Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Welcome Ireland in joining Israel, Spain and Belgium in being a country where it's impossible to form governments and where new elections have to be held time after time.

Time After Time can be a good thing.

[BP🌹]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

[Tintrlvr]

So it sounds like right now Ireland is about to get their own little taste of Israeli politics. FG is flipping off everyone and saying "you sort it out," SF discovered that the math forces two of the big three to work together as their small party discussions collapsed, and FF insiders have serious problems with SF. So you get a Mexican Standoff that will produce new elections, a la Israel or Spain. The only difference of course is that all parties can adjust the number of candidates they run to tilt the math potentially in their favor.

... though it isn't entirely clear that SF running more candidates would make that much difference to whether coalitions are viable, as extra SF seats would have mostly come from the smaller parties and independents who are relatively happy to work with them, not from FF and FG.

I would presume a second election would revolve heavily around the question of who would and wouldn't work with who. Which is a bit of a problem, given that you'd only get a second referendum if FF and FG can't work out a coalition.

Also, if SF did run extra candidates, that might somewhat mitigate the smaller parties' seat losses, as in the constituencies where they wouldn't be able to elect an extra candidate it's still likely they'd transfer heavily to non-FF and non-FG candidates. Which probably means fewer Trot TDs but more Greens.

I think a second election would inevitably lead to a strong result for SF, as they will run the proper number of candidates this time, and they're the only party that seems to be trying to make a government work so will be rewarded for looking like adults (without having to actually govern and therefore do anything that might make them unpopular), and a weak result for FF, as SF is the only party they really get a lot of transfers from, and therefore refusing to work with SF will hurt them considerably, and SF running more candidates will also eat into what transfers and seats FF do get. FG probably doesn't change much, maybe even gets a small boost if voters decide they've been punished enough and come back. I think the small left-wing parties would be hurt by a stronger SF since there would then be fewer excess SF votes to transfer to them, but I agree that there would still be transfers to the left--though risky for the small left parties if the second (or third) SF candidate ends up ahead of their candidates but not high enough to actually get elected. Another election would also probably be good for the Greens, as you note.

Not sure the second election would break the deadlock, but it might force FF into accepting another junior partner status, this time with SF, if SF has a strengthened hand post-election and FF a weakened one.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Presumably it also matters to some extent which FF TDs get elected, because some are a lot more hostile to SF than others. That probably has the potential to cause quite a bit of chaos, especially where there are two candidates standing but potentially only the votes for one to get elected.

[CumbrianLefty]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

What is this a reference to?

[Oryxslayer]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

What is this a reference to?

Probably related to the fact that since the election, one of the big topics of analysis and discussion is if Sinn Fein is ready for primetime. Their delegation has made a made a number of outlandish remarks over the past week, which is rather understandable since their 'throwaway' candidates got elected. Then there is the problem that beyond a few at the top, Sinn Fein seems to want to use their position for nationalist policy, not the housing and healthcare issues that brought them here.

[TJ in Oregon]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

What is this a reference to?

Probably related to the fact that since the election, one of the big topics of analysis and discussion is if Sinn Fein is ready for primetime. Their delegation has made a made a number of outlandish remarks over the past week, which is rather understandable since their 'throwaway' candidates got elected. Then there is the problem that beyond a few at the top, Sinn Fein seems to want to use their position for nationalist policy, not the housing and healthcare issues that brought them here.

But the issue based polling on this election shows that nationalism was the main area in which their voters stood out from the general Irish public, not housing and healthcare. There are polls that have been posted both here and AAD showing SF voters views on standard fare social and economic policy are all over the place, and in many cases indistinguishable from FF and FG voters' views. The one topic that SF supports really stand out is exactly issues of Irish nationalism.

[Oryxslayer]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

What is this a reference to?

