International COVID-19 Megathread

[Tender Branson]

CS Monitor article (Austria 🇦🇹 & Denmark 🇩🇰):

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0417/How-European-countries-are-trying-to-safely-end-lockdowns

[President Johnson]

Projections coming out of Africa are not looking very encouraging:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-updates-china-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440#Africa

".without mitigation etc etc....the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion."

Africa is extremely under-prepared for this.

The main issue is lack of reporting. You are just not going to see any meaningful numbers like that generated by first world medical infrastructure.

Yeah, Africa is disaster in the making. The only silver lining for the continent might be that their population is extremely young on average, which sort of compensate the lack of medical ressources. However, even then the total number of deaths will be pretty high.

[Tender Branson]

Good news for Germans:

They will probably be able to vacation in Austria during the summer.

We will very likely open the borders for Germany only (+maybe Eastern Europeans) and keep the travel ban in place for all other Europeans.

https://orf.at/stories/3162401

[parochial boy]

Poor Germans

Projections coming out of Africa are not looking very encouraging:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-updates-china-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440#Africa

".without mitigation etc etc....the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion."

Africa is extremely under-prepared for this.

The main issue is lack of reporting. You are just not going to see any meaningful numbers like that generated by first world medical infrastructure.

Yeah, Africa is disaster in the making. The only silver lining for the continent might be that their population is extremely young on average, which sort of compensate the lack of medical ressources. However, even then the total number of deaths will be pretty high.

Trouble is, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. When you have a population that is living literally day to day, no regular income, shared access to things like sanitary facilities or running water then it is completely unfeasible to even think about the sort of lockdowns that we have in Europe. The conditions you'd be creating would be utterly horrific (cf India for an example of how things can go wrong).

[PSOL]

The situation in South Asia isn’t exactly turning out very well

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good news for Germans:

They will probably be able to vacation in Austria during the summer.

We will very likely open the borders for Germany only (+maybe Eastern Europeans) and keep the travel ban in place for all other Europeans.

https://orf.at/stories/3162401

I'm not that much of a mountain guy, so the only place worth going to for me is probably Vienna and I already have been there in 2017. I'm strongly considering a vacation in Germany this year... that is as soon as you're allowed to go someplace again (well, with the exception of the states of Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern you're still technically allowed to go someplace, it's just that you're not allowed to book a hotel/pension/etc. there).

[FrancoAgo]

Countries with more of 5 thousands cases, that have already clearly peaked* active cases,
* go down 5% or more, 3 days almost of downing
worldometers data

Denmark peak 10th April, 1% of peak 8th March, 17th April 88% of peak
Australia peak 4th April, 1% 7th March, 17th April 54%
Malaysia peak 5th April, 1% 4th March, 17th April 85%
Austria peak 3rd April, 1% 8th March, 17th April 48%
South Korea peak 11th March, 1% 20th February, 17th April 35%
Switzerland peak 31st March, 1% 5th March, 17th April 65%
Germany peak 6th April, 1% 7th March, 17th April 74%
China peak 17th February, 1% 22nd January, 17th April 0.1%
Iran peak 5th April, 1% 28th February, 17th April 63%

[ON Progressive]

South Korea reported less than 10 new cases for the first time in two months, also with 105 new recoveries.

Active cases below 2400 now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

South Korea reported less than 10 new cases for the first time in two months, also with 105 new recoveries.

Active cases below 2400 now.

Yes, and Japan and Singapore after having such a flat curve for so long have started increasing at 10-20% per day respectively. They are coming off a low base. The interesting thing to see is how much of a stop they can put to this having the planning and time to deal with it.

And in breaking news from Western Australia which has some of the strictest lock-down protocols in the world, we have had 1 new positively tested case today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/wa-records-just-one-new-coronavirus-case-with-state-total-at-545/12162662

One. This is getting ridiculous.

We have locked down the state from international and interstate travel and shut down shops and services for one case.

[Tender Branson]

Only 78 new positive cases here since yesterday (+0.5%)

Out of 14.749 total positive cases, there are now:

10.501 recovered (+287)
  3.796 active cases (-218)
     452 dead (+9)

+9 deaths yesterday (the lowest number since March 24).

Hospitalisations down by 38 and in ICU by 4.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200419_OTS0014/aktuelle-zahlen-zum-corona-virus

[FrancoAgo]

positive rate countries/territories with higher number test did, 20 per thousand minimum
worldometers data

Faeroe 3.1%
Iceland 4.3%

Falkland 3.4%
UAE 0.9%
Gibraltar 7.1%
Luxembourg 10.6%
Malta 1.8%

Bahrain 2.1%
San Marino 28.3%
Estonia 3.8%
Man 12.3%
Cyprus 2.4%
Norway 5.1%
Brunei 1.2%
Switzerland 12.7%
Liechtenstein 8.8%
Lithuania 2%
Portugal 8.3%
Andorra 42%
Israel 7.1%
Italy 13.5%
Qatar 8.3%
Germany 8.3%

1st group over 100 per thousand inhabitant test, 2nd over 50, 3rd over 20

[kaoras]

Chilean government wants to reopen the shopping centers and is going to bring back public employees to work face-to-face, without consulting the expert council that rejects those measures and while we are still at the peak of infections.

