International COVID-19 Megathread

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Is it true that the weather getting warmer would help?

That's the case with most respiratory viruses (inc. those from this 'family') for various reasons, but as this is a new virus you can't be sure quite how much so.

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Confirmed cases in the UK up to 163.

Holy sh**t, why the sudden daily spikes in the UK? It was relatively calm there just a while ago.

Viruses spread very quickly and, of course, cases are being looked for.

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There's no reason to believe that numbers there have not fallen dramatically. At a regional or local level especially the number of cases in a virus outbreak typically fall as quickly as they rise once they hit their peak. Of course, this is also why one must be careful about declaring this or that response to any outbreak as 'successful' or not.

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Probably a little point worth being aware of. If you fall sick avoid ibuprofen, aspirin and other anti-inflammatories.

The correct drug to take if you have a fever (amongst other things it brings down temperatures etc; it's really very useful) is paracetamol. Correct dose for an adult would be two tablets (no more!) every four hours (minimum gap).

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When I started reading and hearing comments on the Boris Johnson's approach to the coronavirus crisis, I could not believe it. What's the problem with this man?

I feel overloaded and overwhelmed by the news in my country, but I fear for the Brits

The government's actual policies are basically a modification of a standard plan for a deviant flu strain pandemic: a reasonable enough idea under the circumstances although (inevitably) there will be bits that won't work out so well. But the government's communication of this last week was hideously bad (for a mixture of political reasons - a desire to stress differences with other countries because of Brexit jfc - and intellectual vanity) and has led to... well... confusion.

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The head of the German Robert Koch Institute has just said that the implemented restrictions for the public life could "in an extreme scenario" last two years.

Obviously, this would in practice probably not be sustainable IMO or otherwise it could cause a literal revolution (or unless elections aren't suspended a political party which promises a lifting of the restrictions could outright win). The longer this draws out the more support the "ust let the old farts just die" movement would probably gain traction. More than two months of this and there's gonna be blood in the streets.

It isn't remotely sustainable for more than a very limited period of time, yes. I suspect governments will move towards a stop-go approach. If the sounds of progress on treatments (not even thinking of a vaccine here) bear rapid fruit, then the 'stop' part would become progressively less onerous, I guess. But even that would be difficult.

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The English term for the sort of market that birthed this virus is 'a shambles'. Isn't language fun.

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'Clique' has negative connotations, 'coterie' would be neutral.

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Can we keep CCP propaganda out of this thread, maybe?

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Stamp's Law of Statistics.

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Now in the UK they're talking about a 6 month lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

Lmao, that's practically impossible

And as I posted upthread, its not what was actually said.

In fact it was explicitly ruled out.

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they are only testing really sick people.

This is indeed what is happening.

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World's leading tennis player is an anti-vaxxer: "Personally I am opposed to vaccination and I wouldn't want to be forced by someone to take a vaccine in order to be able to travel".

No surprise there; he has always been a massive, massive crank.

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That's true of most countries, though?

A real and consistent drop in hospital deaths still means something IMO.

It's the case with the statistics from basically all countries, yes.

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Well, this is encouraging news.

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Exactly so. Arguments to the contrary get bizarre and almost utopian very quickly: you have expect the adherents to insist that 'rEal lOckDoWn haS nEveR bEen tRIeD'.

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Turkmenistan still fighting the good fight there, they actually banned the virus don'tcha know?

Yes, a heroic effort. Unfortunately there is presently this mysterious and very dangerous dust blowing through the country, and citizens have been instructed to protect themselves by wearing face masks, and also, in order that the dust may circulate better, to stand about two metres apart.

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Glasgow is of course mostly white, which goes against certain "narratives".

More notable is that it isn't an area with much in the way of process manufacturing nowadays, which has been the biggest factor in most of the other hotspots (including Caerphilly CB).

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One important difference between the Spring outbreaks and whatever we're heading into now is that, of course, corticosteroids will be routinely used to treat patients whose covid has progressed into pneumonia: many lives will be thus saved.

Anyway, I mention this not just because threads like this can become very unhealthy very quickly - everyone talking themselves and everyone else into a black depressive spiral - but to make a little analogy. Steroids are very effective as a treatment for many illness on their first use: remarkably effective, practically miracle drugs, actually. But they get a little less so on the second dose. And the third. In fact the more you use them, the less effective they are. After a certain point, the impact of the side-effects becomes more pronounced than any remaining benefit from the drug.

My suspicion is that this is likely to be prove to be true of 'lockdowns' and similar measures. Actually what evidence we have from recent 'local' (which are often actually regional) lockdowns strongly suggests this. Part of the issue is simply that it is a huge thing to ask of people. They have already made massive sacrifices - nearly everyone here, at least, did during the Great Lockdown; including people who are normally feckless wastrels - and there is a limit to what people can be reasonably expected to take. Especially when governments have so patently and repeatedly erred. Everyone has a breaking point: it is forgotten now, because it suits no one to remember this, but a majority of striking miners in '84/85 went back to work before the formal surrender. Their families were starving.

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"Up to 70%" sounds like there's a fairly large 95% confidence interval and I'd like to see what the lower end of that is.

Mind you, I agree that vaccination is our ultimate way out of this.

I would be wary of believing absolutely anything the liars in this government trot out right now, particularly when there are obvious political incentives to lie.

But yes. Vaccination not delusions of State Power, but that's been true all along.

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Bit of an abuse of the word 'numerous' there.

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But we're not going to defeat Covid any time soon if not enough people have faith and confidence in vaccines.

Now why might there even be an issue with that in the first place?

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Quite frankly, the way the EU's leaders handled AstraZeneca is childish. First, they complained about slow delivery. Then, they made comments about its safety and efficacy. Then, they banned its export, before banning its administration. Finally, they relent.

And it continues! Yes, we're back to the export ban discourse. Pretty clearly the senior leadership of the organisation should resign in shame and disgrace.

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Well, as a total number it's actually not that many. There were 31 cases reported in Germany so far. Nine of them died. Almost exclusively women under the age of 60. However, I think it's the right decision to pause AstraZeneca for them as a precautionary step even though there is no final confirmation the thrombosis were actually caused by the vaccine (but it's likely).

You might not have noticed, but there is a pandemic of a highly infectious disease that has a relatively high mortality rate presently raging. The precautionary principle in this case is to keep on vaccinating.* And what do you base the latter on? Remarks from your public health officials who have repeatedly lied about this subject? How gullible are you?

_{*Incidentally even were this all true the risk would be substantially lower than from taking, for instance, the contraceptive pill.}

If the government lets this go and more cases occur, they would be in much bigger trouble. It's just the public communication that was every unfortunate here for a while, to put it mildly.

Well far more people have already died of covid as a result of this sort of idiocy and the delays in the vaccination programme so caused than ever could have from this cock-and-bull cowardly fantasy.

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Many of the remaining restrictions are onerous and of decidedly dubious medical or public health benefit - I don't think there is any case for retaining those. What there an argument is for the rest: is it absolutely necessary to end all restrictions in one go? Might it make more sense to keep a few that probably do have a benefit until vaccinations in young adults have hit a higher level? Of course instead we get presented with this idea that the 'debate' is between 'everything in one go' and what amounts to scaremongering lunacy.