Probably related to the fact that since the election, one of the big topics of analysis and discussion is if Sinn Fein is ready for primetime. Their delegation has made a made a number of outlandish remarks over the past week, which is rather understandable since their 'throwaway' candidates got elected. Then there is the problem that beyond a few at the top, Sinn Fein seems to want to use their position for nationalist policy, not the housing and healthcare issues that brought them here.

But the issue based polling on this election shows that nationalism was the main area in which their voters stood out from the general Irish public, not housing and healthcare. There are polls that have been posted both here and AAD showing SF voters views on standard fare social and economic policy are all over the place, and in many cases indistinguishable from FF and FG voters' views. The one topic that SF supports really stand out is exactly issues of Irish nationalism.

That is their issue. As has been discussed many times here, irish parties don't differ that much. But the reason why they surged (especially in urban areas) was because SF promised silver bullets on those issues, campaigning off of FG and FFs failings to deal with or prevent the aftereffects of the crash and  austerity in Irish society.

[TJ in Oregon]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

What is this a reference to?

Probably related to the fact that since the election, one of the big topics of analysis and discussion is if Sinn Fein is ready for primetime. Their delegation has made a made a number of outlandish remarks over the past week, which is rather understandable since their 'throwaway' candidates got elected. Then there is the problem that beyond a few at the top, Sinn Fein seems to want to use their position for nationalist policy, not the housing and healthcare issues that brought them here.

But the issue based polling on this election shows that nationalism was the main area in which their voters stood out from the general Irish public, not housing and healthcare. There are polls that have been posted both here and AAD showing SF voters views on standard fare social and economic policy are all over the place, and in many cases indistinguishable from FF and FG voters' views. The one topic that SF supports really stand out is exactly issues of Irish nationalism.

That is their issue. As has been discussed many times here, irish parties don't differ that much. But the reason why they surged (especially in urban areas) was because SF promised silver bullets on those issues, campaigning off of FG and FFs failings to deal with or prevent the aftereffects of the crash and  austerity in Irish society.

That if nothing else should suggest an explanation for why they aren't going to implement much change on standard policies: proposing silver bullets to a coalition of people disgruntled with the status quo but with no real ideological cohesion inevitably means that implementing some radical change is going to be a disaster. Better to press on their unifying niche issue.

As for Irish parties not differing that much, that is clearly true of FF and FG. However, the other left wing parties besides SF do differ quite drastically from FF/FG. The point here was that SF voters' opinions are closer to those of FF and FG voters than they are of the left wing minor parties: SocDems, Greens, Labour, Trots, etc. With the main exception being Irish nationalism.

[Intell]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

What is this a reference to?

Probably related to the fact that since the election, one of the big topics of analysis and discussion is if Sinn Fein is ready for primetime. Their delegation has made a made a number of outlandish remarks over the past week, which is rather understandable since their 'throwaway' candidates got elected. Then there is the problem that beyond a few at the top, Sinn Fein seems to want to use their position for nationalist policy, not the housing and healthcare issues that brought them here.

But the issue based polling on this election shows that nationalism was the main area in which their voters stood out from the general Irish public, not housing and healthcare. There are polls that have been posted both here and AAD showing SF voters views on standard fare social and economic policy are all over the place, and in many cases indistinguishable from FF and FG voters' views. The one topic that SF supports really stand out is exactly issues of Irish nationalism.

That is their issue. As has been discussed many times here, irish parties don't differ that much. But the reason why they surged (especially in urban areas) was because SF promised silver bullets on those issues, campaigning off of FG and FFs failings to deal with or prevent the aftereffects of the crash and  austerity in Irish society.

That if nothing else should suggest an explanation for why they aren't going to implement much change on standard policies: proposing silver bullets to a coalition of people disgruntled with the status quo but with no real ideological cohesion inevitably means that implementing some radical change is going to be a disaster. Better to press on their unifying niche issue.

