International COVID-19 Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

Vietnam Health Department

Jealous Coronavirus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9YirNgAzXI

[Meclazine for Israel]

Italy and the Corona-virus appear to be a perfect storm.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-travel-advice/12041504

"Why is the coronavirus so bad in Italy?"

"COVID-19 has a more severe effect on the elderly and people with existing medical conditions than young, previously healthy patients.

And Italy has a large older population.

A 2019 report from the UN says 23 per cent of Italy's population is 65 or older."

"Italy is a country of old people," Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at a Milan hospital, told The Guardian."

"The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here."

[Meclazine for Israel]

Great Moments in the History of Perth Crime

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/woman-charged-stealing-facemasks-and-antiseptic-from-hospital/12053840

At my girlfriends shopping centre, all of the toilet paper was stolen from the public toilets, disabled as well. And to get the toilet paper out, they had to roll it out slowly and then restore it to steal it.

I have never heard of someone stealing toilet paper from a public toilet in a shopping centre. None in the actual shop, and the shop said that the toilet paper from their storage was also stolen. So the entire building has no toilet paper.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/man-selling-toilet-paper-online-for-thousands-amid-coronavirus-panic/ar-BB10Pllo

Chinese guy trying to sell a 10 pack online for $2,000. He met Channel 9 news in Perth and then they accosted him live on the 6pm news.

Not specifically a criminal act, but the punishment matched the crime.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Seen at a Vienna supermarket:

Imagine if that person came up to you, and in a slow, deep and soft voice said

"Excuse me but i wanted that last block of chocolate."

I would hand it over.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Japan is probably understating cases due to a lack of testing, but not by the huge margins that this seems to imply.

Unlike political discussion, you cannot just make up wild stories about medically reported infections and deaths from Corona-virus in Japan.

Japan has extremely robust medical treatment and reporting. Their numbers are legit.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia, Argentina and New Zealand have locked down completely.

Given the escalation in Europe, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is making an address now regarding new rules for social interaction:

1. All foreign visitors are required to go into isolation for 14 days. 100%, no exceptions.

2. All cruise-ships are now banned from entering Australia for the next 30 days with rolling decisions ongoing.

3. Non-essential gatherings of more than 500 people in Australia are now banned.

4. Schools should be left open. Children operate better in school in a pandemic because:

(a) They actually need to generate herd immunity;
(b) They will spread the virus more if not at school;
(c) The disruption to parents if children stayed home would be severe for working parents.

Cruise-lines, concerts essentially shut down.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/health/australia-is-running-out-of-supplies-to-test-for-the-coronavirus/news-story/148d5b7d304291b2ea8d67eb80617b03

Scott Morrison did indicate the majority of new cases in Australia in the last week are being diagnosed predominantly in people travelling to Australia from overseas.

More to come....once the Australian PM updates his website.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from the UK:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/queen-leaves-buckingham-palace-over-coronavirus-fears-105902469.html

The Queen has been moved to Windsor Castle for her safety.

With the Coronavirus increase in the UK, Buckingham Palace was deemed as too populous with visitors and staff.

Hidden in Windsor Castle, Queen Elizabeth II has her private confidents updating her about the situation.

When informed that the public were plundering Supermarkets due to a shortage of Meat, Pasta and Bread, she replied:

"Let Them Eat Cake"

Virus or not, copyright rules are still observed - K.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Tasmania introduces a state based isolation system.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/tas/coronavirus-crisis-tasmania-brings-in-australias-strictest-border-policy-ng-b881493571z

Coincidentally, Tasmania avoided problems in 1918 by introducing similar measures.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Western Australia is closing it's border with South Australia.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/wa-sa-set-to-close-borders-amid-coronavirus-fight/12079044

They have been bringing drugs and rapists. South Australia is the serial killer capital of Australia.

They are not bringing their best.

We are going to build a wall and South Australia are going to pay for it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Young Australians have been criticised for not enacting social distancing recommendations.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/coronavirus-nsw-victoria-act-shutdown-non-essential-services/12079124

As a result, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has now cracked down by closing all:

• Pubs;
• Clubs;
• Restaurants;
• Gyms;
• Churches;
• Sporting Venues.

to contain the virus. All non-essential services will be closed over the next 48 hours.

Western Australian border will be shut tonight, and people who don't obey the social order may be arrested and charged. The WA Premier suggested putting quarantined patients on Rottnest Island.

5-6 International Cruise Ships will enter Fremantle port over the next week.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Australian Government prides itself on a centralised policy of "Stop The Boats", but they missed the one that mattered:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51999845

150 Corona-virus victims left the Cruise Ship, some to hospital, and the remainder walked straight into Sydney and were free to go.