Sometimes I want to believe that they are evil, it's easier to swallow than to accept that they are really that stupid.

[parochial boy]

Going back to an earlier theme, stark differences in the levels of mortality across Switzerland's linguistic regions - put into perspective with neighbouring countries



source - Blick.ch

[CumbrianLefty]

Chilean government wants to reopen the shopping centers and is going to bring back public employees to work face-to-face, without consulting the expert council that rejects those measures and while we are still at the peak of infections.

Sometimes I want to believe that they are evil, it's easier to swallow than to accept that they are really that stupid.

Right wing governments across the world are making noises like this, it fits their underlying ideology.

[Tender Branson]

Going back to an earlier theme, stark differences in the levels of mortality across Switzerland's linguistic regions - put into perspective with neighbouring countries



source - Blick.ch

It’s one thing that such huge differences even exist in different European countries, but it’s quite crazy that these big differences exist within a single country, Switzerland, as well ...

[FrancoAgo]

It’s one thing that such huge differences even exist in different European countries, but it’s quite crazy that these big differences exist within a single country, Switzerland, as well ...

I think this is common in many countries
a example from Italy

the 3 regions more hit
Lombardy 120 deaths for 100K
Aosta Valley 98 deaths for 100K
Emilia Romagna 66 deaths for 100K
the 3 regions less hit
Calabria 4 deaths for 100K
Sicily 4 deaths for 100K
Basilicata 4 deaths for 100K

[President Johnson]

Good news for Germans:

They will probably be able to vacation in Austria during the summer.

We will very likely open the borders for Germany only (+maybe Eastern Europeans) and keep the travel ban in place for all other Europeans.

https://orf.at/stories/3162401

I'm not that much of a mountain guy, so the only place worth going to for me is probably Vienna and I already have been there in 2017. I'm strongly considering a vacation in Germany this year... that is as soon as you're allowed to go someplace again (well, with the exception of the states of Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern you're still technically allowed to go someplace, it's just that you're not allowed to book a hotel/pension/etc. there).

I still can't believe there won't be single German (or Austrian, Dutch, Belgian or whatever) tourist in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece this entire summer. Southern European countries are already economically struggling and the tourism industry is absolutely vital for them. There is much that depends on it far beyond tourism companies and airlines, it's thousands of small family owned stores, hotels, campsites, restaurants, nightclubs, car rental, local transportation, real estate and so on. Southern European countries just can't sit this year out with zero foreigners coming in.

We've not booked vacation yet, but I hope we can still go to Greece in the summer or early fall for a few days on the beach. Austria is always worth a week of vacation or a weekend trip, but I generally prefer the Mediterranean Sea over mountains or the German coast.

[parochial boy]

It’s one thing that such huge differences even exist in different European countries, but it’s quite crazy that these big differences exist within a single country, Switzerland, as well ...

I think this is common in many countries
a example from Italy

the 3 regions more hit
Lombardy 120 deaths for 100K
Aosta Valley 98 deaths for 100K
Emilia Romagna 66 deaths for 100K
the 3 regions less hit
Calabria 4 deaths for 100K
Sicily 4 deaths for 100K
Basilicata 4 deaths for 100K

Switzerland's only about the size of Lomabrdy though. The thing that is really eye-catching as how all the regions basically mirror what is going on in the countries that speak the same language; even despite the same healthcare system nationwide and exactly the same measures being implemented at exactly the same time across the country. Ticino's proximity to Lombardy is obviously a factor, but that doesn't really explain why Romandie is so hard hit - especially since the worst affected area of France actually borders a German speaking part of Switzerland.

[CumbrianLefty]

Big drop in UK deaths today, likely to be the "weekend effect" again but still encouraging.

[Tirnam]

Same in France, with the same "weekend effect", but today we had the lowest number of deaths in hospital since March 24.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz interview on CNN:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some more Sweden graphs:

Black = new ICU admittances per day
Dark Blue = total current ICU patients
Light Blue = cumulative ICU patients, including those deceased or released from ICU
Orange = ICU capacity


Again, all the SWEDEN WILL BE A DISASTER!!!! takes are pure hysteria

7 day rolling average of daily ICU admittances:

[FrancoAgo]

Some more Sweden graphs:

Black = new ICU admittances per day
Dark Blue = total current ICU patients
Light Blue = cumulative ICU patients, including those deceased or released from ICU
Orange = ICU capacity


Again, all the SWEDEN WILL BE A DISASTER!!!! takes are pure hysteria

7 day rolling average of daily ICU admittances:

this are all ICU patients? including no Covid?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

this are all ICU patients? including no Covid?

No, it's all COVID-related. "p.g.a. COVID-19" = "per grund av COVID-19" = "due to COVID-19"

[FrancoAgo]

this are all ICU patients? including no Covid?

No, it's all COVID-related. "p.g.a. COVID-19" = "per grund av COVID-19" = "due to COVID-19"

so the graph miss the non covid patients in ICU