Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[brucejoel99]

It'll be the first Saturday election since the first Dáil/last Westminster election in 1918.

[brucejoel99]

A new poll puts SF on 25%, FF 23% and FG 20%

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-leads-way-in-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-poll-with-highest-support-ever-1.4160461

A surge in support for SF is being driven among the under-50s and working class voters.

Irish reunification happens in 2024 according to Star Trek: TNG, so this does seem like a necessary step

[brucejoel99]

Leo ought to be very pleased that he & FG have avoid their predicted wipeout. And of course FF probably isn't too happy that they've failed to capitalize on FG's supposed unpopularity.

Looking forward to the count tomorrow!

Looks like Varadkar may get to remain taoiseach of Ireland although I suspect it will take a while perhaps a few months before we know what the shape of the next government is.  Also possible like Spain and Israel, this results in another election.  Either way, I suspect that either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail will form government, but who will be part of it will be interesting.  Sinn Fein due to limited # of candidates and both main parties promising not to go into coalition with them likely won't and indeed the fear Sinn Fein will run a full slate next time around is probably why some agreement will be formed.  If Sinn Fein ran a full slate, there is a chance they might be able to form a left wing coalition with Greens + Labour + Social Democrats + People before Profit as exit poll puts those parties combined at 41% but this time around pretty sure they will fall short so that won't be viable.  Although good chance coalition includes one of the left wing parties, most likely Greens.

No way either FF or FG will have another election, especially one in which SF would greatly increase the number of candidates they have standing. There will 100% be another confidence & supply deal between FG & FF.

[brucejoel99]

Looking like the final result will be something along the lines of the following:

FF 39
SF 38
FG 36
Greens 11
SD 6
Lab 5
Sol-PBP 5
Indies 20

This would mean no combination of the big three would be large enough, so they'd need either the Greens, a collection of independents or the rotting corpse of Irish Labour to prop them up.

While it's certainly the dawn of a new era, I feel like these results will suit nobody. The only way to win is to not play. Personally, I think whomever enters government is likely to be ousted in the next few months & see their credibility tank. Then again, we could all be surprised & see dramatic changes suddenly happen.

[brucejoel99]

It'll be fascinating to see where things go from here.

You'd think that having the most seats would mean that the negotiations are FF's game to run now but they've been pretty clear in interviews that they see SF as having won & that it's SF's mess to sort out. All indications from FF are that they're gonna  sit back & give McDonald the first shot at forming a government.

The cynic in me thinks that FF knows there isn't a workable coalition to be found & are trying to preemptively avoid any blame for the negotiations failing, but maybe they're just trying to buy time to get their house in order before dealing with SF?

FG seem keen in interviews to emphasize that they came in 3rd & to downplay any mandate that they might have to govern, so it looks like they're eager to go into opposition & wash their hands of the situation. Hence, not expecting them to do deals with anybody.

So I guess the next step is an attempt at a broad coalition of SF + left-wing parties + independents, but does anybody really expect that to come to anything workable? As far as I can see it, SF & FF will eventually have to come together (with the Greens &/or other parties too) or there'll have to be another election.

[brucejoel99]

It'll be fascinating to see where things go from here.

You'd think that having the most seats would mean that the negotiations are FF's game to run now but they've been pretty clear in interviews that they see SF as having won & that it's SF's mess to sort out. All indications from FF are that they're gonna  sit back & give McDonald the first shot at forming a government.

The cynic in me thinks that FF knows there isn't a workable coalition to be found & are trying to preemptively avoid any blame for the negotiations failing, but maybe they're just trying to buy time to get their house in order before dealing with SF?

FG seem keen in interviews to emphasize that they came in 3rd & to downplay any mandate that they might have to govern, so it looks like they're eager to go into opposition & wash their hands of the situation. Hence, not expecting them to do deals with anybody.

So I guess the next step is an attempt at a broad coalition of SF + left-wing parties + independents, but does anybody really expect that to come to anything workable? As far as I can see it, SF & FF will eventually have to come together (with the Greens &/or other parties too) or there'll have to be another election.

Everyone (except SF, who can't cobble together a coalition without one of the other two big parties) is disclaiming a desire to govern, so it seems fairly clear this is going to go to another election rather quickly because no one has an incentive to compromise.

Not necessarily. I'm sure that FF are waiting to see SF fail at an SF+others coalition as that'd give FF a lot more negotiating power.

[brucejoel99]

You know, the way that this is all being reported on & the way that people online are posting about it, you'd swear that this was the first time that Ireland has ever had a general election.

[brucejoel99]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

Perhaps FF/FG should try bringing up the IRA again?

[brucejoel99]

It kinda seems like there's some buyer's remorse.

I guess I was wrong. A poll shows that SF would easily win a new election:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-politics/sinn-fein-would-easily-win-repeat-irish-election-poll-idUKKBN20N12G

Perhaps FF/FG should try bringing up the IRA again?

Is this sarcasm?

Sarcasm?! Nooooo not at all!

[brucejoel99]

https://www.irishpost.com/news/opinion-poll-sees-surge-support-fine-gael-amid-ongoing-covid-19-crisis-182436

Seem legit?

Wouldn't doubt it. The consensus appears to be that Leo has shown tremendous leadership during this time.

[brucejoel99]

The position of Taoiseach will rotate though (Israeli model), in 2022 Varadkar is set to become Prime Minister again.

If they're gonna have a rotation agreement, then wouldn't it make the most sense (especially considering the ongoing crisis) to keep Varadkar for the first part of it & then switch to Martin in '22? For continuity's sake, if nothing else?

[brucejoel99]

I presume Varadkar will be given Foreign Affairs in addition to being Tánaiste, & imagine Martin will also do what Kenny & Varadkar did by keeping Defence for himself?

[brucejoel99]

New Irish cabinet announced.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0627/1149987-politics-tracker/

At least Barry Cowen ended up as Minister for Agriculture, Food & the Marine rather than Public Expenditure & Reform (which is what he was serving as FF's spokesman for). Yes, that family may have more experience reforming the public finances than anybody else in Ireland, but only in much the same way that wrecking balls have experience with architecture.