No Border Force, no NSW Heatlh Checks, no Quarantine.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Whilst the NSW Government were hassling people at Bondi Beach having a swim on a hot day, they were not checking the passengers getting off a Cruise Ship in the city.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/ruby-princess-coronavirus-someone-needs-to-take-responsibility/12086834

140 Corona Virus positive cases were set free into society.

Perth now has three Cruise Ship off our coast not allowed to dock.

Some of the ships have confirmed cases on board.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden, along with South Korea, show that total lockdown is not absolutely necessary. There is a Third Way But this is made possible by some factors:

Another factor is that Sweden has a unique way of dealing with foreigners and their adverse biological agents:

Midsommar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vnghdsjmd0

The 4 stages of life based on Swedish culture include:

• 0-18 yrs: Childhood;
• 18-36 yrs: Pilgrimage;
• 36-54: Work;
• 54-72: Village Elder.

When I get to 54, I am moving to the the stage of "Village Idiot".

Given mandatory eradication of the elderly from the population reservoir after 72, this will certainly help your approach.

As for the other approaches that the Swedish employ:



I am sure people are very aware of the consequences of non-conformance in Sweden.

 

[Meclazine for Israel]

Impressive work, Antonio. Those log scales show definite cause for hope.

Thanks. I'd say so as well. We've moved from exponential growth to linear growth, which was the necessary first step - now we have to wait and see if the linear trend starts flattening.

Yes indeed. The growth is slowing in Italy, and will just follow a bell-like curve as we saw in South Korea, and China before that. New York will eventually show the same pattern.



What is encouraging is that once you pass the steepest part of the curve on the left side, things start to slow up fairly rapidly as you make the final ascent towards the top of the curve.



Out of the 4 stages of a positively skewed bell distribution graph for the Corona-virus:

(1) Accelerating Growth;
(2) Decelerating Growth;
(3) Accelerating Decay;
(4) Decelerating Decay;

The second phase will be the fastest.

And that is exactly what appears to be happening in Italy with a decrease in growth as Antonio correctly discovered. This has been the case 4 days in succession.



Think of the growth curve as the first derivative of the Active Case graph.

Hence, Peak growth in Italy in Active Cases was 21 March 2020.

If this bell curve has a distribution period of say, 2-3 months, then we should be heading towards the top of the curve around the first to second week of April when the growth in Active Cases (New Cases minus Recoveries) will equal zero.

Then the downward slope to freedom for the Italian people.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Human Stupidity Virus (HSV) in Australia

Sydney and Melbourne have seen a lot of stupid cases which has accelerated their curve; totally unnecessarily.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/a-further-41-coronavirus-cases-have-been-linked-to-the-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-in-nsw

Sydney let a full Cruise Ship of people off after docking with 162 active COVID-19 cases who walked straight into the city and joined public transport, UBER, airlines etc. One was so sick, she was taken to hospital and died within 24 hrs. NSW Government and Health Department did nothing to prevent these people from coming onshore. No tests, no questions, nothing.

Melbourne is thinking about total lockdown after a lot of people are not obeying repatriation 14 day isolation procedures. Total breakdown of people paying attention to the basics once they are infected or at risk:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-covid19-cases-victoria-community-transmission-rises/12095892

Staff in the hospitals getting infected and holiday makers coming back to Australia not self-quarantining:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/melbourne-woman-infected-with-coronavirus-attends-birthday-party-after-aspen/7e89265f-1dcb-4f1e-9a52-55c96ee24cbc


Melbourne woman infected with COVID-19 went to 21st birthday party. (iStock)

Some well to do young woman who contracted Corona-virus in Aspen, Colorado on a skiing holiday has come back to Australia, and rather than self-isolate, the 19yo woman has gone to a 21st birthday party and infected a further 6-7 other people.

All asymptomatic, they have then passed it on.

The case graph for Melbourne has a strong relationship with areas of wealth. Stonnington is where all the money is in Melbourne:

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6zBkG/1/?abcnewsembedheight=680

It's uncanny how many wealthy people are catching this virus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The epidemic's peak is expected within the next 8 days.

Based on what information?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Jakarta Post is reporting that Chinese workers are going back to work in manufacturing only to discover mass layoffs due to depleted demand.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/amp/news/2020/03/26/chinas-factories-reopen-only-to-fire-workers-as-virus-shreds-global-trade.html

[Meclazine for Israel]

Holy ship!

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-more-than-70-cruise-passengers-feared-to-have-covid-19-on-artania-in-fremantle-ng-b881502632z

Off my coast at the moment. The Government did not want the ship to dock, and the Premier said no.

But once they fell sick, we had no choice to start treating them.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Indian Police

Corona Lathicharge

https://youtu.be/NdhVTZkXb6c

Imagine that in your neighbourhood. It has an almost medieval quality to it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

No European country has reached the peak of 'Active Cases' and I would not expect any within the next 7 days either.



Whilst no European country has reached the top of the curve (or in my interpretation, a real drop in growth commensurate with a drop in growth near the top of the curve), there are a couple of countries including Italy (21 March) and Spain (26 March) which have come down slightly from a maximum rate of growth.

