Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)
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Author Topic: Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)  (Read 29261 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #250 on: March 11, 2020, 06:34:45 AM »

Can't see that going wrong at all.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #251 on: March 11, 2020, 08:11:41 AM »

Who is going to provide the necessary 8+ votes for FF/FG to pass legislation? Or will that change on a case by case basis?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #252 on: March 11, 2020, 09:30:14 AM »

They'd like to get the Greens on board, but it's unclear whether the Green membership are dumb enough to fall for that again. Failing that, there are enough independents from the FF and FG gene pools to get them to 80.

Certainly it's the only remotely stable government that looks plausible with this Dáil, although it probably also guarantees SF will get at least 30% of the vote next time.
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DANNT
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« Reply #253 on: March 11, 2020, 09:57:55 AM »

They'd like to get the Greens on board, but it's unclear whether the Green membership are dumb enough to fall for that again. Failing that, there are enough independents from the FF and FG gene pools to get them to 80.

Certainly it's the only remotely stable government that looks plausible with this Dáil, although it probably also guarantees SF will get at least 30% of the vote next time.

PLease explain why SF would do so well to a stupid american please
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #254 on: March 11, 2020, 10:22:51 AM »

Because neither FF nor FG have any interest in fixing the housing crisis or making any substantial changes to current government policy, so the electorate isn't going to get any less pissed off.

Also, a FF-FG coalition does make it even more difficult to insist that they're actually meaningfully different parties from each other, which means both will probably struggle to keep all their current support in the tent.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #255 on: March 11, 2020, 12:38:49 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2020, 12:51:43 PM by ObserverIE »

Because neither FF nor FG have any interest in fixing the housing crisis or making any substantial changes to current government policy, so the electorate isn't going to get any less pissed off.

Also, a FF-FG coalition does make it even more difficult to insist that they're actually meaningfully different parties from each other, which means both will probably struggle to keep all their current support in the tent.

Rationally, FF do have an interest "in fixing the housing crisis or making any substantial changes to current government policy" and a lot of FF's backbenchers are making that point directly at party meetings, but FF's leader knows that it's now or never for him personally if he wants to be Taoiseach and is determined to bulldoze any internal opposition in order to get his way. Whether or not we'll see TD defections as a result remains to be seen, but I would expect to see councillors and ordinary members walking at the prospect of putting FG back into office.

Of course, FG also know that Martin is desperate and has no other options, so they're likely to push their luck as much as possible in negotiations, possibly forcing Martin to wait his turn as Taoiseach while Varadkar stays in office for the next couple of years for "continuity's sake", and ensuring that FG policies on housing (do as little as possible and let The Market sort it out), the health service (do as little as possible) and taxation (concentrate tax cuts on the better-off) remain in place.

The Greens would be fools to sign up for this, but their leader is a posh clown on a bicycle from Ranelagh who thinks that reintroducing wolves into the least empty countryside in western Europe apart from Benelux is a good idea and who is also desperate to get into government, so we know what the outcome of that is likely to be.

Essentially this is going to be a FG government with two versions of Nick Clegg as supporting partners and the outcome of the next election will see FF's vote collapse (some of it going to FG but a lot to SF) and the return of the Greens to electoral obscurity. The South Dublin haut bourgeois and the pearl-clutching commentariat are going to be given a three, perhaps, four-year respite before the tsunami hits at the next election and they will deserve everything that's coming to them. The rest of us, however, will have to live with it as well.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #256 on: March 11, 2020, 03:42:06 PM »

Update: Green Party discovers spine, inserts it into party leader via enema.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #257 on: March 11, 2020, 06:58:54 PM »

Why don't FF/FG just go with a minority government propped up by bribing indies? Or maybe by Irish Labour, they seem to genuinely like suicide? (FF-FG-Lab is technically short by 1 but I'm sure there must be a bribable indie out there)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #258 on: March 11, 2020, 07:26:51 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2020, 08:28:01 PM by ObserverIE »

Why don't FF/FG just go with a minority government propped up by bribing indies? Or maybe by Irish Labour, they seem to genuinely like suicide? (FF-FG-Lab is technically short by 1 but I'm sure there must be a bribable indie out there)

Much harder to get to 80, particularly if any disgruntled FF TDs jump ship. Even among the independents, the gene-pool FG independents (Lowry, Naughten, Fitzpatrick, Verona Murphy) might be up for it but it will be a harder sell for the gene-pool FFers. The "Regional Independents" have 9, and from those you have the four open ex-FGers named, along with Grealish and Canney who supported the last government and possibly Shanahan who is allegedly a stealth FGer, but Peadar Tóibín (Aontú) won't support FG, so that leaves you at a maximum of 80. The "Rural Independents" (Healys-Rae et al) are primarily ex-FFers who would be in sympathy with the FF backbenchers and are too cute to get involved with an obviously doomed project, and the third group of independents (Joan Collins, Pringle, Catherine Connolly, McNamara, Marian Harkin and Fitzmaurice) are left to centrist (in that order) and are the least likely to bite ideologically.

Regardless of whether the suppurating corpse of the Labour Party ends up being led by AK Water Pistol or Captain NIMBY, they're not actually stupid enough to prop up FG again. I think Unsure .
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #259 on: March 12, 2020, 07:29:44 AM »

Why don't FF/FG just go with a minority government propped up by bribing indies? Or maybe by Irish Labour, they seem to genuinely like suicide? (FF-FG-Lab is technically short by 1 but I'm sure there must be a bribable indie out there)

Leaving a rising SF as the main opposition to a minority government that will start out of the gate as unpopular is pretty much a golden ticket to a SF majority government within two years.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #260 on: March 12, 2020, 08:04:48 AM »


Of course, FG also know that Martin is desperate and has no other options, so they're likely to push their luck as much as possible in negotiations, possibly forcing Martin to wait his turn as Taoiseach while Varadkar stays in office for the next couple of years for "continuity's sake", and ensuring that FG policies on housing (do as little as possible and let The Market sort it out), the health service (do as little as possible) and taxation (concentrate tax cuts on the better-off) remain in place.