As for Irish parties not differing that much, that is clearly true of FF and FG. However, the other left wing parties besides SF do differ quite drastically from FF/FG. The point here was that SF voters' opinions are closer to those of FF and FG voters than they are of the left wing minor parties: SocDems, Greens, Labour, Trots, etc. With the main exception being Irish nationalism.

I would say there are clear sociological differences between FF/SF voters and FG voters. SF voters opinion are similar to FF if middle-aged or older and to S-PBP if younger.   

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-reada-cronin-twitter-comments-pearse-doherty-5012894-Feb2020/%3famp=1

Holy f**k, what a deeply antisemitic person.
Some of the things she said:
* The Mossad intervened in Britain against Corbyn
* Said "I thought this was the Israeli embassy" about a picture of monkeys sitting near computers
* Claimed Israel "took Nazism to a new level" with the "genocide" in Gaza
* Shared a conspiracy that Hitler was a fion of Jewish bankers and that Jewish bankers caused European wars

The fact that Sinn Fein responded weakly by excusing her because she apologized is disqualifying. If she was so racist towards any other population, she'd be crucified by the left.

[YL]

Votes for Taoiseach have been happening this evening.

The figures RTE has are
Varadkar: yes 36, no 107, abstentions 16
Martin: yes 41, no 97, abstentions 19
McDonald: yes 45, no 84, abstentions 29
Ryan: yes 12, no 115, abstentions 28

[LabourJersey]

Votes for Taoiseach have been happening this evening.

The figures RTE has are
Varadkar: yes 36, no 107, abstentions 16
Martin: yes 41, no 97, abstentions 19
McDonald: yes 45, no 84, abstentions 29
Ryan: yes 12, no 115, abstentions 28

Does this mean that the onus is on McDonald to try to form a coalition with her as Taoiseach, or does this not really effect the ongoing attempt to form a gov't?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Doesn't make too much difference. FF are refusing to work with SF, so whilst McDonald is talking to the indies and the smaller parties, the numbers probably aren't there.

On the flipside, FG have now agreed to meet with FF, but they still seem committed to doing the absolute minimum that they can get away with in terms of engagement.

[brucejoel99]

You know, the way that this is all being reported on & the way that people online are posting about it, you'd swear that this was the first time that Ireland has ever had a general election.

[Flyersfan232]

Doesn't make too much difference. FF are refusing to work with SF, so whilst McDonald is talking to the indies and the smaller parties, the numbers probably aren't there.

On the flipside, FG have now agreed to meet with FF, but they still seem committed to doing the absolute minimum that they can get away with in terms of engagement.

I think ff will come around to working with sf.

[CumbrianLefty]

Doesn't make too much difference. FF are refusing to work with SF, so whilst McDonald is talking to the indies and the smaller parties, the numbers probably aren't there.

On the flipside, FG have now agreed to meet with FF, but they still seem committed to doing the absolute minimum that they can get away with in terms of engagement.

I think ff will come around to working with sf.

Eventually, but maybe not before another election?

[Epaminondas]

the way that this is all being reported on, you'd swear that this was the first time that Ireland has ever had a general election.

It's the first time since 1932 that neither one of the main two conservative parties has not come first in the popular vote.

So yes, it is quite a game changer. Irish history has been unforgiving towards reformists, this is a crack in a door that's never been opened.

[BP🌹]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

[TJ in Oregon]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

Sinn Fein is the kind of party that will need to be in government before its support stops rising. Right now they have the ability to just criticize everyone without owning any blame.

[brucejoel99]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

Perhaps FF/FG should try bringing up the IRA again?

[CumbrianLefty]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

Perhaps FF/FG should try bringing up the IRA again?

Is this sarcasm?

[brucejoel99]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

Perhaps FF/FG should try bringing up the IRA again?

Is this sarcasm?

Sarcasm?! Nooooo not at all!

[CumbrianLefty]

Soz, but its genuinely hard to tell sometimes

[EastAnglianLefty]

Looks like a FF/FG deal is now on the cards: https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0311/1121563-politics/