In other news, 33 Australian doctors have tried to skip Quarantine protocols.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/they-haven-t-listened-medical-professionals-skipped-quarantine-and-flew-interstate-20200328-p54esp.html

6 were caught in the act. 27 others flew interstate against Government guidelines.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What’s going on in Japan? As far and I can tell they aren’t doing anything to combat the virus and yet they have no surge. Are they just lucky? Or not testing? Or did they do something to control the virus early in that Im unaware of?

No new cases today. 75% recovered. The flattest of flat curves.

They are super organised, intelligent and can trace patients very well.

South Korea and Singapore are the same.

Westerners do not realise how these societies function. Clean, intelligent, efficient.

They were also exposed to the SARS epidemic, so they put things in place for the next time it struck.

So they had a 10-year head start.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Some good news for Europe and a stall in growth in the USA.

Latest growth numbers look very encouraging for an early end to this pandemic.

Let's just re-cap what a change in growth of Active Cases looks like compared to the time where we will experience a peak of 'Active Cases'.



In South Korea, after 2 weeks, the peak positive growth in 'Active Cases' was reached.

8-9 days later, the peak of 'Active Cases' was reached. Note that not all countries will have 9 days between those two milestones.

France, Japan and the UK have flatter curves, so that will be greater. The US has a very steep curve, so in NY at least, that should be less. But what you are looking at above is what the USA, Germany, Spain, UK, France, Italy and other European countries such as Belgium, The Netherlands and Switzerland will look like in 2 weeks time.

The thing most people are not aware of is that we are moving within a sci-fi mathematical formula that is completely predictable in nature. If you listen to people who don't know what is going on, they will freak out, and then spread that anxiety online. But if you look at the data in the correct context of what it actually is from a mathematical sense, you will have a better feeling about how this will play out.

Every day in South Korea, the fall in 'Active Cases' has been very predictable based on the behaviour of the curve on the previous day.

In terms of national growth curves still on the upslope of the bell curve:



Nearly all countries presented experienced a drop in growth of 'Active Cases' today.

Further analysis of this slow moving biological phenomenon over the next two days should make the situation even clearer.

If peak 'Active Cases' are 7-10 days after the peak in growth of 'Active Cases', then we should start seeing some countries reach their peak in the next week or fortnight.

Based on mortality statistics, the peak death rate will be roughly 7-10 days following that.

Will update growth of cases in other areas of the world tomorrow.

[Meclazine for Israel]

First up today.

A continuation of trends previously monitored in the growth in "Active Cases" with Germany really flattening the curve over the last two days. Italy would appear to be past the the worst of it in terms of growth. Germany and Italy are appear to be slowing in line with expectation. Spain will be interesting to watch over the next week.



France and the USA have both experienced an uptick in growth. Despite the scale on the graph and the 3 day moving average reducing the visual effect, France had a 24% increase yesterday in 'Active Cases' which is significant. If France and USA continue to grow, the averaging will show a sharp increase in this line over the next 3-4 days.

Looking at 'Active Case' growth in countries where this pandemic is newly established:

1   55.6%   Martinique
2   42.3%   Argentina
3   42.2%   Cameroon
4   38.2%   Philippines
5   32.6%   Madagascar
6   29.5%   Russia
7   28.6%   French Guiana
8   26.7%   Algeria
9   26.1%   Turkey
10   25.3%   Brazil

These countries have a minimum of 50 'Active Cases' to make this list.

[Meclazine for Israel]

German Cruise ship refusing to leave Fremantle.

This is a crazy standoff with the Western Australian government.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-cruise-ship-artania-refusing-to-leave-fremantle-port/12110206

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Growth in Corona-virus cases in all European countries plus USA continues.

Plotted on the same vertical scale, I will present the latest "Active Case" data per country which will include the growth rates for each country. At the end, the growth lines are separated off, and plotted together.



United Kingdom - Growth in Active Cases




France - Growth in Active Cases




Germany - Growth in Active Cases




Spain - Growth in Active Cases




Italy - Growth in Active Cases




USA - Growth in Active Cases




Growth in Active Cases

Clearly, some countries are starting to fade in terms of growth such as Italy and Germany. In terms of time, Spain should be next on the list to drop in growth based on previous countries.

The countries with growth lines pointing downwards, namely Italy and Germany, should be within 7-9 days of peak 'Active Cases'.

Germany has a downward kink in growth which may suggest a change in medical or social response.

The USA had a brief respite in growth 3 days ago, but has continued to accelerate sharply in growth with up to 23,000 new 'Active Cases' reported in the last 24 hours. The majority of that growth reported so far today was from New Jersey and Michigan.

In Australia, the CSIRO has begun testing on two vaccines for Corona-virus.

https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/CSIRO-begins-testing-Covid-19-vaccines