How realistic is it that FF's parliamentary group would accept such a humiliation?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #261 on: March 13, 2020, 12:18:46 PM »


Of course, FG also know that Martin is desperate and has no other options, so they're likely to push their luck as much as possible in negotiations, possibly forcing Martin to wait his turn as Taoiseach while Varadkar stays in office for the next couple of years for "continuity's sake", and ensuring that FG policies on housing (do as little as possible and let The Market sort it out), the health service (do as little as possible) and taxation (concentrate tax cuts on the better-off) remain in place.

How realistic is it that FF's parliamentary group would accept such a humiliation?

It may be difficult enough to get FF's parliamentary group to accept coalition in the first place, but Martin is absolutely desperate.
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crals
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« Reply #262 on: March 13, 2020, 03:27:18 PM »

What happened to "SF should get the first try at government", did they actually try to cobble some kind of coalition? Is Martin desperate enough to try a FF/SF coalition?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #263 on: March 13, 2020, 03:37:41 PM »

What happened to "SF should get the first try at government", did they actually try to cobble some kind of coalition? Is Martin desperate enough to try a FF/SF coalition?

On your first question, they did. It didn't last long - too many people said they or their parties were opposed to working with SF. Others on the minor side of things said they wouldn't expect such a govt to work.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #264 on: March 15, 2020, 10:22:23 AM »
« Edited: March 15, 2020, 10:47:33 AM by ObserverIE »

What happened to "SF should get the first try at government", did they actually try to cobble some kind of coalition? Is Martin desperate enough to try a FF/SF coalition?

Martin ruled it out during the campaign (although he also ruled out a FF-FG coalition - the plan was to woo the Greens, Labour and the SDs and add enough sympathetic independents to get to 80, but FF's bad performance ruled that out). On the day of the count he seemed to soften on the idea only to be contradicted by other senior FFers like Jim O'Callaghan who represents one of the most middle-class constituencies in Dublin and the anti-SF line was restored. Ironically, O'Callaghan has now switched to supporting the idea of a three-party national government arrangement between FF/FG/SF - how much of this is principled reconsideration and how much is playing to the degree of anti-FG sentiment within the FF organization in preparation for a leadership bid remains to be seen.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #265 on: March 31, 2020, 05:04:33 PM »

https://www.irishpost.com/news/opinion-poll-sees-surge-support-fine-gael-amid-ongoing-covid-19-crisis-182436

Seem legit?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #266 on: March 31, 2020, 06:06:16 PM »


Wouldn't doubt it. The consensus appears to be that Leo has shown tremendous leadership during this time.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #267 on: April 04, 2020, 08:22:31 AM »

" ... this week's election of a new Seanad appears to have narrowed political options. It's the view of the Attorney General, and the Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach, that the Seanad can't be properly constituted until a new Taoiseach appoints 11 new Senators.

Whatever about the procedure, this means that the Government - in the middle of an unprecedented crisis - can't pass any legislation. That alone should be enough to pressurise parties into making decisions which either elect a new government or - yes it's possible - precipitate a new General Election."

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0330/1127234-politics-government/
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Gary J
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« Reply #268 on: April 04, 2020, 04:32:51 PM »

I see the Irish government used the last sitting day of the 25th Seanad, to pass emergency Coronavirus legislation. Interestingly Simon Coveney and Paschal Donohue, the second and third ranking members of the cabinet, both attended the Seanad to shepherd the legislation to pass unamended. I doubt that level of ministerial involvement is normal in Seanad sessions.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/debate/seanad/2020-03-27/
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #269 on: May 04, 2020, 04:22:12 AM »

The Green Party's TDs have voted to enter formal government formation discussions with FG and FF: https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0503/1136300-green-party-discussions-government/

This is the easy bit, though. Getting the membership to sign off on a deal would be much more difficult.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #270 on: May 04, 2020, 05:10:16 AM »

POLL: Business Post/Red C
(April 23-29; MoE unstated, likely 3%)

Fine Gael: 35 (+1 in five weeks)
Sinn Féin: 27 (-1)
Fianna Fáil: 14 (-4)
Independents: 8 (+3)
Greens: 6 (+1)
Labour: 3
Social Democrats: 3
Solidarity-PBP: 2
Aontú: 1 (-1)
Renua: 1 (+1)

12% of voters are undecided.

👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #271 on: May 22, 2020, 12:14:57 PM »

If Varadkar’s numbers stay up, is it possible that he can force the others to give him a government? If so, not bad for a party that is in third place, even if it’s a very close third.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #272 on: May 22, 2020, 06:08:10 PM »

If Varadkar’s numbers stay up, is it possible that he can force the others to give him a government? If so, not bad for a party that is in third place, even if it’s a very close third.

He is a doctor and apparently has gone back to practicing so I think based on what is happening now that is quite timely.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #273 on: June 15, 2020, 12:32:30 PM »

Micheál Martin is set to be Taoiseach in a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party.
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Cassius
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« Reply #274 on: June 15, 2020, 03:07:22 PM »

Micheál Martin is set to be Taoiseach in a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

Although with the caveat that this deal needs to get past the memberships of the three parties (and the Greens, I believe, require a two thirds majority, so their membership could easily scupper it).

Anyway, assuming this does go through and the coalition lasts the distance, I assume whoever is UK PM in five years time will be saying hello Mary Lou when he calls to conduct socially distanced negotiations over the future of the Irish border.
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