech: 7,499
Belgium: 6,040
USA: 5,006
Russia: 4,776
Netherlands: 4,401
Azerbaijan: 3,945
Sweden: 3,654
France 3,436
United Kingdom: 2,880
Chile: 2,543

i've limited that with 2,500 or more

[FrancoAgo]

I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

AFAIK Italy report only recoveries from hospitals, Lombardy report both as yesterday 13,426 recoveries from hospitals (as reported also in the national report) and 14,798 recoveries w/o going in hospital

[FrancoAgo]

Thanks. Can you get me the total recoveries from Italy nationally please?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This page is only listing 21,815 as recovered whilst my modelling suggests we should be seeing around 50,000-65,000 recoveries nationally in Italy as of today.

Unlucky i can't, i known the Lombardy number because their press conference was transmitted daily on national TV channels just before of national press conference, i know they transmit also Veneto press conference but the morning i don't see it commonly, i never see other regional press conference

[FrancoAgo]

But what you are saying is that Lombardy on it's own has over 27,000 recoveries.

So they told in their yesterday press conference, actually are over 28,000 recoveries

[FrancoAgo]

Just for get your attention, today i see with more attention the data from Lombardy and that from the National, so the "recovered" number w/o hospitalization of Lombardy is propaganda, they call so that positive in home isolation 

[FrancoAgo]

Just for get your attention, today i see with more attention the data from Lombardy and that from the National, so the "recovered" number w/o hospitalization of Lombardy is propaganda, they call so that positive in home isolation 

I noticed you don't see this

[FrancoAgo]

Data is missing from Italy regardless of the reports. Look at the New Cases vs New Recoveries:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Now look at New Cases vs New Recovies in China:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

The area under the curve should be essentially the same minus mortality.

Missing around 55,000-65,000 recoveries in Italy which should have had an outcome by now.

I'm agree there is a miss data, probably because the people in self isolation don't came tested for check they recovery, but we have no numbers

[FrancoAgo]

 A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces ...
Given that the actual final mortality rate appears closer to 0.8% worldwide

ever from worldometers
worldwide deaths the 8th April 88,457
worldwide cases the 1st April 936,637
supposed fatality rate 9.4%

i add, afaik 7 days lag it's too few
with a 2 weeks delay
worldwide cases the 25th March 471,471
supposed fatality rate 18.8%

italian studies report 9 days median from the symptoms to deaths
worldwide cases the 30th March 785,828
supposed fatality rate 11.3%

[FrancoAgo]

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

afaik the recovery time is estimated from 2 weeks to 6 weeks, so take the minimum heavy influence the data and the analysis